Showing posts with label Ethan Mollick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ethan Mollick. Show all posts

Sunday, July 23, 2023

23: Ethan Mollick

In A.I. Race, Microsoft and Google Choose Speed Over Caution Technology companies were once leery of what some artificial intelligence could do. Now the priority is winning control of the industry’s next big thing. ........... They wrote in several documents that the A.I. technology behind a planned chatbot could flood Facebook groups with disinformation, degrade critical thinking and erode the factual foundation of modern society. ............ Dr. El Mhamdi, a part-time employee and university professor, used mathematical theorems to warn that the biggest A.I. models are more vulnerable to cybersecurity attacks and present unusual privacy risks because they’ve probably had access to private data stored in various locations around the internet. .......... He resigned from Google this year, citing in part “research censorship.” He said modern A.I.’s risks “highly exceeded” the benefits. “It’s premature deployment,” he added. ......... concerns with chatbots: They could produce false information, hurt users who become emotionally attached to them and enable “tech-facilitated violence” through mass harassment online. .......... Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, made a bet on generative A.I. in 2019 when Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI. After deciding the technology was ready over the summer, Mr. Nadella pushed every Microsoft product team to adopt A.I. ........... Microsoft has released new products every week, a frantic pace to fulfill plans that Mr. Nadella set in motion in the summer when he previewed OpenAI’s newest model. He asked the chatbot to translate the Persian poet Rumi into Urdu, and then write it out in English characters. “It worked like a charm,” he said in a February interview. “Then I said, ‘God, this thing.’”

On holding back the strange AI tide There is no way to stop the disruption. We need to channel it instead ......... Most people didn’t ask for an AI that can do many tasks previously reserved for humans. But it arrived, almost completely unexpectedly, eight months ago with ChatGPT, and has been accelerating ever since............ the substantial benefits of AI are going to be greatly reduced by trying to pretend it is just like previous waves of technology. ........... Large Language Models are here, now. In their current form, they show tremendous ability to impact many areas of work and life. ........ the AIs we have today are going to bring a lot of change........ In conversations with educational institutions and companies, I have seen leaders try desperately to ensure that AI doesn’t change anything. .......... Many organizational leaders don’t yet understand AI, but those who do see an opportunity are eager to embrace it… as long as it doesn’t make anything too weird. .......... AI, as currently implemented, is not really built for centralization ......... GPT-4, the most advanced AI available, is free for everyone in 169 countries through Bing, or for a small charge from OpenAI ........... By trying to make AI like all other technologies, companies are ignoring how transformative it is. One person can do a tremendous amount of work (see how much marketing I could get done with a 30 minute time limit), but it is also different work: tedious tasks are outsourced, interesting tasks are multiplied. The nature of work with AI shifts in way that uncomfortable, risky, and potentially powerful. ............. Jussi Kemppainen of Dinosaurs Are Better, who is developing an entire adventure game, alone. To do that, he is using AI help for every aspect of game design, from character design to coding to dialog to graphics3. He is inventing his own workflows to make this happen, and is able to do that because he is not limited to corporate work systems. .......... There is no way for companies to harness this kind of power and creativity without, in some way, democratizing control over AI. Only innovation driven by workers can actually radically transform work, because only workers can experiment enough on their own tasks to learn how to use AI in transformative ways. And empowering workers is not going to be possible with a top-down solution alone. .......... Nobody really knows anything about the best ways to use AI, and they certainly don’t know the best ways to use it in your company. Only by diving in, responsibly, can you hope to figure out the best use cases..........

Almost every assignment, at every level, can be done, at least in part, by AI.

........ AI can do high-quality work. It can do math. It makes far fewer obvious mistakes. And it is capable of working with vast amounts of data. .......... I pasted in my entire last book into Claude 2 ....... Given this challenge, many teachers want to turn back the clock: blue book exams. Handwritten essays. Oral exams. .......... We are very close to the long-term dream of tutoring at scale, and many other advances promise to make the lives of teachers easier, while improving outcomes for students and parents. .......... we need to articulate a vision for what radically changed education could look like .......... we need to start with the presumption that we are facing genuine, and widespread, disruption across many fields ........... The scientists and engineers designing AI, as capable as they are, have no particular expertise on how AI can best be used, or even how and when it should be used. We get to make those decisions. But we have to recognize that the AI tide is rising, and that the time to decide what that means is now........... 8% Americans own crypto. 2% of Americans have bought an NFT. VR numbers are a bit sketchy, but maybe 20% of Americans have tried it. 19% of Americans in a survey had tried ChatGPT by April. .........

