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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

14: The Beatles



Paul McCartney Says A.I. Helped Complete ‘Last’ Beatles Song The song was made using a demo with John Lennon’s voice and will be released later this year, McCartney said. ......... “We were able to take John’s voice and get it pure through this A.I., so then we could mix the record, as you would normally do.” ......... Proponents of the technology say it has the power to disrupt the music business in the ways that synthesizers, sampling, and file-sharing services did. ......... Over McCartney’s career, he has been quick to engage with new creative technologies, whether talking about synthesizers or samplers .

Russian Forces Strike Back Against Ukraine’s Advancing Troops Russia attacked Ukrainian troops near villages in Ukraine’s south on the same day that Russian missiles killed at least 11 people and that President Vladimir V. Putin acknowledged some Russian losses. ......... President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, speaking to Russian war correspondents and military bloggers, acknowledged that his forces had suffered some losses in June, including 54 tanks. He denied Ukraine’s assertions of progress on the battlefield, though, insisting that its military had lost hundreds more tanks and vehicles than Russia with no gains to speak of. ......... “The opponent has had no success in any area,” he said. “They have had heavy losses.” ........... He said that he was aware of the hawkish calls for another major draft, but added that such a decision “depends on what we want” to do and that “there was no such need today.” ........... the Russian attack on Ukraine’s vanguard suggested Kyiv’s troops faced a dangerous problem ahead. As they emerge from their trenches, military analysts say, they move out of the range of their own army’s air defenses and electronic jamming systems, leaving them vulnerable to Russian air attacks like those on Tuesday. .......... Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of its forces, including those trained by Western allies, to any one place to drive a wedge through Russian-occupied land in the southeast. ........... Russia’s defensive strategy of aerial counterstrikes could slow Ukraine's campaign, giving Russian troops more time to lay down even more defenses. Ukrainian forces have already faced minefields, trenches, anti-tank ditches, air assaults and artillery fire .............. “Our night counterattacks began,” Mr. Rogov wrote, adding that the Russian military was flying sorties with two models of attack helicopters. Both armies were firing artillery in the area .......... The United States has already sent 109 Bradleys and 90 Strykers to Ukraine, according to the Defense Department, and has committed $40 billion overall in arms, ammunition and equipment since Russia’s invasion last year. Some European countries have also sent dozens of armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine in the past months........... Ukraine’s General Staff said on its Facebook page that air defenses had destroyed 10 of 14 cruise missiles and shot down one of four Iranian-made Shahed drones used in Russia’s overnight strike. The attack was part of Russian efforts to “exhaust” Ukraine’s air defenses .

He’s No Jack Kennedy there is a case to make in appreciation of candidates who hail from families that take public service seriously and who are familiar with the weird world of politics. Exhibit A is Nancy Pelosi, the most formidable and effective House speaker in more than 60 years, who learned much about her craft growing up in a local Democratic dynasty in Baltimore.

Lock Him Up It is stunning to read the grand jury’s 37-count indictment, with its depictions of a former president treating the law with the contemptuous disdain of a Mafia don — but with none of a don’s concern for covering his tracks. It is even more stunning to hear what some of those in the legal community who have been defenders of Trump have to say about it. ....... As for the suggestion that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt, Barr noted that the Justice Department had “acted in a very patient way” in trying to obtain documents from Trump, only to be met with “very egregious obstruction.” ........ None of this will sway Trump’s base because nothing will sway them. .......... But what about more mainstream conservatives who know the 2020 election wasn’t stolen, that Jan. 6 was a disgrace for the ages, that Trump is a one-time-lucky serial loser whose bottomless narcissism keeps costing Republicans winnable Senate and gubernatorial races, that his entire presidency was a drunken joyride with a reckless driver careening around hairpin turns at high speed, that his renomination as the G.O.P. candidate would give President Biden his best shot at re-election and that another Trump presidency would be an orgy of petty political retribution and reckless policymaking that would make his first term seem, by comparison, responsible and tame? ................ They are, with few exceptions, supine. ......... It remains true that the federal prosecution of Trump, along with his potential conviction and incarceration, will be a fateful moment in American history. Far more fateful would have been the failure to prosecute. If Trump can be above the law, in a case of this kind, then we will have lost the rule of law.

