"Large, Complex Systems Spanning Entire Industries"

Bill Gates Addressing Health Ministers at Meeting on Polio Organized by the Gates Foundation (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Bill Gates on the future of education, programming and just about everything else

..... he cautioned, the world of programming probably has to evolve if we’re going to accomplish some grander goals such as large, complex systems spanning entire industries. There are more programmers and they’re better than they were 10 or 20 years ago, but there is no objective metric by which someone could say the state of the art has significantly improved...... In 20 or 30 years, Gates predicted, maybe robots in remote areas without a lot of doctors will be able to perform C-sections. ..... systems as complex and multifaceted as ecosystems, oceans and forests. ..... interestingly, Gates said, rich individuals in China tend to be more generous with their money than those elsewhere because so much of that wealth is first-generation wealth. There aren’t ruling-class families who consider themselves dynasties, but rather people who recognize the ridiculousness of one person accumulating so much money so fast. .... nuclear and bioterrorism as the thing we most want to avoid — but not the world’ biggest problem. .... the “ongoing disaster” that is 7 million children a year dying. .... 20 million when he was a kid and 12 million when the Gates Foundation began, citing new vaccines as a major cause for the improvement. In several years, he predicted, the number of children dying each year should be down to 3 million. ..... political disfunction, unemployment and war are all important concerns. So is the fact that malnourishment and other environmental factors have reduced the average IQ in sub-Saharan Africa to 82. But, Gates said, “Childhood death gets pretty high up for me.”

Bill Gates is easily one of the most remarkable individuals of my lifetime. For me computers are exciting because of the Internet and this guy is primarily a PC era guy, but his software contributions are revolutionary enough. What really gets me is his foundation work. He has been breaking a lot of ground with the Gates Foundation.

As for tech, a true challenge is adding artificial intelligence to the planet's entire ecosystem, all of the atmosphere, so we have an exact idea as to the planet's environmental health at any point in time. The same could be applied to the domain of people, so political and social and economic mass movements are not as arbitrary and we collectively have a greater say in uplifting humanity.

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Kurzweil Has Found A Home

Singularity: I Am Not Convinced

Singularity is not a concept I have bought into. But anyone who proposes it is a bold thinker. And in attempts at singularity many great things will happen. I want those great things.

Google’s New Director Of Engineering, Ray Kurzweil, Is Building Your ‘Cybernetic Friend’

World-renowned artificial intelligence expert and Google’s new Director of Engineering, Ray Kurzweil, wants to build a search engine so sophisticated that it could act like a ‘cybernetic friend,’ who knows users better than they know themselves. “I envision in some years that the majority of search queries will be answered without you actually asking,” he said at an intimate gathering at Singularity University’s NASA campus. ..... Language, Kurzweil argues, is the window to creating a genuine artificial brain, that can understand the meaning of ideas and concepts. “If you write a blog post, you’re not just creating a bag of words, you’re creating some meaningful sentences.” For now, search engines have brute-force algorithms that pick out key words in popular pages and hope that the results, on average, will yield the best information. ...... “semantic” search parses the meaning and intentions behind words. Semantic search aims to solve the ‘hotdog’ problem, as explained by Google’s Chairman, Eric Schmidt, “Is it a ‘hot dog’ or a ‘hotdog.’ And, if you knew something about whether the person had dogs, or whether the person was a vegetarian, you’d have a very different potential answer to that question.” ..... Google has access to the “things you read, what you write, in your emails or blog posts, and so on, even your conversations, what you hear, what you say.” .... Google can combine the personalized recommendations of a friend (who often know us better than we know ourselves) with the sum of all human knowledge, creating a sort of super best friend. ....... Kurzweil was quick to dispel the myth he was given “unlimited” funds, but humbly suggests that Google is giving him “sufficient resources for a very important project.”

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Government Has Its Role

Sure. Absolutely. No doubt.

The Seeds That Federal Money Can Plant

eight computing technologies, including digital communications, databases, computer architectures and artificial intelligence, tracing government-financed research to commercialization. It calculated the portion of revenue at 30 well-known corporations that could be traced back to the seed research backed by government agencies. The total was nearly $500 billion a year...... “If you take any major information technology company today, from Google to Intel to Qualcomm to Apple to Microsoft and beyond, you can trace the core technologies to the rich synergy between federally funded universities and industry research and development” ..... the exceptional role that science and technology play in the economy. ..... America ranks 22nd among 30 nations in university funding and research and development funding as a share of the economy’s gross domestic product. ..... define innovation as not only the generation of new ideas but also as their adoption in new products, processes, services and organizational models. In their view, the goal of policy should be to invest in and nurture the development of the innovation pipeline, from basic science to commercialization. ..... “The grants are really helpful when you’re working on something that is scientifically complex,” Mr. von Ahn says, “when you’re in the early year, or two or more, when you have no idea if it will work.” ..... “Don’t eat your seed corn. It may seem like an easy thing to cut now. But years later, you will regret that you did not invest a tiny portion of your federal budget in research, in the future.”

