Monday, March 27, 2023

Ethan Mollick

Superhuman: What can AI do in 30 minutes? AI multiplies your efforts. I found out by how much... The multiplier on human effort is unprecedented ........ I gave myself 30 minutes, and tried to accomplish as much as I could during that time on a single business project. At the end of 30 minutes I would stop. The project: to market the launch a new educational game. AI would do all the work, I would just offer directions. ........ in 30 minutes it: did market research, created a positioning document, wrote an email campaign, created a website, created a logo and “hero shot” graphic, made a social media campaign for multiple platforms, and scripted and created a video. In 30 minutes......... First, I needed to teach AI about my product, or, rather, to ask it to teach itself about the product. ......... a game I authored with Wharton Interactive, designed to teach leadership and team skills on a fictional mission to Saturn ............. I started with Bing, a GPT-4 model that is connected to the internet, and drew on its research capabilities so that it could teach itself about my product and the market it was in .......... All you have to do to make that happen is to ask: Pretend you are marketing genius. We are going to launch the Saturn Parable. You should give me a document that oulines an email marketing campaign and a single webpage to promote the game. ......... 1,757 words. 7 (good!) pages. Two prompts. 2 minutes and 40 seconds. ......... I then used my second system of the day, GPT-4, to actually build the website. Bing can be unreliable at code, and has limited numbers of questions you can ask. So, I gave ChatGPT-4 the instructions above, and told it: You are an expert site designer. You are creating the launch announcement page for the Saturn Parable, outlined below. create the following webpage. Make it an HTML page that I can run on my computer. List any additional assets I will need to make it work and where to put them. (I did cheat a bit here, GPT-4 ran very slowly, and I got busy with other tasks, so, by the time I got the full HTML and css files, I was a few minutes over the time limit, but the results are still pretty interesting) ........ I turned to another AI, MidJourney, to create the images - ...... (This kind of iterated editing feels very powerful, and everyone should give it a try) ........ Can you write me the social media campaign I need to promote this using the Wharton accounts on social? ....... Finally, it looked like I needed to do a video. Fortunately, I had an easy way to make one. I asked Bing for a script, used ElevenLabs to create a realistic voice, and D-id to turn it into a video. You can see it here! ...... Bing generated 9,200 words or so of text and a couple images, GPT-4 generated a working HTML and CSS file, MidJourney created 12 images, ElevenLabs created a voicefile, and DiD created a movie. ........... Input: I made less than 20 inputs to all the systems to generate these results. .......... This would have been a lot of work for me to do. Many hours, maybe days of work. I would have needed a team to help: I have never done an email marketing campaign, don’t know CSS, and certainly could not have staged a photo like the one in the hero image. ....... When we all can do superhuman amounts of work, what happens? Do we do less work an have more leisure? Do we work more and do the jobs of ten people? Do employers benefit? Employees? I am not sure. Historically, these sorts of disruptions lead to short-term issues, and long-term employment growth. .......... I was able to do this using the tools available today, without any specific technical knowledge, and in plain English prompts: I just asked for what I wanted, and the AI provided it. That means almost everyone else can do it, too. We are already in a world of superhumans, we just have to wait for the implications. .

Secret Cyborgs: The Present Disruption in Three Papers The future is already here, we just need to figure out a few details....... It took only 10 years from when Edison first revealed the electric bulb and electrical system until New York City had switched almost completely from gas to electric lighting. ....... everything changed in November with the release of ChatGPT ......... was the fastest technology to reach 100 million users. ........ It required no addition technology, platform, or process to be effective. .......... .

What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? ........ What if they don’t need middle-men either? Instead, they could allow operation providers to connect directly with customers through the ChatGPT interface. .......... a conversational user interface, like those found on WhatsApp or Telegram, doesn’t require full browser capabilities. It’s a completely different interaction, and one that could revolutionize the way we access information. ........... And what if OpenAI took a 15% cut from each transaction that happens on ChatGPT (hi 👋🏼 Apple)? That’s a game-changer right there. Suddenly, large e-commerce shops, marketplaces, and aggregators become obsolete. Until now, those companies existed because they were more capable of digital operations than operation providers. But with the advent of conversational interfaces, the entire tech infrastructure of websites is changing. Those websites are losing ground quickly, and operational providers are stepping up to take their place......... with a universal interface like ChatGPT, Nike won’t need high-level digital capabilities anymore. They’ll just be a supplier with a simple ERP-API connection. This means many new possibilities for Nike. ......... what if OpenAI doesn’t even need your laptop, phone, or any other device in the future? Could they potentially become a device manufacturer and own the entire journey? Maybe they’ll create something like the NoPhone idea, or internet-connected cableless headphones, or even IronMan’s Jarvis. .......... This can be the next big thing after 90s web1.0, 2000s web2.0, 2010s mobile era - 2020s AI era. ........... people were expecting multiple LLM models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and other players. However, an ecosystem of plugins could create significant momentum for OpenAI, potentially making it difficult for other companies to compete. This is reminiscent of how the iOS AppStore was always superior to other app stores, which helped make the iPhone such a big success story. ....... As for the future of AI, it’s both exciting and scary. The possibilities are endless, but we need to be mindful of potential downsides and work to mitigate them as we continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But with the right mindset and approach, the future is looking brighter than ever......... The ideas and frameworks are mine, but article is partially written with support of GPT-4.

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