Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Chris Dixon: A New Breed Early Stage Investor



Chris Dixon is a New Yorker. Chris Dixon has a day job. He is working to build a middle range, ambitious company. Hunch is one of those post-algorithm search engines. They try to bring in the human element more front and center.

Chris Dixon was not trained as a techie. He did not learn programming at school. But he is very much a creature of the tech world, the startup world. He very much fits my definition of a techie. He belongs. He will rule.

I wish more prominent tech entrepreneurs blogged like Chris Dixon does. But his blog is less that of a tech entrepreneur, and more that of an early stage investor.

I think Chris Dixon's real calling is not that he is a tech entrepreneur, but that he is one of those who are really defining early stage investing. If you listen to Dixon, you will think VCs are dinosaurs. They don't "get" it. They are not hands on enough. They don't really get their hands dirty. Writing checks no longer does it. You really have to be involved.

And this blog post by Chris Dixon is a jewel. It really distills a lot of what he has said over time.
GigaOm: Chris Dixon To VCs: Act More Like Startups: “have fewer meetings” and “have everyone at the firm blog/tweet.” ..... venture firms should act more like the startups they invest in, right down to his suggestion that they “have offices that look and cost like startup offices — or better yet, don’t have offices at all [and] spend your time visiting companies.” ..... VCs should not “talk/tweet/blog about your vineyard, yachting, golfing etc. while you tell your CEOs to work non-stop and be frugal.” ..... “Stop kidding yourself that you add a lot of value beyond recruiting/intros/governance/financing/selling companies.” ..... “Say no to companies. Saying “come back later” feels like a free option to you but actually hurts you and the startup in the long run.”

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StartUp Anxiety For FourSquare?

Image representing Foursquare as depicted in C...Image via CrunchBase
I touched upon this topic in a blog post weeks back when Facebook Places just went live.

Facebook Doing Location Is Like Google Doing Social, Almost

In light of this New York Observer article (In Facebook's Crosshairs), I feel the need to elaborate a little.
New York Observer: In Facebook's Crosshairs: He didn't make the trip himself, sending in his stead Foursquare's new VP for mobile and partnerships, a fellow named Holger Luedorf, who spoke at the event for only a few minutes and made clear that Foursquare was not yet sure about the nature of its "partnership" with Facebook. ...... The next day, Mr. Crowley wrote on Twitter that his 86-year-old grandma had called him and remarked that this Facebook thing "sounds like Four-Squared, but without the fun." .... the New York City tech scene, which badly needs a major local success story ..... turning their fledgling service—currently at some three million registered users and growing by about 18,000 new users per day—into the city's first true social media juggernaut. ...... Crowley wants Foursquare to transcend its status as a niche mobile check-in tool, and to become the platform upon which all other check-in tools, whatever they turn out to be, are built. ...... —if you control the infrastructure, you control the market. We see the same thing with Twitter and with Apple." ...... "My personal view is, it's going to be huge—Facebook huge," said Hunch founder Chris Dixon, an investor in Foursquare who is not known for polite optimism. "They'll have a huge brand and a direct relationship with users. ... They absolutely could become the dominant platform upon which all check-in services are built." ........ "your favorite, er, mobile + social + friend finder + social city guide + nightlife game thing" ...... Facebook's apparent desire to become the dominant platform for check-ins did not worry him ...... We're developing this really deep and rich road map for what we're going to do ..... the implementation of Places would be good for Foursquare in the long run because it meant Facebook would be doing the hard work of popularizing the hard-to-grasp concept of check-ins—location-based and otherwise—while the Foursquare crew was left to innovate and figure out new ways to make them useful to people and the businesses that want to sell them things. ........ Where Foursquare has an admired—some might say tricked out —API, Facebook has so far released only a read-only version of theirs, which severely limits what developers can build on top of it.
It is perhaps relevant to mention another company that I blogged about recently: FoodSpotting. That is a bi-coastal startup. But it does have a major New York City presence. So I guess hometown pride is warranted. But perhaps bi-coastal is the future. You get the best of both worlds. And you prove geography is not that relevant.

FoodSpotting does not do bland check ins, it does a very specific type of check ins. Does that mean FourSquare will some day wake up and eat up FoodSpotting for lunch? I don't see that as a possibility. FourSquare just can not do what FoodSpotting does. That same logic for Facebook, FourSquare is even more true. Facebook does not have the option to become an experience for which checking in is your starting point. On the other hand FourSquare could make claim that the FourSquare social graph is much more real than the Facebook social graph. The truth is they are just different.