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Blogger Khosla

Image via WikipediaVinod Khosla: TechCrunch: The “Unhyped” New Areas in Internet and Mobile

a whole new world of platforms, a post-PC era, which I’d more aptly describe as the always/everywhere era, finally, and that means a whole new set of opportunities ..... the cost of experimentation has gone down dramatically ..... raw computing power is taken for granted. ..... What else new has the potential (nothing is certain!) to be truly disruptive or establish a new category in the domain of consumer Internet/mobile/services (which to me are fast becoming interchangeable)? ...... AirBnB and Instagram would be examples of companies whose categories existed prior to their entry, but they are meaningfully different. ...... I call them the “unhyped dozen” (to go with my energy investing activities, which I call the “clean dozen”) ...... (1) Data Reduction or Filters (Siri) (2) Big data or Analytics ... There will be countless new types of data streams .... Much has been written about big data and it and may be getting past the unhyped label! (3) Emotion (Foodspotting, Ness, Instagram) (4) Education 2.0 (Khan Academy) ... “Education models that dramatically reduce the cost and increase the availability of quality learning.” The puzzling question is why education has not already changed. (5) TV 2.0 (6) Social Next (7) Interest-based networks (Twitter) (8) Health 2.0 (9) Internet of Things/Universal ID/NFC/Smart sensors.... The network of things is supposedly growing faster than any other network, social or otherwise. (10) Personal Collaborative Publishing (Pinterest, Tumblr) ... Self-publishing on Amazon is becoming real, removing the gateway of traditional editors and the tax of traditional business models. Where will this lead? Books, especially non-fiction, can become more interactive, crowdsourced (ck12.org), social and collaborative. (11) Utility Apps (Siri) (12) Marketplaces & Disintermediation (Etsy) .... Why does Tom Freidman need The New York Times to get readers ................. We as investors have seen Square take off at an unprecedented rate (so far) for a payments startup, but in terms of relative scale, even Square is dwarfed by Mpesa — it is 20% of Kenya’s GDP already (using a totally different model than Square). Meanwhile in India, their UID system could remake the concept of “cash”....... Tools and services that used to be inaccessible to all but large manufacturers are now available to everyone. Foreign factories that were impenetrable before are now an email away. Design software costing thousands of dollars per seat is freely available (or very cheap). Hackers are mixing all of these elements together and re-imagining entire industries from the ground up. ..... the next industrial revolution ...... “The under 25” who don’t know what they don’t know, mostly have not worked at what traditionalists would call a “real job” and are not afraid to try new things ..... the rate of change is accelerating and the possibilities are endless!

The Clean Dozen
Artificial Intelligence
Teachers Or Algorithms

Why the Interest Graph Will Reshape Social Networks (and the Next Generation of Internet Business)

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The Future of Computing

Source: New York Times

Power in Numbers: China Aims for High-Tech Primacy
Creating Artificial Intelligence Based on the Real Thing
Vast and Fertile Ground in Africa for Science to Take Root
With a Leaner Model, Start-Ups Reach Further Afield
A High-Stakes Search Continues for Silicon’s Successor
Out of a Writer’s Imagination Came an Interactive World
Looking Backward to Put New Technologies in Focus
Interactive Map
Taking Faster and Smarter to New Physical Frontiers
Leave the Driving to the Car, and Reap Benefits in Safety and Mobility
Death Knell for the Lecture: Technology as a Passport to Personalized Education
An Evolution Toward a Programmable Universe
In an Open-Source Society, Innovating by the Seat of Our Pants
Computer Scientists May Have What It Takes to Help Cure Cancer
China Is Poised for an I.T. Golden Age
New Tools for New Computing Challenges
Full Speed Ahead, Without a Map, Into New Realms of Possibility