C.I.A. Told Ukraine Last Summer It Should Not Attack Nord Stream Pipelines Dutch intelligence officials shared information with the C.I.A. in June 2022 that they had learned the Ukrainian military had been planning an operation using divers to blow up one of the pipelines.......... Explosions destroyed parts of the pipelines, which carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, in September. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly denied responsibility for the attack. .......... American intelligence agencies now believe the operation was carried out at least with the loose direction of the Ukrainian government, but they do not know who exactly planned the operation. .......... Some officials have worried that Ukrainian involvement would weaken support for the war among Germans, who have swallowed high energy prices during the conflict. While it is still possible that further revelations could shift public opinion in Germany, for now Berlin has continued to increase its military aid to Kyiv and had provided many of the tanks being used in the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive.

I Studied Five Countries’ Health Care Systems. We Need to Get More Creative With Ours. Despite just experiencing a pandemic in which over one million Americans died, health care reform doesn’t seem to be a top political issue in the United States right now. That’s a mistake. The American health care system is broken. We are one of the few developed countries that does not have universal coverage. We spend an extraordinary amount on health care, far more than anyone else. And our broad outcomes are middling at best.......... When we do pay attention to this issue, our debates are profoundly unproductive. Discussions of reform here in the United States seem to focus on two options: Either we maintain the status quo of what we consider a “private” system, or we move toward a single-payer system like Canada’s. That’s always been an odd choice to me because true single-payer systems like that one are relatively rare in the world, and Canada performs almost as poorly as we do in many international rankings. ..........

no one has a system quite as complicated as ours.

............. They think that our system is somehow part of America’s DNA, something that grew from the Constitution or the founding fathers. Others believe that the health care systems in different countries couldn’t work here because of our system’s size. .......... Our employer-based insurance system is the way it is because of World War II wage freezes and I.R.S. tax policy, not the will of the founders. And much of health care is regulated at the state level, so our size isn’t really an outlier. We could change things if we wanted to............ Australia and New Zealand are two other countries with single-payer systems out there, although their systems differ greatly from that of Canada and from each other’s. Unlike our neighbor to the north, they allow private insurance for most care, which can be applied to pay for faster access with more bells and whistles. In addition, Australia’s system has fairly high out-of-pocket payments, in the form of deductibles and co-pays. .............. France’s system is close to a single-payer one because almost everyone gets insurance from one of a few collective funds, mostly determined by employment or life situations. They also have out-of-pocket payments and expect most people to pay upfront for outpatient care, to be reimbursed later by insurance. ......... Britain, on the other hand, has no out-of-pocket payments for almost all care. Private insurance is optional, as it is in other countries, to pay for care that may come faster and with more amenities. Relatively few people purchase it, though. ........... Singapore has a completely different model. It relies on individuals’ personal spending more than almost any other developed country in the world, with insurance only really available for catastrophic coverage, or for access to a private system that, again, relatively few use. .............

It’s outrageous that the health care system hasn’t been a significant issue in the 2024 presidential race so far.

