The impending Age Of Abundance was prophesied in the scriptures thousands of years ago.
Thursday, February 12, 2026
Sunday, January 25, 2026
A Supreme Court Test of Presidential Power: The Fate of Trump’s Emergency Tariffs
A Supreme Court Test of Presidential Power: The Fate of Trump’s Emergency Tariffs
In early November 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc., a case that could significantly reshape the balance of power between Congress and the presidency in matters of trade and economic emergency. At stake is the legality of sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—a statute originally designed to address extraordinary national emergencies, not to serve as a standing trade weapon.
The Tariffs at Issue
Beginning in February 2025, the Trump administration imposed broad tariffs on imports from China, later extending them to Canada, Mexico, and several other trading partners. Unlike traditional tariffs enacted through congressional authorization or trade statutes such as Section 301 or Section 232, these measures were justified under IEEPA, a law that grants the president authority to regulate economic transactions during a declared national emergency.
The administration argued that persistent trade deficits and foreign economic practices constituted such an emergency. Critics, however, countered that this interpretation stretched IEEPA beyond recognition—turning a law meant for rare crises into a blank check for unilateral trade policy.
Lower Courts Push Back
Both the U.S. Court of International Trade and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled against the administration, finding that the tariffs exceeded the president’s statutory authority. The courts emphasized that IEEPA does not explicitly authorize the imposition of tariffs and warned that allowing such a reading would effectively sideline Congress’s constitutional power over taxation and trade.
These rulings set the stage for Supreme Court review, transforming what began as a trade dispute into a constitutional confrontation over executive power.
Where the Supreme Court Stands
As of January 25, 2026, the Supreme Court has not yet issued a decision. The Court declined to release an opinion on January 20, and the next scheduled opinion release date is February 20, though additional dates could be added. If not resolved in February, the case could extend into late spring or even June, the traditional end of the Court’s term.
Despite the uncertainty around timing, legal analysts largely agree on direction. Based on oral arguments, lower-court precedents, and expert commentary, the Court appears more likely than not to strike down the tariffs—either entirely or in significant part.
What the Markets Are Saying
Prediction markets offer a quantitative glimpse into expectations. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket currently assign only a 26–29% probability that the tariffs will be upheld. In other words, markets are pricing in a roughly 70–75% chance that the Court will rule against the administration.
While not definitive, these markets aggregate the views of traders responding to legal analysis, judicial signals, and historical patterns—often serving as an early barometer of consensus.
Potential Consequences
If the tariffs are invalidated, the immediate effect could be substantial duty refunds for importers who paid billions of dollars under the disputed measures. However, such refunds would not be instantaneous; administrative processes could take months to unwind the tariffs and return funds.
More importantly, a ruling against the administration would draw a clear boundary around IEEPA, reinforcing that emergency powers are not a substitute for congressional authorization. It would signal that economic “emergencies” cannot be indefinitely invoked to bypass the legislative branch.
A Broader Constitutional Moment
Beyond trade and tariffs, Trump v. V.O.S. Selections represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing struggle over executive authority in the modern presidency. In an era where emergencies—real or perceived—are increasingly used to justify unilateral action, the Court’s decision will help determine whether IEEPA remains a scalpel for true crises or becomes a sledgehammer for routine policymaking.
However the Court rules, the case is likely to echo far beyond customs forms and supply chains. It speaks to a deeper question at the heart of American governance: where emergency ends, and constitutional order begins.