FoodSpotting Is The Next FourSquare

Even if Facebook had not done Places, there were no guarantees FourSquare would survive and do well and see an IPO exit - my personal recommendation to the company - but the real news from the Facebook Places launch was it gave FourSquare a visibility that it never had before. How is that depressing? There were more check ins on FourSquare that day than any other day in recorded history.

If I were FourSquare, I'd still be more worried about Gowalla than Facebook, although I'd work extra hard to work out just the right partnership with Facebook.

The FourSquare founders are brimming with ideas they want to execute, features they want to add. The real action for FourSquare is in the front, it is not in the rear view mirror.

I look forward to FourSquare burning up all its 20 million and getting ready to raise its next round. Sooner is better.

It is unrealistic to think Facebook could have stayed away from the location space. It is also unrealistic to think Facebook can become the leader in the location space if checking in is not the starting point of the Facebook experience, which it isn't. Facebook Mobile is mini me. Facebook is a big screen web experience, primarily.
New York Observer: Foursquare’s Happy Growing Pains: Crowley said the space shortage has been not just inconvenient but detrimental to Foursquare's evolution ..... "There are three or four big-ticket items we've been talking about all summer," Mr. Crowley said. "All the specs are written—they're waiting there, like half of the designs are done—but they just haven't been implemented because we don't have an engineer that could work on it full time." ...."Or when the lounge furniture started coming together, it was like, 'Whoa, real conference rooms, with chairs!'"
In The News

VentureBeat: Blog Platform Tumblr’s Soaring Traffic Brings Growing Pains: seeing massive traffic growth ..... skyrocketed over the first half of the year and reached about 1.7 billion page views in the month of August. .... WordPress.com, an older, more established blog platform, recently reported 2.1 billion monthly pageviews ..... Tumblr, which employs about 10 people ..... Six Apart, a blogging pioneer whose TypePad service competes most directly with Automattic’s WordPress.com, recently announced it is folding the simplified blogging service Vox, which never gained firm traction after four years of existence. ..... You can give this to somebody who can barely program a VCR and they can do a blog post in a minute.” .... you can find a whole lot more of value on a Tumblr page potentially than on a Twitter page.

GigaOm: Chris Dixon To VCs: Act More Like Startups: “have fewer meetings” and “have everyone at the firm blog/tweet.” ..... venture firms should act more like the startups they invest in, right down to his suggestion that they “have offices that look and cost like startup offices — or better yet, don’t have offices at all [and] spend your time visiting companies.” ..... VCs should not “talk/tweet/blog about your vineyard, yachting, golfing etc. while you tell your CEOs to work non-stop and be frugal.” ..... “Stop kidding yourself that you add a lot of value beyond recruiting/intros/governance/financing/selling companies.” ..... “Say no to companies. Saying “come back later” feels like a free option to you but actually hurts you and the startup in the long run.”

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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Got Wings?

Sunrise - A Song of Two Humans (1927)Image by twm1340 via Flickr
Technology Review: Web Service Goes Date A-Mining: Unlike sites that rely on questionnaires, Wings tries to understand who you are by picking up the social media bread crumbs you leave online. ..... Wings doesn't ask you about yourself. It tells you. The service requires a Facebook account ..... All that data is fed into the service's recommendation engine. ..... Sunil Nagaraj, chief executive and cofounder of Triangulate, the company behind Wings. ..... The company raised $750,000 in July .... the density of one's social network turns out to be an important factor ..... couples tend to be well suited if they have similar percentages of friends from their own country versus other countries. It matters as well whether your Netflix rental or music playlist history tends toward the mainstream or underground. And couples that have lots of overlap in the types of people they follow on Twitter tend to match well ...... collecting and analyzing social data the way Wings does could be a new branch in the evolution of Web services that make smarter recommendations without having to be told something twice --or even once.

This comes across to me as the next wavelet for the social web's evolution rather than finally that it service that will find us all our soulmates that other dating sites or we ourselves can't. Relationships are mysterious things. Statistical analysis might show most white people go for white people, black for black, brown for brown, but recommending the same might reenforce a pattern that perhaps has been steadily breaking.

But it's good to see yet another startup taking a crack at online dating. Online dating sure is a growing phenomenon. A lot of people also in crowded cities like New York seem to find online dating preferable to meeting someone random at some bar.

It is not one or the other. What works for you works for you. It could be online. It could be offline. It could be a friend of a friend. It could be a perfect stranger.

Relationship building though you get to do on your own. There is not yet a site for that.