........... Even if we did have that national conversation, I fear we’d be arguing about the wrong things. We have spent the last several decades fighting about health insurance coverage. It’s what animated the discussions of reform in the 1990s. It’s what led to the Affordable Care Act more than a decade ago. It’s what we are still arguing about. The only thing we seem able to focus on concerns insurance — who provides it, and who gets it. ............. Insurance is really just about moving money around. It’s the least important part of the health care system. .......... Universal coverage matters. What doesn’t is how you provide that coverage, whether it’s a fully socialized National Health Service, modified single-payer schemes, regulated nonprofit insurance or private health savings accounts. All of the countries I visited have some sort of mechanism that provides everyone coverage in an easily explained and uniform way. That allows them to focus on other, more important aspects of health care. ................. We have all types of coverage schemes, from veteran’s affairs to Medicare, the Obamacare exchanges and employer-based health insurance, and when put together they don’t work well. They’re all too complicated, too inefficient and fail to achieve the goal of universal coverage. Our complexity, and the administrative inefficiency that comes with it, is holding us back. ........... More recently, I favored the tightly regulated, entirely private insurance system of Switzerland because it performs exceptionally well using a private scheme I thought would be more palatable to many Americans. ............ If we could agree on a simpler scheme — any one of them — we could start to focus on what matters: the delivery of health services. ............ In the United States, on the other hand, most care is provided by private hospitals, either for-profit or nonprofit. Even nonprofit systems compete for revenue, and they do so by providing more amenity-laden care. This competition for more patient volume leads to higher prices, and while we don’t explicitly ration care, we do so indirectly by requiring deductibles and co-pays, forcing many to avoid care because of cost. Our focus on what pays — acute care — also leads us to ignore primary care and prevention to a larger extent. ............. allowing people to choose whether to accept cheaper care delivered by a public system or to pay more for care in a private system might make this much more palatable. By doing so, we could make sure that good care is available to all, even if better care is available to some. ............. More than 80 percent of Singaporeans live in public housing, which involves more than one million flats that were built and subsidized by the government. Almost all Singaporeans own their own homes, too, even publicly subsidized ones; only about 10 percent of them rent. ............ Because of government subsidies, most people spend less than 25 percent of their income on housing and can choose between buying new flats at highly subsidized prices or flats available for resale on an open market. ......... the government is only spending about 5 percent of G.D.P. on health care. This leaves a fair amount available for other social policies, such as housing. .......... As part of New Zealand’s reforms, its Public Health Agency, which was established less than a year ago, specifically puts a “greater emphasis on equity and the wider determinants of health such as income, education and housing.” It also specifically seeks to address racism in health care, especially that which affects the Maori population.............. Addressing these issues in the United States would require significant investment, to the tune of hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars a year. That seems impossible until you remember that we spent more than $4.4 trillion on health care in 2022. We just don’t think of social policies like housing, food and education as health care. .................. Our narrow view too often defines health care as what you get when you’re sick, not what you might need to remain well. .............. When other countries choose to spend less on their health care systems (and it is a choice), they take the money they save and invest it in programs that benefit their citizens by improving social determinants of health. In the United States, conversely, we argue that the much less resourced programs we already have need to be cut further. The recent debt limit compromise reduces discretionary spending and makes it harder for people to access government programs like food stamps. As Mr. Elshaug noted, doing the opposite would lead to better outcomes. ............... We currently spend about 18 percent of G.D.P. on health care. That’s almost $12,000 per American. It’s about twice what other countries currently spend...........

We cannot seem to do what other countries think is easy, while we’ve happily decided to do what other countries think is impossible.





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Tuesday, June 13, 2023

13: Arizona



Fear and Mayhem as Russia’s War Comes Home Attacks from Ukraine have killed at least a dozen Russian civilians and displaced thousands. But they have not fundamentally changed the calculus for Vladimir Putin. .

Arizona, Low on Water, Weighs Taking It From the Sea. In Mexico. A $5 billion plan to desalinate seawater in Mexico and pipe it to Phoenix is testing the notion that desert cities can keep growing as the Earth warms. ........... As the state’s two major sources of water, groundwater and the Colorado River, dwindle from drought, climate change and overuse, officials are considering a hydrological Hail Mary: the construction of a plant in Mexico to suck salt out of seawater, then pipe that water hundreds of miles, much of it uphill, to Phoenix. ......... a $5 billion project proposed by an Israeli company is under serious consideration, an indication of how worries about water shortages are rattling policymakers in Arizona and across the American West. ........... On June 1, the state announced that the Phoenix area, the fastest-growing region in the country, doesn’t have enough groundwater to support all the future housing that has already been approved. .............. Desalination plants are already common in coastal states like California, Texas and Florida, and in more than 100 other countries.

Israel gets more than 60 percent of its drinking water from the Mediterranean.

