Wednesday, October 09, 2019

The Dubai Magic (4)

Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation
The Dubai Magic (1)
The Dubai Magic (2)
The Dubai Magic (3)

How Dubai Became Dubai how St. Petersburg, Shanghai, Mumbai and Dubai have become “crucibles of non-Western modernity.” ........

Dubai’s transformation from outlandish idea to an economic powerhouse of the Middle East.

......... The world became acquainted with Dubai only a few years ago. ..... was presented to Westerners as many things:

Rich, strange, tacky, threatening.

....... a “skyline on crack” .....

With 96 percent of its population foreign born, Dubai makes even New York City’s diversity — 37 percent of New Yorkers are immigrants — seem mundane.

....... Dubai is a city where “everyone and everything in it — its luxuries, laborers, architects, accents, even its aspirations — was flown in from someplace else.” ...... Dubai was touted as a new phenomenon, but it is actually just the most recent iteration of a far older one. For 300 years, instant cities modeled on the West have been built in the developing world in audacious attempts to wrench a lagging region into the modern world. While the rise of these global crossroads cities was once checked by the speed of ocean liners and locomotives, today their growth is powered by intercontinental jets that can move a passenger from any major city in the world to any other in a single day. So

while the city of Dubai is new, the idea of Dubai is not. It’s just that in the age of jet-powered globalization, the idea can achieve liftoff as never before

.......... As the locomotive built Daniel Burnham’s Chicago, the jetliner built [United Arab Emirates Prime Minister] Sheikh Mohammed’s Dubai. In 1974, Sheikh Rashid tasked the young Mohammed with overseeing the growth of Dubai International Airport. In the 1980s, Mohammed tapped British Airways veteran Maurice Flanagan to launch Emirates airline, which would become an archetype of the Dubai model: A state-owned company managed by Western experts that would thrive in open international competition. ............ Saudis and Iranians came to shop and enjoy the libertine nightlife banned in their native theocracies. Entrepreneurial Russians arrived to empty Dubai’s store shelves and resell the items back home during the chaos of the Soviet collapse and post-Soviet free fall. ...........

most of the world’s population lives within a reasonable flying time of the city-state.

...... the United States taxes foreign-earned incomes above $91,500 .......

(As the UAE has no antidiscrimination law, by company policy, Emirates prefers not to hire male flight attendants.)

........ Dubai was a common refueling stop for hijacked jets, and Sheikh Mohammed became one of the world’s most experienced hostage negotiators. ....... In dealings with fearsome groups including the (pre-Oslo) Palestine Liberation Organization, Japanese Red Army and Baader-Meinhof Gang, an underground cell of West German radicals,

Mohammed never lost a passenger

. ........... The young sheikh’s triumphs barely made the international news, but they foreshadowed a development strategy that would serve his city well: Dubai would be an island of stability in a wealthy but volatile region, headed by a businessman/autocrat who thrived on high-stakes negotiations. To achieve liftoff, Dubai just needed a spark. That spark would be the most devastating hijacking of them all: 9/11. .............. Though only a sole Emirati was among the 9/11 hijackers, Dubai was crucial to the attacks. Since Dubai is the air hub of the Middle East, the majority of the perpetrators entered the United States via Dubai. And because Dubai is the financial hub of the Gulf, the money that funded the plot flowed through its banks. Moreover, in the run-up to the attacks, the Emirati elite had protected al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden, if, perhaps, unwittingly. In 1999, the CIA abandoned an opportunity to execute bin Laden on a hunting trip because they believed Emirati royalty were leading the expedition. A cruise missile attack “might have wiped out half of the UAE royal family,” CIA chief George Tenet later testified. ......... the Americans, for whom Dubai serves as the largest overseas naval port ......... Hardly dyed-in-the-wool jihadis, the Emirati royals likely saw bin Laden as an eccentric buddy — part of their social milieu of Gulf Arab millionaire heirs but with an added frisson of radical chic. .......... the 9/11 attacks .... it was a boon, setting off massive growth that was only halted by the global financial crisis. ......... The anti-money-laundering provisions of the Patriot Act, passed in the wake of 9/11, made investing in the United States less appealing to wealthy Gulf Arabs. Saudis alone are estimated to have pulled over $300 billion in assets out of the United States. At the same time, the instability in the Middle East set off by the attacks and the subsequent American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq helped raise the price of oil, which already had been creeping upward in response to increasing demand in developing economies like China and India. Thus, 9/11 both showered oil profits on the Gulf and ensured that those profits would be invested close to home. As the regional financial center, Dubai was the logical place to invest locally.