राष्ट्रपति शक्ति की परीक्षा: ट्रंप के आपातकालीन टैरिफ़ का भविष्य
नवंबर 2025 के पहले सप्ताह में, अमेरिकी सुप्रीम कोर्ट ने Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. मामले में मौखिक दलीलें सुनीं—यह एक ऐसा मुकदमा है जो व्यापार और आर्थिक आपात स्थितियों में कांग्रेस और राष्ट्रपति के बीच शक्ति-संतुलन को नए सिरे से परिभाषित कर सकता है। इस मामले का केंद्रबिंदु है इंटरनेशनल इमरजेंसी इकोनॉमिक पावर्स एक्ट (IEEPA) के तहत राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप द्वारा लगाए गए व्यापक टैरिफ़ की वैधता—एक ऐसा क़ानून जिसे मूल रूप से असाधारण राष्ट्रीय आपात स्थितियों के लिए बनाया गया था, न कि स्थायी व्यापार नीति के औज़ार के रूप में।
विवादित टैरिफ़
फरवरी 2025 से शुरू होकर, ट्रंप प्रशासन ने चीन से आयात पर व्यापक टैरिफ़ लगाए, जिन्हें बाद में कनाडा, मैक्सिको और अन्य व्यापारिक साझेदारों तक विस्तारित किया गया। पारंपरिक टैरिफ़, जो आमतौर पर कांग्रेस की स्वीकृति या सेक्शन 301 और सेक्शन 232 जैसे व्यापार क़ानूनों के तहत लगाए जाते हैं, उनसे अलग ये टैरिफ़ सीधे IEEPA के अंतर्गत लागू किए गए।
प्रशासन का तर्क था कि लगातार बने हुए व्यापार घाटे और विदेशी आर्थिक व्यवहार एक राष्ट्रीय आपात स्थिति के समान हैं। आलोचकों ने इसे IEEPA की भावना और उद्देश्य का गंभीर दुरुपयोग बताया—एक ऐसा प्रयास जो संकट-प्रबंधन के लिए बने क़ानून को राष्ट्रपति की एकतरफ़ा व्यापार नीति के हथियार में बदल देता है।
निचली अदालतों की असहमति
अमेरिकी कोर्ट ऑफ इंटरनेशनल ट्रेड और फेडरल सर्किट की अपीलीय अदालत—दोनों ने प्रशासन के विरुद्ध फ़ैसला सुनाया। अदालतों ने स्पष्ट किया कि IEEPA टैरिफ़ लगाने की स्पष्ट अनुमति नहीं देता और ऐसी व्याख्या स्वीकार करने से कर और व्यापार पर कांग्रेस की संवैधानिक शक्ति व्यावहारिक रूप से निष्प्रभावी हो जाएगी।
इन निर्णयों ने सुप्रीम कोर्ट की समीक्षा का मार्ग प्रशस्त किया और एक व्यापार विवाद को संवैधानिक टकराव में बदल दिया।
सुप्रीम कोर्ट की स्थिति
25 जनवरी 2026 तक, सुप्रीम कोर्ट ने कोई अंतिम निर्णय जारी नहीं किया है। 20 जनवरी को कोर्ट ने इस मामले से संबंधित कोई राय जारी नहीं की, और अगली निर्धारित राय-जारी तिथि 20 फरवरी है—हालाँकि आवश्यकता पड़ने पर अतिरिक्त तिथियाँ जोड़ी जा सकती हैं। यदि फरवरी में निर्णय नहीं आता, तो मामला जून तक खिंच सकता है, जो कोर्ट के कार्यकाल का पारंपरिक अंत होता है।
समय को लेकर अनिश्चितता बनी हुई है, लेकिन कानूनी विशेषज्ञों की राय अपेक्षाकृत स्पष्ट है। मौखिक बहसों, निचली अदालतों के निर्णयों और विशेषज्ञ विश्लेषण के आधार पर, यह अधिक संभावना है कि कोर्ट टैरिफ़ को पूरी तरह या आंशिक रूप से रद्द कर देगा।
बाज़ार क्या संकेत दे रहे हैं
पूर्वानुमान बाज़ार इस मुद्दे पर एक संख्यात्मक झलक देते हैं। Kalshi और Polymarket जैसे प्लेटफ़ॉर्म वर्तमान में टैरिफ़ के बरकरार रहने की संभावना केवल 26–29% आँकते हैं। इसका अर्थ है कि बाज़ार लगभग 70–75% संभावना मान रहा है कि सुप्रीम कोर्ट इन टैरिफ़ को अवैध ठहराएगा।
हालाँकि ये बाज़ार निर्णायक नहीं होते, लेकिन वे कानूनी विश्लेषण, न्यायिक संकेतों और ऐतिहासिक प्रवृत्तियों पर आधारित सामूहिक अपेक्षाओं को प्रतिबिंबित करते हैं—और अक्सर उभरती सहमति का प्रारंभिक संकेत देते हैं।
संभावित प्रभाव
यदि टैरिफ़ रद्द किए जाते हैं, तो आयातकों को अरबों डॉलर की शुल्क-वापसी का अधिकार मिल सकता है। हालाँकि यह प्रक्रिया तत्काल नहीं होगी; प्रशासनिक जटिलताओं के कारण रिफ़ंड में कई महीने लग सकते हैं।
इससे भी अधिक महत्वपूर्ण यह होगा कि ऐसा निर्णय IEEPA की सीमाओं को स्पष्ट करेगा और यह संदेश देगा कि आपातकालीन शक्तियाँ कांग्रेस की स्वीकृति का स्थायी विकल्प नहीं हो सकतीं। यह स्पष्ट करेगा कि आर्थिक “आपात स्थितियाँ” विधायी प्रक्रिया को दरकिनार करने का साधन नहीं बन सकतीं।
एक व्यापक संवैधानिक क्षण
व्यापार और टैरिफ़ से परे, Trump v. V.O.S. Selections आधुनिक राष्ट्रपति पद में कार्यकारी शक्ति के विस्तार पर चल रही बहस का एक निर्णायक मोड़ है। ऐसे समय में जब वास्तविक या कथित आपात स्थितियों का उपयोग एकतरफ़ा निर्णयों को सही ठहराने के लिए बढ़ता जा रहा है, सुप्रीम कोर्ट का फ़ैसला यह तय करेगा कि IEEPA एक सर्जिकल औज़ार बना रहेगा या सामान्य नीति-निर्माण का हथौड़ा बन जाएगा।