............. The water would have to travel some 200 miles, climbing more than 2,000 feet along the way, to reach Phoenix. ............ “The minute you have to move water around, you have huge fixed costs.” ............ It would flood the northern Gulf of California with waste brine, threatening one of Mexico’s most productive fisheries. .......... And the water it provided would cost roughly ten times more than water from the Colorado River. ........... In a sense, Arizona has been here before. The state owes its boom to superhuman-scale water projects, culminating in the 336-mile, $4 billion aqueduct that diverts Colorado River water to Phoenix and Tucson. IDE Technologies, the Israeli company behind the new desalination proposal, has seized on that legacy, calling its project “an infinite and unlimited reverse Colorado.” ................. Puerto Peñasco, a city of 60,000 an hour south of the border. From the ocean, the city is a ribbon of luxury villas and high-rise condos, fronted by soft beaches unfurling into turquoise water. Tourists from Phoenix, who make up the bulk of visitors, call it by its Anglicized name, Rocky Point; its unofficial moniker is Arizona’s beach. .......... Desalination works by vacuuming up huge volumes of ocean water, then pushing it at high pressure through a series of membranes to filter out salt. Every 100 gallons of seawater produces about 50 gallons of potable water and another 50 gallons of brine that has a salt content that is roughly twice as high as seawater. ................... IDE would release that brine into the sea. On the open ocean, waste brine can be quickly dispersed. ............ More than half of the fishing in Mexico is harvested from the Gulf of California. ........... IDE, one of the world’s largest desalination companies .......... The company asked Arizona to sign a 100-year contract to buy water from the desalination project. In return, IDE says it would find private financing to cover the estimated $5 billion initial cost of building the desalination plant and pipeline. The company has been working with Goldman Sachs to arrange that financing. ................. Between Puerto Peñasco and Phoenix sits one of the most ecologically fragile places in Arizona: Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, a riot of velvet mesquite, teddy-bear cholla and red-flower-tipped ocotillo, teeming with roadrunners and rattlesnakes and giant-eared jackrabbits, spilling across 500 square miles at the state’s southern edge like an overstuffed psychedelic fever dream............... a biosphere reserve — a distinction bestowed almost nowhere else in the Southwest United States. The pipeline would cut through the middle of it. ........... Desalination plants require a tremendous amount of energy. To power the plant, IDE would build one of America’s largest solar farms near Phoenix, plus a transmission line to move that power to Mexico. That line would need a 150-foot-wide right of way corridor ........... The water pipeline would require a 175-foot corridor. ................. the land has spiritual significance for the Tohono O’odham Nation, whose people lived there for thousands of years before being displaced to a reservation east of the park. ........... Arizona is Buckeye writ large. Since the megadrought began in 2000, Arizona’s population has jumped almost 50 percent and shows no signs of stopping.
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TSS #037: 5 Rules for a Permissionless Life .