Technology Review

What's Next for the Netflix Algorithms?: more than 100 million ratings covering almost 18,000 titles from nearly half a million subscribers ..... combining lots of algorithms with machine-learning techniques might be a good approach to handling large datasets in general .... such algorithms could be applied in market trading, fraud detection, spam-fighting, and computer security

Can You Trust Crowd Wisdom?those ratings can easily be swayed by a small group of highly active users. ..... studied voting patterns on Amazon, the Internet Movie Database (IMDb), and the book review site BookCrossings .... In each case, they found that a small number of users accounted for a large number of ratings.

Digging a Smarter Crowd Instead of using the characteristics of articles to run its recommendation engine's algorithms, Digg's system is based entirely on calculating connections between users

Getting Computers Into the Groove Computers have revolutionized the production, distribution and consumption of music, but when it comes to recommending a good tune, they're still sorely lacking..... more automated methods of music search and recommendation could become important as on-demand music becomes more popular, and sites feel increased pressure to help users find new music...... while analyzing music using computers is "a very interesting and promising area of research," it will be hard to create a music search engine that's both general and fully automatic. "Music similarity is such a personal and variable thing," Crawford says. "Two heavy-metal tracks may seem highly similar to a classical-music expert like me, but entirely different to a heavy-metal enthusiast, who may in turn regard the music of Brahms and Tchaikovsky as very similar, which would be laughable to me."

Recommendation Nation The truth is that I now get more good recommendations about more things, more often, from Bayesian algorithms than from my best friends..... Better tech­nology doesn't mean worse friends.

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Top 10 YouTube Videos Of All Time

Top 10 YouTube Videos Of All Time










Monday, September 06, 2010

Offerpal Media: New CEO

Image representing Offerpal Media as depicted ...Image via CrunchBaseVentureBeat: Offerpal Media Names A New CEO During A Tough Transition: Mihir Shah as its new chief executive and president. .... Garrick will become executive chairman. Garrick himself replaced Offerpal’s founding chief executive, Anu Shukla, in October, 2009. During his tenure, Garrick was trying to reposition Offerpal in the wake of a scandal over the legitimacy of the offer business. ..... the whole offer industry was hurt last fall by a storm over offers that appeared to be scams, duping consumers with misleading or objectionable offers. ..... moved to clean up its offers, setting new standards to lock out the scammers..... began streamlining the company and broadened its appeal to advertisers by moving beyond offers. Offerpal also bought mobile ad network firm Tapjoy in March. ...... “The social and mobile gaming spaces are in a transitional and converging period right now, and we have some exciting ideas for using our extensive footprint and expertise to help game developers, social platforms and online advertisers navigate the changing environment."

The Highlight Of My Internet Week
Anu Shukla Has Found The New Frontier In Advertising

Some shady vendors used the Offerpal Media platform to do some shady things, but Google still suffers from click fraud. That does not change the fact that what Offerpal Media is attempting is at the cutting edge of advertising.

It is a new frontier. Mistakes will be made.


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Android Ascendancy

GigaOm: U.S. Mobile Web Usage A Win-Win for Google: Android has a 25 percent share of mobile usage, up from around 10 percent last November .... Apple’s iOS platform, which powers the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad, currently stands at 56 percent, down from a peak of nearly 70 percent at the end of 2009 ..... Google comes out a winner both today and in the foreseeable future due to mobile search. The main source of Google revenue is indeed search, but the real growth is in searching for data away from the desktop...... Essentially, Google has benefitted from mobile search since the iPhone launched in 2007 with Google as the default search engine. But now the search giant is outselling other mobile platforms

It is only a matter of time before Android's share surpasses that of the Apple platform. Steve Jobs set out to make expensive cars. That is his thing. There are cheap cars, and there are expensive cars. Steve Jobs is the guy who makes expensive cars.

Apple's business model has worked for Apple. The company surpassed Microsoft's market value, did it not? That is not my definition of failure. But a company that never set to reach the masses will not reach the masses. No surprises there.

Wait until the Chrome OS netbooks hit the market.

Microsoft feels like a loser in the mobile space now. After the Chrome OS netbooks appear, it is going to get hit big time on the desktop as well.

This dog - Google - is going to hunt.