कोर्ट चाहे जो भी निर्णय दे, यह मामला केवल सीमा शुल्क और आपूर्ति शृंखलाओं तक सीमित नहीं रहेगा। यह अमेरिकी शासन व्यवस्था के मूल प्रश्न को छूता है—जहाँ आपातकाल समाप्त होता है, और संवैधानिक व्यवस्था की शुरुआत होती है।
Tuesday, January 20, 2026
20: Trump
Hello Drew. https://t.co/kQuFvcpS6V
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 20, 2026
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Universal high income https://t.co/gsk0GEy4ll
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 20, 2026
Today, I'm announcing a software tool + service for small business owners.
— Marshall Haas 🏎 (@marshal) January 20, 2026
I built and sold my last company for $52,000,000. From idea to exit, it took almost exactly 4 years. We scaled to 150+ people, and in that entire time, I only worked on the business 782 hours in total. I…
Becoming an AI-First Organization https://t.co/oW8GUB4vdm
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 21, 2026
By 9 am every day, you've probably already surfed the internet for knowledge, moved money, and spoken to someone across the planet.
— Peter H. Diamandis, MD (@PeterDiamandis) January 20, 2026
150 years ago, you'd be called a god; now you call it Tuesday.
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Shopify founder @tobi on why he reads so many books:
— Alex & Books 📚 (@AlexAndBooks_) January 20, 2026
“If you don’t read books, you live a lifetime. If you read books, you live 1,000 lifetimes.”
This clip from @davidsenra's podcast is worth watching:pic.twitter.com/Hb2GOISeYT
In 2014, I had the option to choose between IIT Delhi and IIT Bombay. Same branch. I chose IIT Delhi, because Delhi has better UPSC coaching.
— Aman Rai (@amankrai28) January 20, 2026
The plan was to not worry about academics, finish first semester, then go full UPSC mode. I actually tried it too, spent a month reading…
Huge. An entire country is coming onchain, using USDC and @base.
— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) January 19, 2026
Excited to support Bermuda’s transition toward an onchain economy that empowers the people, local businesses, and institutions 💪
Open financial systems will drive economic freedom. https://t.co/lDqFUIb9qe
Congress is voting on a bipartisan bill to triple ICE funding. I’m leading the opposition. pic.twitter.com/otU6Z5QHYl
— Rep. Ro Khanna (@RepRoKhanna) January 20, 2026
Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei:
— Haider. (@slow_developer) January 20, 2026
"we might be 6-12 months away from models doing all of what software engineers do end-to-end"
We're approaching a feedback loop where AI builds better AI
But the loop isn't fully closed yet, chip manufacturing and training time still limit speed pic.twitter.com/CZMlbxqS66
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Six Weeks From Zero (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 1) (novel)
The Dawn Beyond Currency (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 1) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (Part 2) (novel)
The Great Subcontinent Uprising (novel)
The Banyan Revolt (novel)
Gen Z Kranti (novel)
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
Madhya York: The Merchant and the Mystic (novel)
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Poetry Thursdays (novel)
Sunday, January 18, 2026
18: Tariff
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
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Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
I don't seem to have access to your DM. This novel can also be a movie script. To be sold. Can I pre-sell it?