A STAR REPORTER’S BREAK WITH REALITY Lara Logan was once a respected 60 Minutes correspondent. Now she trades in conspiracy theories that even far-right media disavow. What happened? ......... “So what does fifth-generation warfare really mean?” It means that “you’re meant to believe the narrative, regardless of the truth.” ........... Turning to The New York Times to understand this moment, Logan warns, is “like being in the battle of Normandy, on the beaches of Normandy, Dunkirk, and going on your knees every day and crawling over to the Nazi lines and asking them to please write nice things about your side in German propaganda.” Her dress is decorated with two identical navy-blue stickers reading stop woke indoctrination. ........... when she talks about subjects like the “little puppet” Volodymyr Zelensky, or how COVID vaccines are a form of “genocide by government,” or how President Joe Biden’s administration has been “participating in the trafficking of kids” .......... Logan, who is 52, is still, after all, a war correspondent. That is how she sees it. The fighting may not be in Afghanistan or Iraq, and she may not be winning Emmys for her coverage anymore, but in her mind this is her most crucial assignment yet, uncovering this “war against humanity.” And she must be getting close to the real story, because the American media have tried to silence her from all sides. ............... In October, during an appearance on that network, Logan declared that “the open border is Satan’s way of taking control of the world” and that the global elite “want us eating insects” while they “dine on the blood of children.” Newsmax condemned her remarks and announced that it had no plans to invite Logan on its shows again. ........... Logan’s life has been rife with personal trauma, some of it well known. In 2011, she was gang-raped in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. In 2012, she was diagnosed with breast cancer. In 2013, a story she reported for 60 Minutes was publicly disavowed. ........... How a career built on pursuing the truth had become so unmoored from it. ............ When I had contacted Logan about an interview, her response, via text message, was: “Unfortunately I have no doubt this is another hit piece desperately seeking to discredit several decades of award-winning work at 60 Minutes, CBS, ABC, NBC and beyond and you are only seeking my voice to add legitimacy to the anonymous cowards you will use to attack me once again. Feel free to use this statement if you are sincere.” She then shared a screenshot of our exchange with her 530,000 Twitter followers. ............... Logan had begun her career as a full-time journalist 16 years earlier, fresh out of college and with a résumé consisting of two part-time newspaper gigs in her hometown of Durban, South Africa, along with a bit of swimsuit modeling. ........... She was en route to Kabul shortly after the first American air strikes that October. ........... Responding in a short dispatch for The Guardian, Logan parried adroitly. “If General Babajan smiles around me, perhaps it is because I offer him respect and attempt, at least, to talk to him in a non-demanding manner,” she wrote. “It’s not rocket science.” ............ More fundamental to Logan’s success in Afghanistan, however, was the simple fact that she showed up when others didn’t. ............ “The good ones,” he said, “always want the worst assignments.” By spring 2002, Logan had a $1 million contract with the network. ............. “She was also very good under fire. Even in a very bad firefight or something, after an IED exploded, she would get in front of the camera, and she’d be able to deliver.” ............. “When I looked at Mum, I saw a woman who thought she was secure and safe in her marriage suddenly alone.” .......... That was how Logan explained it when the Mirror reporter asked why she was so willing to pitch herself into danger as a journalist. “I’m afraid of being seen as vulnerable,” she said. “All my life, I’ve been fighting to prove that I’m not weak.” ............. She refused orders from CBS to keep out of Iraq during the American invasion in 2003, hiring local fixers to sneak her across the Jordanian border. On the drive into Baghdad, she played Van Morrison. With virtually every other American television broadcaster evacuated from the city, “shock and awe” was hers. One of Logan’s early segments for the relatively short-lived Wednesday edition of 60 Minutes showed a Humvee she was in flip over when it hit a land mine; in a Sunday segment, viewers saw Logan defy a vehicle commander’s orders to stay put as he went to inspect an unexploded bomb. In 2005, the Times christened her the “War Zone ‘It Girl’ ”; in 2006, CBS elevated her to chief foreign correspondent. ................ “It’s hard to judge what Lara Logan is going to be in 10 years,” Fager told Broadcasting & Cable magazine in the fall of 2008. “But boy, she’s made a mark in a short period of time.” ............. On the evening of February 11, 2011, at the height of the Arab Spring, Logan threaded through the congested streets of Cairo. She, her cameraman, her security guard, and her producer had come straight from the airport, as she later recounted on 60 Minutes, having landed just moments after President Hosni Mubarak announced his resignation. “It was like unleashing a champagne cork on Egypt,” she recalled. .............. Logan’s agent, Carole Cooper, had advised against the trip; only a week earlier, Logan and her crew had been detained overnight by Egyptian officials targeting journalists. But now, in Tahrir Square, thousands of people were singing, chanting, unfurling flags. For more than an hour she reported from the crowd, people smiling and waving at the camera. Then the camera’s battery went dead. The light illuminating Logan and the people around her was suddenly gone. A few moments later, Logan felt hands on her body. She thought that if she screamed loud enough, the assault would stop, but it didn’t. ................. The mob tore off her clothes. For a few minutes she managed to hold