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Saturday, February 14, 2026

14: Russia

Exclusive: US military preparing for potentially weeks-long Iran operations
Western countries see World War III coming Voters in leading allied states broadly support higher defense spending, but balk when faced with policy trade-offs......... Across all five countries polled — the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France and Germany — the vast majority of respondents think the world is becoming more dangerous. The outbreak of World War 3 is seen as more likely than not within the next five years by American, Canadian, French and British respondents. ......... While there is widespread support for increasing defense budgets in principle across the U.K., France, Germany and Canada, that support fell sharply when people learned it might mean taking on more government debt, cutting other services or raising taxes. ......... With no sign of an imminent end to Russia’s four-year all-out war against Ukraine, and the U.S. taking military action in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa under President Donald Trump, many voters see a growing risk of global conflict. ............ The pattern is particularly stark in the United Kingdom, where 43 percent believe a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” to break out by 2031 — up from 30 percent in March 2025. Nearly half of Americans — 46 percent — think a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031 — up from 38 percent last year. ........ Trump’s “president of peace” image is not convincing voters at home. ................ At least one in three people in the U.S., U.K., France and Canada believe a nuclear weapon is likely or very likely to be used in a war in the next five years. ............... Russia is seen as the biggest threat to peace in Europe, while Canadians see Trump’s America as the greatest danger to security. In France, Germany and the U.K., the second-biggest threat is seen to be the U.S., which respondents cited far more often than China.

Russia Attacks a NATO Country in a War Game. It Doesn’t End Well. In a simulation where Russia breaches the Lithuanian border, Europe struggles to respond without U.S. help. ............... “We want to fracture NATO’s unity,” the Russian president says. ......... “Ultimately, this isn’t about the Baltic states,” his military chief adds, “but about establishing a security architecture in Europe that aligns more closely with our interests than the one that exists today.” .......... Shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin laid out three demands: no further NATO expansion; no U.S. strike weapons near Russia’s borders; and a rollback of NATO forces and infrastructure to their 1997 positions. In such a European order, Russia would decide the fate of smaller states. .................. He is describing an advance straight through the heart of Lithuania. From the Belarusian border to the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, it is only about 30 kilometers. The roads there are well developed. Military vehicles would be able to move quickly. “The major drawback,” the senior officer says, “is the significant risk of escalation from a military perspective.” ............... Avoiding the activation of Article 5, Team Russia agrees, is paramount. ............ A NATO response requires the unanimous approval of all member states, and from a European perspective, it’s the U.S. which has become an uncertain ally in recent years. The foreign minister urges the chancellor to speak with their American allies immediately............ The Kremlin, too, decides to reach out to the Americans. “We have to aim to decouple America and Europe in this critical hour,” the foreign minister says. The military chief adds: “Bilaterally, I would emphasize above all that we see the United States as a mediator, and not as an instrumental part of NATO.” Moscow wants a deal with Washington. Ideally, they would work things out at a major summit bringing the two presidents together. “The agenda would, of course, include a new peace architecture in Europe,” the Russian president says, “as well as the bilateral economic relationship.” ............... For years, Washington has prodded Europe to shoulder the burden of its own defense. Under Trump, that posture has sharpened. ............... The National Security Strategy of November 2025 states that the era of the United States acting as the sole guarantor of the global order is over. The document then ranks America’s strategic priorities. First comes the Western Hemisphere. Second is Asia, which primarily refers to China and the Indo-Pacific. Europe comes in a distant third. ................ And it refuses even to discuss Article 5. In effect, NATO is paralyzed. ............... The defense minister argues it’s time to declare the Spannungsfall — a constitutional emergency in which an armed attack on Germany is considered likely. It triggers a package of laws and measures designed to prepare the country for war. .................. For decades, Germany could assume the United States would cover the final rung of any escalation. Now Berlin is weighing decisions that, at worst, could trigger a shooting war — without American backup. .................. Europe, however, cannot implement NATO’s defense plans alone. The U.S. provides many of the essential capabilities: air and missile defense systems; real-time intelligence; targeting; and the ability to strike militarily significant targets — precision strikes against Russia. That is where Washington draws the line at this moment. The U.S. is willing to keep NATO’s command structure running and provide intelligence. But American troops would not move east, and U.S. aircraft would not hit Russian targets. ................ The simulation ended with many questions left unanswered. Does Russia fully hold the corridor? Does NATO eventually activate its defense plans? Can Europe act without the United States? Does the German brigade ultimately fight? Would a Russian advance succeed in reality? None of this is resolved. But that was never the point of the war game. The aim was to expose German decision-making patterns and their weaknesses — and to explore what they could mean for the alliance as a whole. ........... One thing, however, is clear: Deterrence does not fail at the moment of escalation. It fails long before.

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