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Showing posts with label public transit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label public transit. Show all posts

Sunday, June 08, 2025

Beyond Full Self-Driving: The Smarter, Faster Path to Safer Transit



Beyond Full Self-Driving: The Smarter, Faster Path to Safer Transit

Introduction

The race to Full Self-Driving (FSD) has become one of the most ambitious and elusive frontiers in AI and mobility. But what if the smartest way forward isn’t to leap into full autonomy—but to augment human drivers in structured systems like buses, trains, and last-mile EVs? Advanced Assisted Driving (AAD), when strategically deployed across electric public transport networks and integrated with unified ticketing, may not only be easier to achieve technically and politically—it could actually move cities toward smarter, safer, and more accessible transportation much faster than waiting for Level 5 autonomy.

The Problem with Full Self Driving (FSD)

FSD aims to eliminate the human from the driving loop entirely. While this is appealing in theory, it faces:

  • Edge-case complexity (weather, pedestrians, unpredictable road behaviors)

  • Regulatory uncertainty

  • Massive data and compute demands

  • Public trust and liability concerns

Most critically, FSD attempts to solve all problems at once—urban, rural, chaotic, structured. This universalism becomes its bottleneck.

AAD: A Smarter Interim Step

Advanced Assisted Driving doesn’t seek to replace the driver—it empowers them. In structured environments like electric buses and trains (which operate on predefined routes), or even electric last-mile cars (in low-speed urban zones), AAD can provide:

  • Collision avoidance

  • Lane discipline

  • Speed and braking automation

  • Fatigue monitoring and alertness support

  • Route guidance and schedule optimization

This “pilot + autopilot” model significantly boosts safety and efficiency—without needing to crack the hardest problems of FSD.

Why Public Transport Is the Ideal Sandbox

Unlike private vehicles, electric buses and trains operate in constrained and predictable environments:

  • Defined stops, lanes, and schedules

  • Centralized control and fleet management

  • Professional drivers trained to collaborate with assistive tech

Integrating AAD here is not only easier to test and scale, it sets a public-sector precedent for AI adoption that benefits society at large.

Electric Last-Mile Cars: The Missing Link

In dense cities, the last mile is often the slowest, least organized leg of a journey. Deploying electric last-mile vehicles (mini shuttles, pods, tuk-tuk-like EVs) with AAD makes urban mobility safer, smoother, and greener.

These vehicles can be:

  • Geo-fenced

  • Low-speed (under 30 km/h)

  • Easily routed via apps

Such constraints reduce the need for complex AI decision-making while still offering immense benefits in traffic management and user convenience.

The Power of One Unified Ticket

The final transformative piece is ticket integration. Imagine going from Point A to B using:

  • A metro or train for your main leg

  • An electric bus to get to your stop

  • A last-mile EV car to your doorstep

All with one app, one ticket, one price.

By linking physical mobility with digital unification, the system becomes:

  • Easier to use

  • Easier to plan

  • Easier to fund

  • Easier to optimize using data

This creates “intelligent intermodality”: where the system, not just the vehicle, is smart.

Why This Is a Better Near-Term Bet

Compared to FSD, this model:

  • Requires less radical regulatory change

  • Delivers real safety benefits now

  • Enables public-private collaboration

  • Creates sustainable urban mobility with net-zero goals

  • Builds public trust in AI transportation systems gradually

In short: AAD for structured electric transport is not just more achievable—it’s more impactful.

Conclusion

The dream of Full Self Driving may still take another decade—or more. But Advanced Assisted Driving for electric public and last-mile vehicles, linked by unified ticketing, is a future we can build today. It’s not only technologically practical but also aligned with urban planning, public safety, climate goals, and the immediate needs of millions.

Rather than chasing a moonshot, this is a skybridge—connecting where we are with where we need to go.