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
What Bollywood movie have you worked in?
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Sent email to contact@mob76outlook.com
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Book: Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026 https://t.co/EbPvYFBOLi
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Book: The Technologies Behind Agentic AI https://t.co/O6CkqjDXOQ
The email bounced back.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
Overcoming pioneer skepticism.
— Robert Scoble (@Scobleizer) January 18, 2026
The other night had a dinner with autonomous vehicle pioneer @AdrianKaehler1 who wrote the computer vision system for the Stanford team that became @waymo.
He told me at dinner that he didn’t believe @elonmusk could finish Robotaxi.
I answered… https://t.co/b20x5ePxh0
His skepticism is warranted. This is a hard AI problem, but, as your drive with him showed, this is largely also a solved problem.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 18, 2026
What remains is the long tail march of 9’s. Getting to 99.9999% reliability and beyond.
Understand the vast number of nuances of reality. https://t.co/xOpaiIlMs0
I appreciate @chetan_bhagat for opening up a necessary conversation around wheelchair usage at airports, even if the reality is more layered than it appears.
— Vivek Ranjan Agnihotri (@vivekagnihotri) January 18, 2026
I’m not sure it’s fair to call this “abuse” without context.
In my travels, I’ve consistently noticed that flights… https://t.co/nUjC4pXzIz
Not an engineer. A salesperson.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
Awesome time at Disney on Ice at Rocket Arena in Cleveland tonight. Great city, great future! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/z8U6a1OGQo
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) January 18, 2026
I applied. https://t.co/bLKYWFbWB8
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 18, 2026
Gemini is poised to dominate consumer AI.
— Tom Blomfield (@t_blom) January 18, 2026
It’s already in my email, calendar, drive, maps and browser.
And it Google has finally shed the crippling anxiety that stopped it releasing anything remotely interesting.
I’m starting to develop bad FOMO if my agents aren’t running 24x7.
— Ryan Carson (@ryancarson) January 18, 2026
It feels like the opportunity cost is extreme.
It’s like you have a team of 100 engineers just sitting there because you haven’t given them work to do.
Not a great feeling actually.
And I’m feeling this even…
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just Global Economy
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism
18: Tariff
China’s Trade Surplus, Part III How should policy respond? ........ China’s immense trade surplus. In a saner world — a world in which the United States weren’t ruled by a madman — this surplus and its disruptive effects would be the biggest issue confronting the global economy. ........... China has an enormous economy and is relying on its export prowess to make up for its domestic failures. And the political economy that has set China on this path isn’t likely to change any time soon. ........... there is a theoretical case for simply buying the cheap stuff China supplies. But in practice China’s massive surplus creates serious problems for the rest of the world, and therefore requires a serious policy response. ............... “The rest of the world” for this discussion mostly means the United States and Europe, who are the key global economic players outside China. While other nations also have choices to make, only the US and the EU are big enough to influence China’s behavior. ........... I realize that offering serious policy advice to the current U.S. government is like preaching to baboons: You won’t get heard over the hooting, and even if they did hear, they wouldn’t understand. .............. how big that surplus is relative to the world economy. .......... China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods — exports of manufactures minus imports — is a larger share of world GDP than any country has ever captured in the past: ........... I don’t want to engage in crude mercantilism and portray China’s trade surplus as an unmitigated bad for the rest of the world. China isn’t “stealing” from other countries by selling more than it buys. If anything, China is subsidizing the rest of us by selling us goods cheaply. Also, because the balance of payments always balances, the counterpart of China selling more goods than it buys is China purchasing more overseas assets than it sells. In practice China buys an enormous quantity of U.S. Treasury bills and other safe assets that pay low interest rates — and helps keep those rates low. .............. China is like a store that offers merchandise at highly discounted prices and also offers buy-now-pay-later plans with low financing charges. In effect, China is subsidizing the rest of us.