on to her security guard’s arm, but then, like everyone else in her crew, he was beaten back. This was when Logan thought she was going to die. Later she would recall for Newsweek how the men raped her with their hands, with sticks, with flagpoles. Onlookers took photos with their cellphones. The assault lasted at least 25 minutes before a group of Egyptian women intervened. They were able to cover Logan until soldiers managed to reach her and get her to her hotel, where she was seen by a doctor. .............. Logan’s eventual decision to talk openly about what happened inspired other women in journalism to share their own stories of being sexually assaulted while on the job. After she spoke out, the Committee to Protect Journalists launched a major effort to survey the problem and stigma of sexual violence in the field. .............. For years afterward, however, as she told the Toronto Star, Logan would continue to cope with internal injuries—severe pelvic pain, a hysterectomy that failed to heal. And there was the emotional damage. Logan talked about problems of intimacy with her husband, the dark memories that could sweep over her with a single touch. .............. A little over a year after the assault, Logan, at 41, was diagnosed with Stage 2 breast cancer; she underwent a lumpectomy and six weeks of radiation, then went into remission. It was during this period of her life, Logan would say, that she “wanted to come apart.” She felt herself in a situation where “nobody could see it and nobody could see me and nobody understood.” She began suffering panic attacks. She tried therapy. ............... Some of Logan’s reporting broke significant ground. No journalist had yet substantiated, for example, the role of Abu Sufian bin Qumu, an Ansar al‑Sharia leader and former Guantánamo Bay detainee, in the Benghazi attack; the Obama administration did not publicly announce his involvement until the next year. But the segment’s revelations were framed almost as sideshows to the Rambo-esque account of Davies, whose view of the attack comprised the majority of the report’s 15 and a half minutes. ........... And when, after the Times report, they tried to reach Davies to demand answers, they couldn’t find him—The Daily Beast later reported that he had emailed his publisher saying that because of a threat against his family, he was going dark. .............. For most of her professional life, Logan had not struck her peers as especially political—“very moderate,” one former colleague called her. She now began to shape a new worldview, one steeped in antagonism toward the media establishment she felt betrayed by, and toward the figures and institutions she believed it served. It was a worldview that offered both absolution and purpose. And it was soon to find a partisan expression in Donald Trump. ........... She likened right-wing outlets such as Breitbart News and Fox to the “tiny little spot” where women are permitted to pray at Jerusalem’s Western Wall, while “CBS, ABC, NBC, Huffington Post, Politico, whatever”—the “liberal” media—took up the rest of the space, reserved for men. .................. “I was like, ‘You know, you’re talking about me … You’re talking about all these people who’ve worked with you—we’re part of some vast left-wing conspiracy? Like, seriously, you believe that?’ And she was like, ‘No, you don’t understand … You may not know you’re complicit—but you’re complicit.’ ” ............... As the months passed, Logan’s comments became more extreme. Eventually some of her closest friends from her former life could no longer stomach a phone call with her, knowing it might turn into a stem-winder on the virtues of Michael Flynn, who had admitted to lying to the FBI about his contact with the Russian ambassado ................. After the January 6 insurrection, she rallied behind the people who were charged with taking part in it. ............. an appearance on Fox News—in November 2021, as the country battled COVID—during which Logan compared Anthony Fauci, then the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to the Nazi doctor Josef Mengele. Fox stayed silent about the remarks but ultimately did not pursue a new season of Logan’s streaming show. .............. But by that point, Logan had come to seem firmly of the mind that setbacks, criticism, or a reproach of any sort were only evidence that she was doing something right. Carole Cooper, her agent—who, according to people familiar with their long relationship, had been like a second mother to Logan—dropped her. ................ Logan was undeterred. The stakes, as she had come to see them, were simply too high. This is what she tries to communicate to people at the various local speaking gigs that now constitute much of her career, events such as the Park Cities Republican Women Christmas fundraising lunch in Texas, which she keynoted last year. “We had to cut her off because she was going too long,” one member who helped arrange the lunch recalled. The message was: “The world is on fire” and “your kids are being exposed to cats being raped” and “elections are stolen” and “we’ve lost our country.” The woman added, “It’s a Christmas lunch, mind you.” ........... In the past several years, I have written about a number of public figures on the right who believe very few of the things they profess to believe, who talk in public about stolen elections and wink at the specter of global cabals, and then privately crack jokes about the people who applaud. ................. In recent years, many Americans have embraced conspiracy theories as a way to give order and meaning to the world’s chance cruelties. Lara Logan seems to have done the same, rewriting her story as a martyrdom epic in the war of narratives. .................. She lingered until the very last person left the auditorium. .......... I think she stayed for as long as she did that night because she believes she has seen the light and wanted the people in the auditorium to see it too. I think she also stayed because the people there represent some of the only community she has left. .