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Sunday, June 01, 2025

Why Smart Surface Public Transport Will Beat Full Self-Driving to the Future




Why Smart Surface Public Transport Will Beat Full Self-Driving to the Future

When tech visionary Vinod Khosla tweets about the promise of Full Self-Driving (FSD) cars, it’s easy to get swept up in the optimism. After all, FSD has been "just around the corner" for over a decade. Yet here we are—still cornered. In response to Khosla’s tweet, I offered a two-part reply that captures the central flaw in this line of thinking:

  1. Advanced Assisted Driving is within reach, but true FSD remains elusive—despite a decade of hype.

  2. Public smart electric buses are a far more viable, scalable path to a self-driving future.

Let’s break this down.

FSD: A Decade of Promises, Still Not Delivered

Tesla’s so-called “Full Self-Driving” has been in testing or "beta" since 2015. Billions of miles and countless edge-case scenarios later, it's still a high-end driver assist system—not autonomy. The fact that Tesla still requires human supervision for a feature called "Full Self-Driving" should be a red flag.

Compare this to the much-maligned case of Elizabeth Holmes. Theranos’ promise of digitized blood samples—while fundamentally sound in concept—took less time to not deliver. In other words, even a failed moonshot came to its natural conclusion faster than FSD’s slow-motion struggle toward autonomy.

The Case for Smart Public Electric Buses

If we genuinely want to move society toward a self-driving future, we need to think less about individual cars and more about shared infrastructure. Smart electric buses operating on pre-mapped, geofenced routes—such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lanes—represent a far easier use case for autonomy.

Here’s why:

  • Fewer edge cases: A defined route means fewer unpredictable variables, such as complex intersections, pedestrians darting out, or unusual traffic patterns.

  • Infrastructure can assist AI: Buses can communicate with smart traffic lights, GPS beacons, and dedicated lanes—making autonomy easier, safer, and more reliable.

  • Higher impact per vehicle: A single autonomous bus can move dozens of people, easing congestion and carbon emissions faster than private FSD vehicles ever could.

  • Simpler regulatory path: Cities are more likely to greenlight controlled-use public vehicles than risk FSD cars navigating unpredictable urban environments without drivers.

  • Lower economic barrier: You don't need $80,000 and a software update. You need government commitment and a modest tech stack that already exists.

A Smarter Future Isn’t Private, It’s Public

If we’re serious about clean, smart, scalable mobility, we must shift focus from the car to the collective. FSD, as sold today, is a technological vanity project masquerading as a transportation solution. But smart surface public transport—electric buses with driver assist and geofencing—could start solving urban mobility this year, not in some perpetually deferred future.

In fact, it’s not that FSD tech can’t work—it’s that applying it first to personal vehicles is a backwards approach. Think of the aviation industry. Autopilot didn’t start with private jets—it began with commercial aircraft on clearly defined flight paths.

Final Word

Khosla is right to believe in the potential of self-driving tech. But the bet should be on public infrastructure, not private toys for the rich. The future of FSD is public, electric, surface-based, and already achievable—if only we shift our focus and will.

Let’s stop trying to make every car a spaceship and start making every bus a smart mover.




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Thursday, May 22, 2025

Waymo, Tesla Robotaxi, Cost Per Mile, And Public Transit

 Let’s break it down with real numbers.

๐ŸŸข PART 1: Robotaxi vs Human-Driven Taxi (Cost Per Mile)

Let’s take an average human-driven taxi and compare it to a Waymo or Tesla robotaxi:

Assumptions:

Item Human Taxi Robotaxi (Electric)
Driver Salary (inc. benefits) $0.75/mile $0
Fuel Cost $0.20/mile $0.04/mile (electricity)
Maintenance $0.10/mile $0.06/mile
Insurance & Licensing $0.15/mile $0.15/mile
Vehicle Depreciation $0.25/mile $0.25/mile
Total Cost per Mile $1.45 $0.50

✅ Savings per mile: $0.95 (65%)

So, a robotaxi is 65% cheaper per mile than a human-driven taxi — driven largely by removing the driver and lowering energy costs.

๐ŸŸข PART 2: Autonomous Bus vs Human-Driven Bus

Now let’s scale up to a self-driving electric bus.