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The Facebook Search Engine

Facebook founder Mark ZuckerbergImage via WikipediaNo surprise there. The whole idea behind the like button has been to take over the web. Mark Zuckerberg made it very clear in his speech at the F8 conference that that is what the like button was for. Just like Facebook should be your primary place online, the like button should tell you where to go instead of the links that the Google engine depends on. That was the hint.
GigaOm: Facebook Ramping Up The Social In Its Search Engine: The new feature is the latest step in rolling out the network’s social-search engine — which could become a competitive threat for Google and other traditional search companies, as more users turn to recommendations from their networks instead of those determined by algorithms.
What has been giving me headaches for months and months now is as to why Facebook will not make it possible for me to search my own wall, and that of my friends. If I could I might be able to use my Facebook wall as the repository of links I might want to visit later on. That would be a huge incentive for me to share more links on Facebook. That in turn would make Facebook searches even better.
GigaOm: Is Facebook's Social Search Engine A Google Killer?: one of the company’s goals was to use the resulting behavioral data to power a social search engine — one based on likes instead of links .... more than a million websites — including some highly trafficked sites such as The Huffington Post — have integrated its features, and 150 million of the network’s more than 400 million users “engage with Facebook” in some way through external sites every month. ...... Being able to search for recommendations from close to half a billion users could be very powerful..... since Facebook’s Open Graph protocol is theoretically an open standard, there is the potential for Google to use that to pull in the network’s results in the same way it uses Twitter’s API ...... gave the network a relatively puny 2.7 percent share of the U.S. search business, but still put it ahead of AOL.
The human part is when I press that like button, which I do all the time. (Hello Mark!) The machine part is what Facebook does after I have already pressed that like button. The human part was when someone placed that link. The machine part was Google making sense of the link. There are clear parallels.
All Facebook: BREAKING: Facebook Now Displaying All Liked News Articles In Search Results: based on two things: the number of likes and the number of friends who liked that object ..... shows how important Facebook’s Open Graph is to the future of the company. ..... the content displayed “is only available for articles shared by your direct friends (not globally to all users on Facebook).” Additionally, “This is not surfaced to you based solely on number of ‘Likes’ for the article.”

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Links And Likes

DSC_3551Image by Mars Chen via FlickrMark Zuckerberg, the Facebook dude, wants likes to replace links. And I think that is a tall order. I don't think that is possible.

But that like button is so very key to the social web. There the like button will rule. If you are only trying to figure out what you and your social graph might be interested in, then who cares about the world wide web at large? Many people in Manhattan are familiar with only two blocks, the block they live on, and the block where they work. There the like button will rule.

But what Zuck is betting on is if half a billion going on one billion people will start pressing on that like button, and then it is no longer just the social web as seen by one person. It is at that point the web itself. How is pressing a like button all that different from linking to a page. Pressing a like button perhaps is more democratic. Facebook gives most people that homepage that they always wanted but they never had because, well, it was too complicated to create one. And the like button is what the link code used to be. The link code was simple enough, basic HTML was simple enough, but says who? You can always make it simpler.

One reason Twitter is not as big as Facebook is because Twitter is too complicated.

What in the world is a hash tag? What is RT? Think about it.

But the link is not going away. There are people like me who can't be contained in two or four blocks. The link code is here to stay. One just hopes search engines (Hello Google!) get better and better at making sense of those links, they get better at staying ahead of those who try to game the search engines.
GigaOm: Links: Not Just The Currency Of The Web, But The Soul: links are a tool for synthesis, “a way of drawing connections between things,” to bring coherence to the vast universe of information online. “The Web’s links don’t make it a vast wasteland or a murky shallows,” Rosenberg says, “they organize and enrich it.” ..... The whole idea behind Tim Berners-Lee’s invention was to enable sites to point to each other and create a “web” of context. .... To choose not to link is to abandon the medium’s most powerful tool — the thing that makes the Web a web.” Hear, hear.

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Privacy Anxieties And The Web Of Intent

GigaOm: The Web Of Intent Is Coming (Sooner Than You Think): more robust content filtering tools and the Web of Intent will arrive sooner than you think, based on the implicit messages in users’ actions..... The Web of Intent will be largely driven by consumers’ actions and interests..... They will be able to quickly transform their content operations beyond articles and blog posts into data and interest-centric publishing structures that allow consumers to follow topics and ongoing stories of interest. ..... a Web of Intent rich in data and profiling based on their audiences’ interests. ...... will offer newer and more robust targeting opportunities and will ultimately provide publishers new opportunities for monetization beyond pure advertising ..... make their sites more “intent-friendly”

This intent talk is at the other end of the privacy spectrum. You do want the site to know who you are, what your interests are, what you want, so the site can better serve you.

We want privacy, but we also want the web of intent, and I don't see a clash there. Just like it is possible to be for economic growth and for the environment at the same time.

Privacy is a value, but it is also a technological challenge. The web of intent is a major technological challenge. Now all websites pretty much have blogs, and Facebook and Twitter presences. The web of intent will similarly permeate.