Michell Zappa: Envisioning Technology

Source

Singularity: I Am Not Convinced

Image via Wikipedia

Time: 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal: Kurzweil believes that we're approaching a moment when computers will become intelligent, and not just intelligent but more intelligent than humans. When that happens, humanity — our bodies, our minds, our civilization — will be completely and irreversibly transformed. He believes that this moment is not only inevitable but imminent. According to his calculations, the end of human civilization as we know it is about 35 years away...... computers are getting faster faster ...... Maybe we'll merge with them to become super-intelligent cyborgs, using computers to extend our intellectual abilities the same way that cars and planes extend our physical abilities. Maybe the artificial intelligences will help us treat the effects of old age and prolong our life spans indefinitely. Maybe we'll scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually. Maybe the computers will turn on humanity and annihilate us...... even though it sounds like science fiction, it isn't, no more than a weather forecast is science fiction ....... it will be the most important thing to happen to human beings since the invention of language...... He holds 39 patents and 19 honorary doctorates. In 1999 President Bill Clinton awarded him the National Medal of Technology...... The Singularity Is Near, which was a best seller when it came out in 2005 ..... Bill Gates has called him "the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence." ..... In real life, the transcendent man is an unimposing figure who could pass for Woody Allen's even nerdier younger brother. Kurzweil grew up in Queens, N.Y....... someone who gives 60 public lectures a year..... technological progress happens exponentially, not linearly. ....... Exponential curves start slowly, then rocket skyward toward infinity....... We will successfully reverse-engineer the human brain by the mid-2020s. By the end of that decade, computers will be capable of human-level intelligence. ...... 2045 .... the quantity of artificial intelligence created will be about a billion times the sum of all
Image via Wikipediathe human intelligence that exists today....... Once you decide to take the Singularity seriously, you will find that you have become part of a small but intense and globally distributed hive of like-minded thinkers known as Singularitarians. ....... They think in terms of deep time, they believe in the power of technology to shape history, they have little interest in the conventional wisdom about anything, and they cannot believe you're walking around living your life and watching TV as if the artificial-intelligence revolution were not about to erupt and change absolutely everything........ When you enter their mind-space you pass through an extreme gradient in worldview, a hard ontological shear that separates Singularitarians from the common run of humanity. Expect turbulence....... Proponents of seasteading — the practice, so far mostly theoretical, of establishing politically autonomous floating communities in international waters ........ After artificial intelligence, the most talked-about topic at the 2010 summit was life extension. Biological boundaries that most people think of as permanent and inevitable Singularitarians see as merely intractable but solvable problems. Death is one of them. Old age is an illness like any other, and what do you do with illnesses? You cure them. ....... The mice didn't just get better; they got younger....... damage can be repaired periodically. This is why we have vintage cars. ...... Kurzweil has published two books on his own approach to life extension, which involves taking up to 200 pills and supplements a day. He says his diabetes is essentially cured, and although he's 62 years old from a chronological perspective, he estimates that his biological age is about 20 years younger....... Once hyper-intelligent artificial intelligences arise, armed with advanced nanotechnology, they'll really be able to wrestle with the vastly complex, systemic problems associated with aging in humans....... t many people who are alive today will wind up being functionally immortal....... People invested a lot of personal effort into certain philosophies dealing with the issue of life and death. I mean, that's the major reason we have religion." ........ strong AI or artificial general intelligence, doesn't exist yet. ..... there are things going on in our brains that can't be duplicated electronically no matter how many MIPS you throw at them. The neurochemical architecture that generates the ephemeral chaos we know as human consciousness may just be too complex and analog to replicate in digital silicon...... Multiple biochemical processes create chemical modifications of protein molecules, further diversified by association with distinct structures at defined locations of a cell. The resulting combinatorial explosion of states endows living systems with an almost infinite capacity to store information regarding past and present conditions and a unique capacity to prepare for future events." That makes the ones and zeros that computers trade in look pretty crude. ...... introducing a superior life-form into your own biosphere is a basic Darwinian error....... Markram has said that he hopes to have a complete virtual human brain up and running in 10 years ..... In Kurzweil's future, biotechnology and nanotechnology give us the power to manipulate our bodies and the world around us at will, at the molecular level. 
Cover via AmazonProgress hyperaccelerates, and every hour brings a century's worth of scientific breakthroughs. We ditch Darwin and take charge of our own evolution. The human genome becomes just so much code to be bug-tested and optimized and, if necessary, rewritten. Indefinite life extension becomes a reality; people die only if they choose to. Death loses its sting once and for all. Kurzweil hopes to bring his dead father back to life...... Within a matter of centuries, human intelligence will have re-engineered and saturated all the matter in the universe. ....... There are more than 2,000 robots fighting in Afghanistan alongside the human troops...... Nothing gets old as fast as the future...... Singularitarianism is grounded in the idea that change is real and that humanity is in charge of its own fate and that history might not be as simple as one damn thing after another.