Assumptions for 40-seater bus:

Item Human Bus Self-Driving Electric Bus
Driver Salary (loaded) $0.40/passenger-mile $0
Fuel (Diesel vs Electric) $0.15/passenger-mile $0.03
Maintenance $0.05 $0.03
Insurance & Misc. $0.07 $0.07
Vehicle Cost (amortized) $0.13 $0.13
Total Cost per Passenger-Mile $0.80 $0.26

✅ Savings per passenger-mile: $0.54 (67.5%)

That’s massive. Cities could reduce costs dramatically — from $0.80 to $0.26 per passenger-mile.

๐ŸŸข PART 3: What This Means for Free Public Transit

Let’s do a city-wide calculation:

  • Say a city runs 10 million passenger-miles per day.

  • Current Cost (Human Bus): 10M x $0.80 = $8M/day

  • Autonomous Electric Bus: 10M x $0.26 = $2.6M/day

๐Ÿ’ธ Daily savings = $5.4M → That’s almost $2 billion/year in savings.

So with enough scale, it may actually be cheaper for cities to run free autonomous electric bus systems than to operate or subsidize current systems. Free, frequent, clean — and automated.

๐ŸŸข Bottom Line

  • ๐Ÿš– Robotaxis slash 65%+ of costs vs regular taxis.

  • ๐ŸšŒ Self-driving buses cut public transit costs by two-thirds.

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ Removing drivers + switching to electric = huge compounding savings.

  • ๐Ÿ’ก At scale, free transit isn’t just utopian — it’s fiscally smart.




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Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Why Surface-Level Smart Public Transit Beats Tunnels and Air Taxis for Dense Cities





Why Surface-Level Smart Public Transit Beats Tunnels and Air Taxis for Dense Cities

In the race to solve urban mobility challenges, it's tempting to dream big: underground tunnels whizzing people beneath traffic, or air taxis zipping across the skyline. These futuristic visions dominate headlines, promising to "disrupt" how we move in cities. But let’s be clear—if the goal is to maximize traveler density per mile in already densely populated areas, the most efficient, scalable, and humane solution isn’t below or above—it’s right in front of us.

Surface-level smart public transportation is the answer.

The Tunnel Mirage

Elon Musk's tunnel concept, The Boring Company, proposes underground highways to bypass urban congestion. But beyond the significant engineering challenges and costs, there's a hidden toll: psychological discomfort. Being underground, often in confined vehicles with no natural light or orientation, is disorienting and stressful. Not everyone will choose that daily.

Moreover, tunnels are point-to-point, inflexible systems. Adding new stops or changing routes is almost impossible once infrastructure is built. And let’s not forget: underground spaces are inaccessible in emergencies, costly to maintain, and environmentally dubious when compared to surface alternatives.

Air Taxis: Fantasy in the Sky

Air taxis make for great science fiction and VC decks. But they come with loud noise, high energy use, intense safety requirements, and limited carrying capacity. The technology might mature, but it’s unlikely to ever serve more than a niche of high-income travelers.

Even if they become silent, safe, and semi-affordable, air space is limited, and the urban sky simply can’t scale to the density of footpaths, let alone roads or rail lines. They might be part of the mix, but they won't carry the bulk of a city's travelers.

The Smart Surface Revolution

What works is what already works—buses, trains, and taxis—but with a layer of intelligence.

Imagine a city where trains, buses, and last-mile shuttles (or even ride-hailing cabs) are seamlessly connected in a digital ecosystem. A traveler books a journey from Point A to Point B on one app, and behind the scenes, the system calculates the most efficient combo of transport modes. Your train, your connecting bus, your final mile tuk-tuk—all aware of each other’s location, capacity, and timing. No wait times. No gaps in the journey.

This is multi-modal transport, unified through AI and real-time data.

It offers:

  • High traveler density per mile at low marginal cost.

  • Psychological comfort—open skies, familiar environments, human scale.

  • Rapid scalability—you don’t need to dig or fly, just coordinate better.