Rookie leaders are stressful: Poll

How to Use AI to Do Stuff: An Opinionated Guide Covering the state of play as of Summer, 2023 ......... Claude 2, likely the second most capable AI system available to the public. The week before, Open AI released Code Interpreter, the most sophisticated mode of AI yet available. .......... When we talk about AI right now, we are usually talking about Large Language Models, or LLMs. Most AI applications are powered by LLMs, of which there are just a few Foundation Models, created by a handful of organizations. Each company gives direct access to their models via a Chatbot: OpenAI makes GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, which power ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Bing (access it on an Edge browser). Google has a variety of models under the label of Bard. And Anthropic makes Claude and Claude 2. .......... Code Interpreter as is an extremely powerful version of ChatGPT that can run Python programs. If you have never paid for OpenAI, you have only used 3.5. .......... Microsoft’s Bing uses a mix of 4 and 3.5, and is usually the first model in the GPT-4 family to roll out new features. For example, it can both create and view images, and it can read documents in the web browser. It is connected to the internet. Bing is a bit weird to use, but powerful. ........... Claude is most notable for having a very large context window - essentially the memory of the LLM. Claude can hold almost an entire book, or many PDFs, in memory. ............ For right now, GPT-4 is still the most capable AI tool for writing, which you can access at Bing (select“creative mode”) for free or by purchasing a $20/month subscription to ChatGPT. Claude, however, is a close second, and has a limited free option available. ......... Microsoft Office will include a copilot powered by GPT and Google Docs will integrate suggestions from Bard. The implications of what these new innovations mean for writing are pretty profound. ......... Use it like an intern to write emails, create sales templates, give you next steps in a business plan, and a lot more. .........

It can generate entirely false content that is utterly convincing.

.............. Particularly dangerous is asking it for references, quotes, citations, and information for the internet ......... Midjourney, which is the best system in mid-2023. It has the lowest learning-curve of any system: just type in "thing-you-want-to-see --v 5.2" (the --v 5.2 at the end is important, it uses the latest model) and you get a great result. Midjourney requires Discord. Here is a guide to using Discord

Power and Weirdness: How to Use Bing AI Bing AI is a huge leap over ChatGPT, but you have to learn its quirks ......... Overall, Bing is immensely more powerful than ChatGPT, but also a lot weirder to use.

Setting time on fire and the temptation of The Button We used to consider writing an indication of time and effort spent on a task. That isn't true anymore. ...... there are a million implications to outsourcing our first drafts to AI. ......... We may not learn how to write as well. We may be flooded with low-quality content. .......... Take, for example, the letter of recommendation. Professors are asked to write letters for students all the time, and a good letter takes a long time to write. ........ you may actually be hurting people by not writing a letter of recommendation by AI, especially if you are not a particularly strong writer. ......... With everyone pushing The Button for most emails, documents, and even (soon!) spreadsheets and presentations, what documents mean is going to change fundamentally, and that is going to spill over to our work. ........... People who use AI enjoy work more, and feel that they are better able to use their talents and abilities. ........ We start to create documents mostly with AI that get sent to AI-powered inboxes where the recipients respond mostly with AI. Even worse, we still create the reports by hand, but realize that no human is actually reading them. This kind of meaningless task, what organizational theorists have called mere ceremony, has always been with us. ............. Stripping away meaningless work removes a huge burden from workers, while reducing inefficiencies and broken processes. This is an amazing opportunity, but only if we are forward-thinking about the future of a world where most work starts by pressing The Button.