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How Can ChatGPT Help Create Effective Landing Pages That Convert Visitors Into Leads Or Customers?

Sunday, June 11, 2023

11: Marc Andreessen



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Why AI Will Save the World

AI will not destroy the world, and in fact may save it.

......... A shorter description of what AI isn’t: Killer software and robots that will spring to life and decide to murder the human race or otherwise ruin everything, like you see in the movies. .......... A shorter description of what AI isn’t: Killer software and robots that will spring to life and decide to murder the human race or otherwise ruin everything, like you see in the movies. ........ we have used our intelligence to raise our standard of living on the order of 10,000X over the last 4,000 years........ What AI offers us is the opportunity to profoundly augment human intelligence to make all of these outcomes of intelligence – and many others, from the creation of new medicines to ways to solve climate change to technologies to reach the stars – much, much better from here. ............. In our new era of AI: ...... Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful. The AI tutor will be by each child’s side every step of their development, helping them maximize their potential with the machine version of infinite love. .......... Every person will have an AI assistant/coach/mentor/trainer/advisor/therapist that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, and infinitely helpful. The AI assistant will be present through all of life’s opportunities and challenges, maximizing every person’s outcomes. ......... Every scientist will have an AI assistant/collaborator/partner that will greatly expand their scope of scientific research and achievement. Every artist, every engineer, every businessperson, every doctor, every caregiver will have the same in their worlds. .......... Every leader of people – CEO, government official, nonprofit president, athletic coach, teacher – will have the same. The magnification effects of better decisions by leaders across the people they lead are enormous, so this intelligence augmentation may be the most important of all. ........ Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically, driving economic growth, creation of new industries, creation of new jobs, and wage growth, and resulting in a new era of heightened material prosperity across the planet. ........... Scientific breakthroughs and new technologies and medicines will dramatically expand, as AI helps us further decode the laws of nature and harvest them for our benefit. ............ The creative arts will enter a golden age, as AI-augmented artists, musicians, writers, and filmmakers gain the ability to realize their visions far faster and at greater scale than ever before. ......... I even think AI is going to improve warfare, when it has to happen, by reducing wartime death rates dramatically. Every war is characterized by terrible decisions made under intense pressure and with sharply limited information by very limited human leaders. Now, military commanders and political leaders will have AI advisors that will help them make much better strategic and tactical decisions, minimizing risk, error, and unnecessary bloodshed. .......... In short, anything that people do with their natural intelligence today can be done much better with AI, and we will be able to take on new challenges that have been impossible to tackle without AI, from curing all diseases to achieving interstellar travel. .......... Perhaps the most underestimated quality of AI is how humanizing it can be. AI art gives people who otherwise lack technical skills the freedom to create and share their artistic ideas. Talking to an empathetic AI friend really does improve their ability to handle adversity. And

AI medical chatbots are already more empathetic than their human counterparts.

Rather than making the world harsher and more mechanistic, infinitely patient and sympathetic AI will make the world warmer and nicer. ........... AI is quite possibly the most important – and best – thing our civilization has ever created, certainly on par with electricity and microchips, and probably beyond those. ......... It turns out this present panic is not even the first for AI. ......... a moral panic is by its very nature irrational – it takes what may be a legitimate concern and inflates it into a level of hysteria that ironically makes it harder to confront actually serious concerns. ......... For AI risk, these are CEOs who stand to make more money if regulatory barriers are erected that form a cartel of government-blessed AI vendors protected from new startup and open source competition – the software version of “too big to fail” banks. .............. If you are paid a salary or receive grants to foster AI panic…you are probably a Bootlegger. .......... The problem with the Bootleggers is that they win. The Baptists are naive ideologues, the Bootleggers are cynical operators, and so the result of reform movements like these is often that the Bootleggers get what they want – regulatory capture, insulation from competition, the formation of a cartel – and the Baptists are left wondering where their drive for social improvement went so wrong. ............... We just lived through a stunning example of this – banking reform after the 2008 global financial crisis. The Baptists told us that we needed new laws and regulations to break up the “too big to fail” banks to prevent such a crisis from ever happening again. So Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which was marketed as satisfying the Baptists’ goal, but in reality was coopted by the Bootleggers – the big banks. The result is that the same banks that were “too big to fail” in 2008 are much, much larger now. ................. And of course, no AI panic newspaper story is complete without a still image of a gleaming red-eyed killer robot from James Cameron’s Terminator films. ............. My view is that the idea that AI will decide to literally kill humanity is a profound category error. AI is not a living being that has been primed by billions of years of evolution to participate in the battle for the survival of the fittest, as animals are, and as we are. It is math – code – computers, built by people, owned by people, used by people, controlled by people. The idea that it will at some point develop a mind of its own and decide that it has motivations that lead it to try to kill us is a superstitious handwave. .............. AI doesn’t want, it doesn’t have goals, it doesn’t want to kill you, because it’s not alive. And AI is a machine – is not going to come alive any more than your toaster will. ............

Short version: If the murder robots don’t get us, the hate speech and misinformation will.