I could run at two miles per hour. I could run at three miles per hour. If you extrapolate that then I should be able to run at 60 miles per hour. But I don't think that is happening.

I have not read enough on the topic, I have not read much at all. So these are my first impressions.

Besides my idea of singularity is end of poverty, a total spread of democracy, universal broadband, things like that.

Google's Prediction API

Technology Review: Google Offers Cloud-Based Learning Engine: the smartest Web services around rely on machine learning--algorithms that enable software to learn how to respond with a degree of intelligence to new information or events...... Google-hosted algorithms could be trained to sort e-mails into categories for "complaints" and "praise" using a dataset that provides many examples of both kinds .... extracting emergency information from Twitter ...... machine-learning black box--data goes in one end, and predictions come out the other ...... "This API could be a way to get a capability cheaply that would cost a huge amount through a traditional route." ... Prediction API .... has the potential to be a leveler between established companies and smaller startups

We went from big, ugly computers - mainframes - to PCs. PCs were simpler. And over time they became pretty powerful. And then the cloud emerged. The internet itself was the cloud. So I agree with Larry Ellison when he claims he has always done the cloud thing.

We went from servers to data farms. And these data farms run by big companies like Google and Facebook are huge, big enough that the electricity costs are a major headache even for these rich companies.

When Larry bought Sun, I threw a challenge in his direction. Can you build data centers that are the size of servers? Or at least small data centers? That might be nano territory. But I figured what the heck? There is never too much drama in Larry's life. What is one more challenge?

One common denominator with these disruptive technologies is they have been democratizing forces. It has always been about making it possible for more and more people, more and more businesses. We basically want everybody to be able to go online.

Google's Prediction API is a step in that same direction, and I am glad. Suddenly even small businesses will be able to make sense of large quantities of data they might end up collecting.

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A Ridiculously Good Blog Search Engine

Image via CrunchBaseI have said Google does not need social envy, instead what it needs is a ridiculously good blog search engine and ridiculously good Twitter search results. (Google Does Not Need Social Envy) What would a ridiculously good blog search engine look like?

First, it can not look like the regular Google search engine. It has to be inherently a personal experience. I should not need a separate blogroll. The blog search engine should be so good at managing my blogroll, it should be that good.

Just like Gmail took the concept of email to a whole new level, the Google blog search engine should take the concept of a blogroll to a whole new level. Following blogs on Blogger is not it. Google Reader is not it. All three have to be integrated to offer a more seamless, much more beautiful of an experience.

Blogging is a social activity. Blogs are not just information. Perhaps Google should go ahead and buy Disqus and integrate it firmly into Blogger.

And there has to be an autosearch feature. The engine is constantly searching for blog posts on topics of interest to me and serving them in beautiful ways.

Good old search where you type in words into that blank box, that is so, well, Google. That is the starting point of the current Google blog search engine, and that is so bogus.

ReadWriteWeb: Google CEO Suggests You Change Your Name to Escape His Permanent Record:teenagers should be entitled to change their names upon reaching adulthood in order to separate themselves from the Google record of their youthful indiscretions ..... the dominance of search will give way to recommendation technology ..... requires a lot of targeting and artificial intelligence ..... the CEO of history's greatest privacy-killing machine.
Wall Street Journal: Google and the Search for the Future: Where once everything seemed to go the company's way, along came Apple's iPhone, launching a new wave of Web growth on a platform that largely bypassed the browser and Google's search box..... 200,000 Android smartphones were being activated daily ..... a doubling in just three months ...... coming soon is Chrome OS, which Google hopes will do in tablets and netbooks what Android is doing in smartphones, i.e., give Google a commanding share of the future and leave, in this case, Microsoft in the dust...... how to preserve Google's franchise in Web advertising, the source of almost all its profits, when "search" is outmoded..... more and more searches are done on your behalf without you needing to type ...... "The thing that makes newspapers so fundamentally fascinating—that serendipity—can be calculated now. We can actually produce it electronically" ..... "The power of individual targeting—the technology will be so good it will be very hard for people to watch or consume something that has not in some sense been tailored for them." ..... "As you go from the search box [to the next phase of Google], you really want to go from syntax to semantics, from what you typed to what you meant. And that's basically the role of [Artificial Intelligence]. I think we will be the world leader in that for a long time." ...... the sheer impracticality of net neutrality on mobile networks where demand is likely to outstrip capacity for the foreseeable future. ..... make sure its every move is "good for consumers" and "fair" to competitors. ....... regulation is unnecessary because Google faces such strong incentives to treat its users right ...... Schmidt awards Facebook his highest accolade, calling it a "company of consequence." ..... Google captured the search wave and shows every sign of positioning itself successfully for the mobile wave. As for the waves after that, your guess may be as good as Mr. Schmidt's.

