Saturday, February 19, 2011

Singularity: I Am Not Convinced

Raymond Kurzweil, an American academicand author.Image via Wikipedia
Time: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal: Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away...... computers are getting faster faster ...... Maybe we'll merge with them to become super-intelligent cyborgs, using computers to extend our intellectual abilities the same way that cars and planes extend our physical abilities. Maybe the artificial intelligences will help us treat the effects of old age and prolong our life spans indefinitely. Maybe we'll scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually. Maybe the computers will turn on humanity and annihilate us...... even though it sounds like science fiction, it isn't, no more than a weather forecast is science fiction ....... it will be the most important thing to happen to human beings since the invention of language...... He holds 39 patents and 19 honorary doctorates. In 1999 President Bill Clinton awarded him the National Medal of Technology...... The Singularity Is Near, which was a best seller when it came out in 2005 ..... Bill Gates has called him "the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence." ..... In real life, the transcendent man is an unimposing figure who could pass for Woody Allen's even nerdier younger brother. Kurzweil grew up in Queens, N.Y....... someone who gives 60 public lectures a year..... technological progress happens exponentially, not linearly. ....... Exponential curves start slowly, then rocket skyward toward infinity....... We will successfully reverse-engineer the human brain by the mid-2020s. By the end of that decade, computers will be capable of human-level intelligence. ...... 2045 .... the quantity of artificial intelligence created will be about a billion times the sum of all
Artificial Intelligence: A.I. (album)Image via Wikipediathe human intelligence that exists today....... Once you decide to take the Singularity seriously, you will find that you have become part of a small but intense and globally distributed hive of like-minded thinkers known as Singularitarians. ....... They think in terms of deep time, they believe in the power of technology to shape history, they have little interest in the conventional wisdom about anything, and they cannot believe you're walking around living your life and watching TV as if the artificial-intelligence revolution were not about to erupt and change absolutely everything........ When you enter their mind-space you pass through an extreme gradient in worldview, a hard ontological shear that separates Singularitarians from the common run of humanity. Expect turbulence....... Proponents of seasteading — the practice, so far mostly theoretical, of establishing politically autonomous floating communities in international waters ........ After artificial intelligence, the most talked-about topic at the 2010 summit was life extension. Biological boundaries that most people think of as permanent and inevitable Singularitarians see as merely intractable but solvable problems. Death is one of them. Old age is an illness like any other, and what do you do with illnesses? You cure them. ....... The mice didn't just get better; they got younger....... damage can be repaired periodically. This is why we have vintage cars. ...... Kurzweil has published two books on his own approach to life extension, which involves taking up to 200 pills and supplements a day. He says his diabetes is essentially cured, and although he's 62 years old from a chronological perspective, he estimates that his biological age is about 20 years younger....... Once hyper-intelligent artificial intelligences arise, armed with advanced nanotechnology, they'll really be able to wrestle with the vastly complex, systemic problems associated with aging in humans....... t many people who are alive today will wind up being functionally immortal....... People invested a lot of personal effort into certain philosophies dealing with the issue of life and death. I mean, that's the major reason we have religion." ........ strong AI or artificial general intelligence, doesn't exist yet. ..... there are things going on in our brains that can't be duplicated electronically no matter how many MIPS you throw at them. The neurochemical architecture that generates the ephemeral chaos we know as human consciousness may just be too complex and analog to replicate in digital silicon...... Multiple biochemical processes create chemical modifications of protein molecules, further diversified by association with distinct structures at defined locations of a cell. The resulting combinatorial explosion of states endows living systems with an almost infinite capacity to store information regarding past and present conditions and a unique capacity to prepare for future events." That makes the ones and zeros that computers trade in look pretty crude. ...... introducing a superior life-form into your own biosphere is a basic Darwinian error....... Markram has said that he hopes to have a complete virtual human brain up and running in 10 years ..... In Kurzweil's future, biotechnology and nanotechnology give us the power to manipulate our bodies and the world around us at will, at the molecular level. 
Cover of Cover via AmazonProgress hyperaccelerates, and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs. We ditch Darwin and take charge of our own evolution. The human genome becomes just so much code to be bug-tested and optimized and, if necessary, rewritten. Indefinite life extension becomes a reality; people die only if they choose to. Death loses its sting once and for all. Kurzweil hopes to bring his dead father back to life...... Within a matter of centuries, human intelligence will have re-engineered and saturated all the matter in the universe. ....... There are more than 2,000 robots fighting in Afghanistan alongside the human troops...... Nothing gets old as fast as the future...... Singularitarianism is grounded in the idea that change is real and that humanity is in charge of its own fate and that history might not be as simple as one damn thing after another.