.................. China’s surging exports are economically and socially disruptive. The “China shock” caused by the rapid growth of Chinese exports between the late 1990s and around 2010 eliminated well over a million jobs in the United States, with job losses concentrated in a relatively limited number of communities. ................ In terms of overall US employment, these job losses were offset by job gains in industries not in the path of the Chinese export surge, such as in healthcare. But most of the workers and communities displaced by the China Shock were not able to take advantage of these new opportunities. So while overall U.S. employment and economic growth do not appear to have suffered from Chinese competition, significant numbers of workers and their communities did. .................. The second reason that China’s enormous trade surplus is harmful to its trading partners rests on an old argument against completely free trade — the importance of retaining domestic capacity in industries crucial to national security. This concern has much more force now than it did, say, 30 years ago. As Abraham Newman and Henry Farrell have argued, we are living in an age of “weaponized interdependence,” in which governments that have control over economic “chokepoints” — crucial nodes in the world production system — can and do use that control to throttle, or threaten to throttle, geopolitical rivals. .................... After winning the Cold War, the United States controlled most of these chokepoints. And until Trump II, the U.S. exercised restraint, mostly respecting international agreements and the rule of law. As a result, the targets of weaponized interdependence tended to be rogue states like Iran. ............. Today, under Trump II, America is looking more and more like a rogue state itself. .............. massive Chinese trade surpluses threaten to give the Chinese government control of multiple chokepoints. And China is an authoritarian state that can’t be expected to refrain from weaponizing the rest of the world’s dependence on its exports. .................. China recently used its dominance of rare earth production and especially rare earth processing to put the screws on the United States, Japan and the EU amid trade disputes. In a recent dispute between the Dutch government and China over unauthorized technology transfer, China threatened to disrupt the entire EU automotive industry by withholding critical supplies of semiconductor chips. So it’s entirely reasonable to harbor concerns over allowing China to acquire leverage over chokepoints in the global economy. ...................... there is the risk that China will lock in a long-term advantage in the industries of the future. ............... U.S. leadership over Europe in information technology. ........... that dominance overwhelmingly arises from high-tech clusters in the Bay Area and Seattle, where an early lead has created a self-reinforcing “ecology” of skilled workers and specialized suppliers that makes it very hard for Europe to break in. ............... China already appears headed for a similar lock on a number of industries, such as solar panels and electric cars, and other industries will follow if massive trade surpluses continue. .............. For example, can we be sure that China won’t embed monitoring capabilities in its information technology – a risk that has been associated with Huawei? ................ There’s a widespread perception that economists have nothing to say about globalization other than “Yay free trade!” In reality, while economists do often act as cheerleaders for free trade, they have also devoted considerable attention to the conditions under which policy should deviate from pure free trade. Equally important, when those conditions are met, economics has a lot to say about how policy should deviate from free trade.
......................... The case for free trade is the same as the general case for letting markets work. If importing a good is cheaper than producing it domestically, then limiting imports and/or subsidizing domestic production is usually a misallocation of resources. That is, those resources could have been used more productively making goods for the domestic market or for export, instead of competing with lower-priced imports. Consequently, government policy shouldn’t try to overrule the market by supporting domestic production against imports unless an industry satisfies a key condition: that maintaining domestic production generates sufficient benefits that aren’t taken into account by markets. If that condition is met, the government should engage in an industrial policy to support that industry. ....................... the European digital industry was never able to successfully compete with Silicon Valley because it started too late and the EU never engaged in policies to shelter it from American competition. ................. The bottom line is that free trade isn’t an inviolable principle. There are good reasons to intervene to in order to protect some industries from the effects of foreign, and especially Chinese, competition. ............ If the goal is to aid an industry, tariffs are almost always the wrong policy tool. Subsidies are almost always a better choice. ............. subsidies — possibly targeted subsidies that, say, promote employment — are almost always a better policy than tariffs. For while tariff protection may help a domestic industry facing import competition, it also raises prices for consumers. Furthermore, if the targeted imports are “intermediate goods” — inputs into the production process, like steel – tariffs will raise the cost of production for the final good. Hence Trump’s tariffs on steel imports have raised the cost of domestic production of autos. .............. Approximately half of U.S. imports are intermediate goods, some of which — like steel and many products made from copper — now face high tariffs. The way these tariffs have raised production costs is one of the reasons manufacturing employment, which Trump’s tariffs were supposed to boost, has steadily declined since last spring. ............. Subsidies, which don’t raise prices, avoid this kind of collateral damage. If you say that subsidies to preserve an industry would cost too much, you’re really saying that the industry isn’t worth saving. Why? Because a tariff actually costs morethan a subsidy that achieves the same results, once you take the adverse effects on consumers and downstream industries into account. ................. A necessary condition for supporting an industry is that it be an example of at least one of the three basic reasons I gave that China’s burgeoning surplus is a problem. That is, it must be an industry in which a rapid decline would be strongly disruptive to workers; or an industry where retaining a strong domestic presence is crucial for national security; or an industry that may be key to the economic future.