  • Inclusivity—everyone, not just the wealthy, can afford and access it.

Conclusion: Futuristic Doesn’t Mean Floating

Cities don’t need to float in the sky or tunnel like moles to be efficient. The best systems are those that align with human behavior, economic reality, and existing infrastructure.

Yes, explore air taxis and tunnel tech. But don’t lose sight of the real future: a surface-level, intelligent, connected public transit network that feels as smooth as flying, without leaving the ground.

Urban mobility doesn’t need to reinvent physics—it just needs to talk to itself.




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Tuesday, October 16, 2018

The Top Transit System In The World Suffers For Lack Of Tech

The MTA seeks high-tech solutions for its bus and subway crisis ‘A dire need’ for new products to fix subway delays and move buses through congested streets
New York’s subways and buses are in crisis. As it copes with cascading delays, traffic congestion, and declines in ridership, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) is seeking salvation from an unlikely source: the tech sector. On Wednesday, the MTA announced the creation of “the nation’s first Transit Tech Lab,” an accelerator designed to vet new high-tech products designed to help improve the nation’s largest public transit system.


The number one solution is Hyperloop. Speed up the construction of the Boston-NYC-DC Hyperloop. One megacity 100 million strong is waiting in the wings. The NYC-DC stretch will be a 30 minute swing, city center to city center. Which means If it takes you 20-30 minutes to get to the city center, you are within reasonable commute distance. All sorts of small residential towns will flourish within that 30 minute strike distance from the DC, Baltimore, Philly, and NYC city centers.

But for NYC that one track will not be enough. NYC needs to go axial with Hyperloop. You know how roads fan out diagonally from the Eiffel Tower in Paris? Something similar needs to happen to NYC with Hyperloop. With Penn Station as the hub, a bunch of 10-15 minute rides need to be carved out. Where I live in right now - Middletown, NY - is a sweet 10 minute Hyperloop distance from Penn Station. What that means is all shorter distances simply don't make economic sense. To that add 15 minutes to get to the train station both ways, and that is a healthy 45 minute commute to and from work. Such Middletowns need to be located in all directions from Penn Station.

You have to rethink real estate. The sector is ripe for disruption. The wooden frame house is the horse carriage. It's time now for the motor car: factory made metal frame homes that bring the costs down 50%.

And then you can hope to tackle the internal congestion. With this radial Hyperloop solution, you will also have solved the housing crisis. Houses are too artificially expensive. Everyone who has a job deserves to be able to buy a house. How do you do that? By bringing the price on the houses down. Manufactured homes have made vast improvements. They offer better designs than conventional houses, are far stronger (try hurricane, fire, earthquake proof ... bring it on, Sandy!) and are on average half the price of similar sized wooden frame houses. And you can set them up by cutting few trees. Heck, you could have tree houses.

You want the rural, rustic lifestyle of trees all around you, but you also want the advantage of having 10 million people congregated on one island. The knowledge economy, the service economy is the future. The soft skills will be in vogue as robots and AI relentlessly eat into the hard skills of hammering nails.

One 100 million strong megacity will also free up large chunks of land across the country. America should plant itself an Amazon forest. The top contributing country to global warming should take the lead on planting some trees.

Once you get the big picture correct and start making moves towards it, you can then come to fixing the trains and buses. Big Data is no substitute for fixing traffic signals, and orchestrating fewer cars on the streets, but Big Data can go a long way. Who says city governments can't invest in tech startups? A few good moves and the city debt is paid for.

Data is the new oil. The city could charge for the data it collects.

WiFi all across the Subway would turn the trains into the place where people go to have meetings. It will also help serve ads. I am for keeping the ticket prices down. The subway cab is where New Yorkers meet each other. 100 maybe thousand times truer than Central Park.

Google's Waymo car service is custom made for NYC. It is already active in Phoenix. Ends up if you don't need drivers cab rides are super cheap. And self driving cars don't need parking space, they automatically do car pooling. One person in a four seater car is the traffic congestion problem that is for lack of intelligence. Artifical Intelligence, that is.


















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