................ the same concerns of “hate speech” (and its mathematical counterpart, “algorithmic bias”) and “misinformation” are being directly transferred from the social media context to the new frontier of “AI alignment”. ................ there is no absolutist free speech position. First, every country, including the United States, makes at least some content illegal. ........... there are certain kinds of content, like child pornography and incitements to real world violence, that are nearly universally agreed to be off limits – legal or not – by virtually every society. So any technological platform that facilitates or generates content – speech – is going to have some restrictions. ............... As the proponents of both “trust and safety” and “AI alignment” are clustered into the very narrow slice of the global population that characterizes the American coastal elites – which includes many of the people who work in and write about the tech industry – many of my readers will find yourselves primed to argue that dramatic restrictions on AI output are required to avoid destroying society. I will not attempt to talk you out of this now, I will simply state that this is the nature of the demand, and that most people in the world neither agree with your ideology nor want to see you win. ............... In short, don’t let the thought police suppress AI. ............. The fear of job loss due variously to mechanization, automation, computerization, or AI has been a recurring panic for hundreds of years, since the original onset of machinery such as the mechanical loom. Even though every new major technology has led to more jobs at higher wages throughout history, each wave of this panic is accompanied by claims that “this time is different” – this is the time it will finally happen, this is the technology that will finally deliver the hammer blow to human labor. And yet, it never happens. ..................

by late 2019 – right before the onset of COVID – the world had more jobs at higher wages than ever in history.

................ AI, if allowed to develop and proliferate throughout the economy, may cause the most dramatic and sustained economic boom of all time, with correspondingly record job and wage growth – the exact opposite of the fear. ................. technology introduced into an industry generally not only increases the number of jobs in the industry but also raises wages. ......... This is not to say that inequality is not an issue in our society. It is, it’s just not being driven by technology, it’s being driven by the reverse, by the sectors of the economy that are the most resistant to new technology, that have the most government intervention to prevent the adoption of new technology like AI – specifically housing, education, and health care. The actual risk of AI and inequality is not that AI will cause more inequality but rather that we will not allow AI to be used to reduce inequality. .......... Tools, starting with fire and rocks, can be used to do good things – cook food and build houses – and bad things – burn people and bludgeon people. Any technology can be used for good or bad. ............ AI will make it easier for criminals, terrorists, and hostile governments to do bad things, no question. .......... AI is not some esoteric physical material that is hard to come by, like plutonium. It’s the opposite, it’s the easiest material in the world to come by – math and code. ............. AI is like air – it will be everywhere. The level of totalitarian oppression that would be required to arrest that would be so draconian – a world government monitoring and controlling all computers? jackbooted thugs in black helicopters seizing rogue GPUs? – that we would not have a society left to protect. ......... We don’t even need new laws – I’m not aware of a single actual bad use for AI that’s been proposed that’s not already illegal. ............. using AI as a defensive tool. The same capabilities that make AI dangerous in the hands of bad guys with bad goals make it powerful in the hands of good guys with good goals – specifically the good guys whose job it is to prevent bad things from happening. ............. if you are worried about AI generating fake people and fake videos, the answer is to build new systems where people can verify themselves and real content via cryptographic signatures. Digital creation and alteration of both real and fake content was already here before AI; the answer is not to ban word processors and Photoshop – or AI – but to use technology to build a system that actually solves the problem. ........... let’s mount major efforts to use AI for good, legitimate, defensive purposes. Let’s put AI to work in cyberdefense, in biological defense, in hunting terrorists, and in everything else that we do to keep ourselves, our communities, and our nation safe. ............ using AI to protect against bad people doing bad things, I think there’s no question a world infused with AI will be much safer than the world we live in today............ AI isn’t just being developed in the relatively free societies of the West, it is also being developed by the Communist Party of the People’s Republic of China. .............. China has a vastly different vision for AI than we do – they view it as a mechanism for authoritarian population control, full stop. They are not even being secretive about this, they are very clear about it, and they are already pursuing their agenda. And they do not intend to limit their AI strategy to China – they intend to proliferate it all across the world, everywhere they are powering 5G networks, everywhere they are loaning Belt And Road money, everywhere they are providing friendly consumer apps like Tiktok that serve as front ends to their centralized command and control AI. .............

The single greatest risk of AI is that China wins global AI dominance and we – the United States and the West – do not.

............... we in the United States and the West should lean into AI as hard as we possibly can. ......... more general problems such as malnutrition, disease, and climate. AI can be an incredibly powerful tool for solving problems, and we should embrace it as such. .......... To prevent the risk of China achieving global AI dominance, we should use the full power of our private sector, our scientific establishment, and our governments in concert to drive American and Western AI to absolute global dominance, including ultimately inside China itself. We win, they lose.


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