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
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Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
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Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
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The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
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The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
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Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
Friday, January 16, 2026
16: Tariff
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
AI And Robotics Break Capitalism
Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
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This is an epic piece of writing by @om https://t.co/i6EZNONftH
— Hiten Shah (@hnshah) January 16, 2026
Our Algorithmic Grey-Beige World “Most people are other people. Their thoughts are someone else’s opinions, their lives a mimicry, their passions a quotation.” — Oscar Wilde, Novelist .............. Individuality and the ability to stand outside has always come at a price. That is why people don’t want to stand out. They conform. ............ Psychologist Rollo May, observing 1950s America: “The opposite of courage in our society is not cowardice, it is conformity.” May diagnosed this when McCarthyism was literally hunting down anyone who thought differently. ........... What used to require shame and ostracism is now baked into the internet’s economic infrastructure. The algorithmic reality of technology platforms has codified conformity into the human condition. And it is very profitable—the real late-stage capitalism. Things are going to get worse with the new AI, that leans into the “mid” as a default, built entirely on the notion of conformity. ................ Today, open YouTube and every single thumbnail looks the same. Shocked faces, specific color contrasts, carefully positioned text overlays. Same voice. Same cadence and energy level. And videos have roughly the same lengths. The algorithm rewards these patterns with distribution and punishes deviation with obscurity. .............. Creators choose grey-beige conformity because it works, and the algorithm rewards sameness. My carefully curated list of creators has devolved into sameness. Whether pen reviewers, photographers, music bloggers, history tellers, or science bloggers—it is clear they are praying at the feet of the gods of algorithms.
.................. Spotify has done the same with subtle algorithmic music. Don’t tell me you don’t hear that “Spotify sound” in music production. Songs engineered to be short, to provide an instant dopamine hit. The first 30 seconds have to hook listeners before they skip. After that, who cares? After all, Spotify pays the same for 30 seconds or three minutes. Everything is now made to belong on a Spotify playlist. ............. Spotify, let’s face it, is still in kindergarten compared to Instagram and TikTok. Those two have scaled, metastasized, and gamified conformity to a whole new level.
......... The grey-beige aesthetic is what gets distribution. Color, weirdness, genuine imagination get algorithmically ignored. Match whatever narrow aesthetic the platform currently amplifies, or else move on to the backwaters. Those who think they’re being creative because they’re “creating content” are just living at the whims and fancies of the algorithm, painting by numbers in templates already defined. ......... The sad part is that Instagram and TikTok’s ability to unleash conformity at global scale impacts the offline world as well. ........... AirSpace is a phenomenon where Airbnbs, coffee shops, and co-working spaces across the world look identical. Reclaimed wood, industrial lighting, minimalist furniture, the same Edison bulbs hanging over the same avocado toast. Every coffee shop became Sightglass circa 2008. The goal isn’t uniqueness. It’s matching what performs well in photos and gets bookings. ............. Silicon Valley amplified this blandness. It is the people. It is rare to find people who are interesting, unique, and have strong enough opinions to have convictions, especially public ones. This lack of imagination is reflected in the dress code of the Valley. .............. Right through the mid-nineties, non-conformists dominated the technology industry. The first uniform for the valley was: no uniform. It was a place where misfits fit together. .............. As the technology industry became the cultural zeitgeist, it became necessary to advertise to the world that you were part of the tech set. And the easiest way to do so was through a uniform. .................. What May called courage banishes you to a world of lower distribution, fewer views, less income.
This explains why my podcast has not taken off https://t.co/sd7jeCnlx2
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 17, 2026
The Technologies Behind Agentic AI
Agentic AI: Set To Explode In 2026
The Convergence Age: Ten Forces Reshaping Humanity’s Future
Liquid Computing: The Future of Human-Tech Symbiosis
Velocity Money: Crypto, Karma, and the End of Traditional Economics
The Next Decade of Biotech: Convergence, Innovation, and Transformation
Beyond Motion: How Robots Will Redefine The Art Of Movement
ChatGPT For Business: A Workbook
Becoming an AI-First Organization
Quantum Computing: Applications And Implications
Challenges In AI Safety
AI-Era Social Network: Reimagined for Truth, Trust & Transformation
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Musk’s Management
Corporate Culture/ Operating System: Greatness
CEO Functions