Monday, March 27, 2023

Ethan Mollick

Superhuman: What can AI do in 30 minutes? AI multiplies your efforts. I found out by how much... The multiplier on human effort is unprecedented ........ I gave myself 30 minutes, and tried to accomplish as much as I could during that time on a single business project. At the end of 30 minutes I would stop. The project: to market the launch a new educational game. AI would do all the work, I would just offer directions. ........ in 30 minutes it: did market research, created a positioning document, wrote an email campaign, created a website, created a logo and “hero shot” graphic, made a social media campaign for multiple platforms, and scripted and created a video. In 30 minutes......... First, I needed to teach AI about my product, or, rather, to ask it to teach itself about the product. ......... a game I authored with Wharton Interactive, designed to teach leadership and team skills on a fictional mission to Saturn ............. I started with Bing, a GPT-4 model that is connected to the internet, and drew on its research capabilities so that it could teach itself about my product and the market it was in .......... All you have to do to make that happen is to ask: Pretend you are marketing genius. We are going to launch the Saturn Parable. You should give me a document that oulines an email marketing campaign and a single webpage to promote the game. ......... 1,757 words. 7 (good!) pages. Two prompts. 2 minutes and 40 seconds. ......... I then used my second system of the day, GPT-4, to actually build the website. Bing can be unreliable at code, and has limited numbers of questions you can ask. So, I gave ChatGPT-4 the instructions above, and told it: You are an expert site designer. You are creating the launch announcement page for the Saturn Parable, outlined below. create the following webpage. Make it an HTML page that I can run on my computer. List any additional assets I will need to make it work and where to put them. (I did cheat a bit here, GPT-4 ran very slowly, and I got busy with other tasks, so, by the time I got the full HTML and css files, I was a few minutes over the time limit, but the results are still pretty interesting) ........ I turned to another AI, MidJourney, to create the images - ...... (This kind of iterated editing feels very powerful, and everyone should give it a try) ........ Can you write me the social media campaign I need to promote this using the Wharton accounts on social? ....... Finally, it looked like I needed to do a video. Fortunately, I had an easy way to make one. I asked Bing for a script, used ElevenLabs to create a realistic voice, and D-id to turn it into a video. You can see it here! ...... Bing generated 9,200 words or so of text and a couple images, GPT-4 generated a working HTML and CSS file, MidJourney created 12 images, ElevenLabs created a voicefile, and DiD created a movie. ........... Input: I made less than 20 inputs to all the systems to generate these results. .......... This would have been a lot of work for me to do. Many hours, maybe days of work. I would have needed a team to help: I have never done an email marketing campaign, don’t know CSS, and certainly could not have staged a photo like the one in the hero image. ....... When we all can do superhuman amounts of work, what happens? Do we do less work an have more leisure? Do we work more and do the jobs of ten people? Do employers benefit? Employees? I am not sure. Historically, these sorts of disruptions lead to short-term issues, and long-term employment growth. .......... I was able to do this using the tools available today, without any specific technical knowledge, and in plain English prompts: I just asked for what I wanted, and the AI provided it. That means almost everyone else can do it, too. We are already in a world of superhumans, we just have to wait for the implications. .

Secret Cyborgs: The Present Disruption in Three Papers The future is already here, we just need to figure out a few details....... It took only 10 years from when Edison first revealed the electric bulb and electrical system until New York City had switched almost completely from gas to electric lighting. ....... everything changed in November with the release of ChatGPT ......... was the fastest technology to reach 100 million users. ........ It required no addition technology, platform, or process to be effective. .......... .

What if OpenAI doesn’t need Chrome or any other browser? ........ What if they don’t need middle-men either? Instead, they could allow operation providers to connect directly with customers through the ChatGPT interface. .......... a conversational user interface, like those found on WhatsApp or Telegram, doesn’t require full browser capabilities. It’s a completely different interaction, and one that could revolutionize the way we access information. ........... And what if OpenAI took a 15% cut from each transaction that happens on ChatGPT (hi 👋🏼 Apple)? That’s a game-changer right there. Suddenly, large e-commerce shops, marketplaces, and aggregators become obsolete. Until now, those companies existed because they were more capable of digital operations than operation providers. But with the advent of conversational interfaces, the entire tech infrastructure of websites is changing. Those websites are losing ground quickly, and operational providers are stepping up to take their place......... with a universal interface like ChatGPT, Nike won’t need high-level digital capabilities anymore. They’ll just be a supplier with a simple ERP-API connection. This means many new possibilities for Nike. ......... what if OpenAI doesn’t even need your laptop, phone, or any other device in the future? Could they potentially become a device manufacturer and own the entire journey? Maybe they’ll create something like the NoPhone idea, or internet-connected cableless headphones, or even IronMan’s Jarvis. .......... This can be the next big thing after 90s web1.0, 2000s web2.0, 2010s mobile era - 2020s AI era. ........... people were expecting multiple LLM models from OpenAI, Google, Meta, and other players. However, an ecosystem of plugins could create significant momentum for OpenAI, potentially making it difficult for other companies to compete. This is reminiscent of how the iOS AppStore was always superior to other app stores, which helped make the iPhone such a big success story. ....... As for the future of AI, it’s both exciting and scary. The possibilities are endless, but we need to be mindful of potential downsides and work to mitigate them as we continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But with the right mindset and approach, the future is looking brighter than ever......... The ideas and frameworks are mine, but article is partially written with support of GPT-4.