We will get to keep our cake and eat it too, for the most part. There are always some standard deviations.

Privacy, Digital Literacy, Technology, Social Values

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A Huawei Smartphone: Ideos

New York Times: Bits: Chinese Company Aims Big With Android Smartphone: a “$150 smartphone that is similar to an iPhone user experience.” The company said it wanted to show that it could create a technologically advanced smartphone at a more affordable price.

It is ridiculous that an iPhone costs as much as a low end Dell laptop. This Chinese entry into the smartphone market reminds me of the $35 tablet to come out of India. ($35 PC)

The Ideos seems to have global ambitions. It runs on Android, predictably.

This is not really news. By now China has a track record. It was only a matter of time before some Chinese company entered the Android market.

It is the PC, Mac thing all over again. Android is PC and Android is poised to take over the iPhone in sheer volume.

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Hurd: From HP To Oracle

Steven Paul Jobs, called Steve Jobs, co-founde...Image via Wikipedia
New York Times: Former H.P. Chief May Move To Oracle: In an e-mail to The New York Times, Mr. Ellison called the H.P. board’s action “the worst personnel decision since the idiots on the Apple board fired Steve Jobs many years ago.” .... Oracle, which Mr. Ellison founded 30 years ago, is the world’s largest database software maker; Mr. Ellison has been its only chief executive. For years, the company has been a close partner with H.P., which sells computing systems and services to corporations. But since Oracle’s acquisition of Sun Microsystems, in a deal that closed early this year, Oracle and H.P. have become competitors in the market for computer hardware..... Ellison remains heavily involved in Oracle, but the day-to-day operations are largely overseen by two presidents .... During his tenure, H.P. surpassed I.B.M. as the No. 1 technology company, as revenue increased to $115 billion a year, from $80 billion.

I have not read up much on this Hurd story, and I am reading now only because Larry Ellison seems to have become personally involved.

What happened?

Mark Hurd was the top guy at HP. He was never accused of having sexual relations with a marketing consultant to the company. Looks like the two had dinner together.

It is like finally the FBI said, Martha Stewart has not been proven guilty of what she was originally accused of, but since we went after her, we have decided she lied to us on one small detail of when were investigating, so Martha went to jail for a few months because she was not found guilty of what they thought she was guilty of. That was mediocre, sexist men going after a rare woman entrepreneur, a billionaire.

Mark Hurd did not have a relationship with this woman. He had dinner. Originally the HP Board thought maybe some form of impropriety took place. But by the time they found out that was not the case they realized they had already been going after him. So they had to get him for something.

And so they found some small detail.

I have not read much up on Hurd. Actually for the longest time I was angry they kicked Carly Fiorina out and got someone else.

Larry's language is pretty strong. I agree with the Apple idiots part. Steve Jobs and Larry Ellison are best friends. This perhaps gives Larry an opportunity to express again his anger at Steve Jobs' ouster from Apple back in the 1980s. That might be motivation enough. Otherwise Hurd is no Steve Jobs. Even Larry would agree. But the point is taken. They should never have fired Steve Jobs.

At the end of the day what has happened is Oracle has made a smart human resource move.

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Search Neutrality

Image representing Google as depicted in Crunc...Image via CrunchBase
New York Times: Bits: Texas Attorney General Investigates Google Search: “Given that not every Web site can be at the top of the results, or even appear on the first page of our results, it’s unsurprising that some less relevant, lower quality websites will be unhappy with their ranking” ..... The issue is front and center as Google moves into many new business areas, including local business listings, shopping comparison and travel...... Microsoft finances Foundem’s backer and that its antitrust attorneys represent the other two.

Google has become big enough that it should warrant an anti trust poke. I don't think there is any merit to this Texas cowboy approach to Google, but this tells me Google has become really big now. Looks like Microsoft might be playing some behind the scenes roles. That is unfortunate. Microsoft is losing big in mobile, and its Windows is going archaic, and you can do with Office you can do online for free these days. The idea that Bing is lagging because Google is anti competitive is whispers.

The next thing you know some of these people will want Google to make public its search algorithms. If you think SEO scheming is bad enough today, imagine what after that. Coke has its secret sauce, as does Pepsi, as does KFC. So does Google have its secret sauce.

Microsoft is not losing to Google in search. Microsoft never really was in the ring in the first place. Microsoft has an Economics major CEO. What can it expect?
Google Public Policy Blog: Texas Inquires On Our Approach To Competition: our success is earned the right way -- by building great products, not locking in our users or advertisers...... recent filings have revealed that the company’s own servers overheated, explaining their reduced traffic.

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