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Google Does Not Need Social Envy

Image via CrunchBase

Microsoft could not have become Google. We should not be surprised Google has not been able to become Facebook. Facebook is not Twitter. Twitter is not FourSquare.

I have been arguing at this blog that it just is not in Google's DNA to do social. Being very good at information necessarily clashes with you becoming very good at social. There is a clash.

But social is big and getting bigger. What is Google to do?

I think Google should focus on the information and search aspects of social.

I'd love to have a ridiculously good blog search engine. And I'd love to have ridiculously good Twitter search results.

And Facebook is not doing Android, Google is. That is big one.

The Chrome OS is a really big one.

It is not possible for one company to come up with everything. That is unrealistic. That is not possible. Google is still doing cutting edge work. But it is not doing all cutting edge work. That is reality.



Om Malik: Slide, Vic Gundotra, The Un-Social Reality of Google

The world’s largest search engine covets a key to the magical kingdom called the social web. It would do anything to become part of that exclusive club that, for now, is the domain of Mark Zuckerberg’s Facebook and to some extent, Twitter..... Having failed to hire a head of social, Google decided to put its man for all seasons, Vic Gundotra, in charge of social. .... Social is more than just features ..... what it can’t do is internalize empathy. It doesn’t know feelings. It doesn’t comprehend that relationships are more than a mere algorithm .... the social web is moving toward a future where serendipity replaces search.....Buying Slide, investing in Zynga or launching Google Me are great ideas in theory, just as is the idea of me playing baseball!

Erich Schmidt: ReadWriteWeb: Google CEO Schmidt: "People Aren't Ready for the Technology Revolution"

"There was 5 exabytes of information created between the dawn of civilization through 2003," Schmidt said, "but that much information is now created every 2 days, and the pace is increasing...People aren't ready for the technology revolution that's going to happen to them." .... user generated content .... "If I look at enough of your messaging and your location, and use Artificial Intelligence," Schmidt said, "we can predict where you are going to go." ...... "Show us 14 photos of yourself and we can identify who you are. You think you don't have 14 photos of yourself on the internet? ..... diseases and other crises will become predictable as well ..... "In our lifetimes," Schmidt says, "we'll go from a small number of people having access to information, to 5 billion people having all the world's knowledge in their native language."

Eric Schmidt on What the Web Will Look Like in 5 Years

Schmidt envisions a radically changed internet five years from now: dominated by Chinese-language and social media content, delivered over super-fast bandwidth in real time. Figuring out how to rank real-time social content is "the great challenge of the age" .....Today's teenagers are the model of how the web will work in five years - they jump from app to app to app seamlessly. ....... Within five years there will be broadband well above 100MB in performance - and distribution distinctions between TV, radio and the web will go away. ..... "We can index real-time info now - but how do we rank it?" ..... Not discussed were distributed social networking, structured data, recommendations, presence data and other factors that could complicate Google's plans.

Is Spamming Twitter Good Google SEO?

tweeting the same link over and over can boost a page's rank ..... Too many tweets over a certain period of time will be noticed by Google's algorithm. Tweets are just one of many "signals" Google uses to determine rank and cannot be as easily gamed

Google Says It "Overestimated" Complete Block of Web Search in China [UPDATED]

Google had been automatically redirecting google.cn to google.hk, its uncensored site in Hong Kong, but stopped that practice earlier this month and simply included a link to google.hk on the google.cn site in order to pacify Chinese lawmakers.

Android Phones Go to War

a social-networking type of display where soldiers interact as "buddies" and track each others' movements on the battlefield. ..... soldiers would carry smartphones with them into battle ..... Military satellites can focus in on minute features you can't see when using consumer-grade technology like Google Earth, so the software installed on RATS could potentially zero in on facial features or be used to read license plates..... the Indian military is another potential customer for this Android-based technology

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