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Thursday, May 22, 2025

Waymo, Tesla Robotaxi, Cost Per Mile, And Public Transit

 Let’s break it down with real numbers.

🟢 PART 1: Robotaxi vs Human-Driven Taxi (Cost Per Mile)

Let’s take an average human-driven taxi and compare it to a Waymo or Tesla robotaxi:

Assumptions:

Item Human Taxi Robotaxi (Electric)
Driver Salary (inc. benefits) $0.75/mile $0
Fuel Cost $0.20/mile $0.04/mile (electricity)
Maintenance $0.10/mile $0.06/mile
Insurance & Licensing $0.15/mile $0.15/mile
Vehicle Depreciation $0.25/mile $0.25/mile
Total Cost per Mile $1.45 $0.50

Savings per mile: $0.95 (65%)

So, a robotaxi is 65% cheaper per mile than a human-driven taxi — driven largely by removing the driver and lowering energy costs.


🟢 PART 2: Autonomous Bus vs Human-Driven Bus

Now let’s scale up to a self-driving electric bus.

Assumptions for 40-seater bus:

Item Human Bus Self-Driving Electric Bus
Driver Salary (loaded) $0.40/passenger-mile $0
Fuel (Diesel vs Electric) $0.15/passenger-mile $0.03
Maintenance $0.05 $0.03
Insurance & Misc. $0.07 $0.07
Vehicle Cost (amortized) $0.13 $0.13
Total Cost per Passenger-Mile $0.80 $0.26

Savings per passenger-mile: $0.54 (67.5%)

That’s massive. Cities could reduce costs dramatically — from $0.80 to $0.26 per passenger-mile.


🟢 PART 3: What This Means for Free Public Transit

Let’s do a city-wide calculation:

  • Say a city runs 10 million passenger-miles per day.

  • Current Cost (Human Bus): 10M x $0.80 = $8M/day

  • Autonomous Electric Bus: 10M x $0.26 = $2.6M/day

💸 Daily savings = $5.4M → That’s almost $2 billion/year in savings.

So with enough scale, it may actually be cheaper for cities to run free autonomous electric bus systems than to operate or subsidize current systems. Free, frequent, clean — and automated.


🟢 Bottom Line

  • 🚖 Robotaxis slash 65%+ of costs vs regular taxis.

  • 🚌 Self-driving buses cut public transit costs by two-thirds.

  • 📉 Removing drivers + switching to electric = huge compounding savings.

  • 💡 At scale, free transit isn’t just utopian — it’s fiscally smart.




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