I could run at two miles per hour. I could run at three miles per hour. If you extrapolate that then I should be able to run at 60 miles per hour. But I don't think that is happening.

I have not read enough on the topic, I have not read much at all. So these are my first impressions.

Besides my idea of singularity is end of poverty, a total spread of democracy, universal broadband, things like that.

Larry Wants To Become A Household Name

Larry Elllison on stage.Image via WikipediaLarry Ellison for a brief period became the richest person in the world, and he very much continues to be one of the richest. But he never became a household name like Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs, or Mark Zuckerberg, for that matter. If it is any solace to him, the two Google founders or Eric Schmidt did not become household names either.

The thing about Oracle is the largest database company in the world does background work. Windows is in your face. But the software that processes your credit card transactions stays out of sight.

When Vinod Khosla Took A Break From Tweeting


I sent out a tweet to Vinod Khosla. Chances are he never saw it. But for a guy who had been tweeting near daily to that point took two weeks off after that. That is not a good sign.

Aggressive Fundraising, Aggressive Recruiting


I sent out this tweet to an angel investor yesterday.

Alexa Is Paperless (5)


Alexa Is Paperless (1)
Alexa Is Paperless (2)
Alexa Is Paperless (3)
Alexa Is Paperless (4)

City Bakery After PaperlessPost
Dumbo And Union Square
Friday 2 PM On: PaperlessPost.com
Alexa's PaperlessPost
Alexa Hirschfeld: CNN 2010 Most Powerful Women Entrepreneurs
Social Media Week: The Best NY Tech MeetUp Ever

Friday, February 18, 2011

Alexa Is Paperless (4)


Alexa Is Paperless (1)
Alexa Is Paperless (2)
Alexa Is Paperless (3)

Alexa says she is a very internal person. As in, she does not attend many events. She stays focused on her customers and her team, and that right there is more than a full time commitment. The media and pundits are lagging indicators. They are usually three months behind. It is so much more productive to get on the phone with a customer who might feel compelled to pick up the phone.

Alexa Is Paperless (3)


Alexa Is Paperless (1)
Alexa Is Paperless (2)

Deploying the basic product meant people started sending cards out to people in their network. Everyone who received the cards were potential new users. Many of them did come along as users. And when these new users sent out cards, the circle only widened.

Alexa Is Paperless (2)


Alexa Is Paperless (1)

Alexa grew up in New York City. She attended Harvard. She was at CBS for two years after college. She did not find the medium - television - all that interesting. Everything had already been figured out. The idea for the company first came from her brother who is a cofounder. I don't know of another brother sister cofounding team to a tech startup.

She thinks the ability to appreciate what people bring to the table is key. She thinks it is important to know what she does not know. Every wanna be leader pays lip service to the team concept, but Alexa means it.

Alexa Is Paperless (1)

I managed to show up on time. I simply ran after I got out of the train. I was on time. I showed up at 2 PM. At first I went into the wrong building. I was supposed to show up at 151, but I walked into 115. The place did not have an elevator, and I am having thoughts of walking up nine flights of stairs. I will definitely be late, I thought. Then I realized I got the house number wrong. I got out quick. And I ran. I showed up. On time.



I took an immediate liking to Alexa's new office. This would be my idea of a great office space. There was this big, open space in the middle. There were work tables. People ended up facing each other, although at some distance. There were unused work spaces. Obviously Alexa had expansion plans.

Microfinance, Not Just Microcredit

Microfinance Information ExchangeImage via WikipediaOne of the major lessons the microfinance industry has learned over the decades is that the poor need more than microcredit. They need a broad swath of financial services.

As soon as they start a business, they want to be able to open up a savings account with you. They want to be able to make easy payments. They want to be able to receive money from relatives who might have gone to some distant city or country.

And you have to offer the whole package deal. Although I do think microcredit continues to be the crown jewel of microfinance. But people don't just wear jewelry. They also like to wear clothes, also undergarments perhaps.

Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Twitter, FourSquare, FoodSpotting: Sharks

Image representing Foodspotting as depicted in...Image via CrunchBaseI asked a question at the final event during Social Media Week I attended.

Microsoft tried to buy or bury Google. "My question is for the FourSquare guy. Google tried to buy or bury Facebook. Facebook tried to buy or bury FourSquare." Well, Facebook tried to buy or bury Twitter first. "But FourSquare instead has attempted integration with FoodSpotting. And that is right by the market, right by the consumer, right by FourSquare, and right by FoodSpotting. Where did that wisdom come from? What made you want to do the right thing?"

And yesterday news was that Google was attempting a much deeper integration of Twitter in its search results. Integration is key. Facebook should similarly attempt deep integration with web properties like FoodSpotting. And there are going to be many, many players in that space. FoodSpotting has occupied but one vertical.