Sheikh Mohammed moved quickly to turn the increasing capital flows into a gusher

.......... In 2002, Mohammed issued a land reform decree allowing foreigners to own real estate in Dubai — a first in any Gulf state. ....... Loaded Lebanese afraid of another civil war back home, Indian nouveaux riches seeking respite from the poverty at their doorsteps, and Russian oligarchs banking assets stripped from operations in their decaying motherland all poured cash into Dubai properties. ................ What Miami had long been for the elite of Latin America — a place to park wealth too risky to keep back home — Dubai became for the magnates and kleptocrats of the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and the former Soviet Union. ....... The apotheosis of this trend would come in 2009, when the dictator of Azerbaijan amassed nine waterfront mansions during a two-week, $44 million buying spree — all purchased in the name of his 11-year-old son. ......... the global real estate consulting firm Jones Lang LaSalle touted Dubai, along with Dublin and Las Vegas, as its “World Winning City” for 2002. .........

All three cities experienced massive booms, but Dubai’s was the most explosive. ........ Dubai was a real-life SimCity, a fantastical metropolis that looked as if it had magically leapt from an architect’s laptop running the latest computer-assisted design software out onto the pristine desert.

........... Housing developments sprouted up along the beachfront, and office towers rose along the city’s massive freeway spine, Sheikh Zayed Road, in the most outlandish shapes: An enormous golf tee, a silvery sandworm, even a proposed spherical “Dubai Death Star.” Architecture firms struggled to keep up with demand, importing new employees so fast that they could scarcely find desks for them all. ....... Between 2002 and 2008, the city’s population doubled and its urbanized footprint quadrupled — in part from speculation-driven land-reclamation projects reminiscent of the 19th-century Bombay boom, albeit in outlandish shapes of palm trees and maps of the world.

In 2008, Dubai experienced as much property development as Shanghai, a city with 13 times its population.

........ Through a parallel strategy designed to lure multinational companies, Sheikh Mohammed successfully turned Dubai into the global business hub of the Middle East. In the early 1980s, Mohammed had breathed new life into the languishing Jebel Ali port by declaring it Dubai’s first “free zone.” The term was something of a misnomer. Free zones in many countries were simply areas where companies were exempt from taxation. But in Dubai, there were no corporate or income taxes to begin with; the government was funded largely with the profits of state-owned enterprises, oil revenues and sin taxes on alcohol. Jebel Ali Free Zone was more like a Special Economic Zone in Deng Xiaoping’s China, where separate laws applied within the SEZ than beyond the gates. Beyond the borders of Jebel Ali, strict, traditional Shariah law would still govern business relations (under Shariah, for instance, those who can’t pay their debts are imprisoned). But inside the new free zone, business could be done much as it was done in the West, according to a specially crafted civil legal code geared specifically toward port businesses. Jebel Ali thrived under the new regime, becoming one of the busiest ports on the planet. Today, it processes over 10 million shipping containers annually. ............ With the success of Jebel Ali, Sheikh Mohammed began carving other free zones out of the desert, each specifically designed to woo an industry he felt would benefit Dubai. ........ Being a single city governed under multiple legal regimes would come to define Dubai. Global cities have always struggled with how to apply laws to their diverse assemblages of people. Through its patchwork of free zones, Dubai had come up with a new answer. While in the foreign concessions of Shanghai, different people were bound by different legal codes based on their nationality, in Dubai the same people would be governed by different legal codes depending on where they were within the city. .........

In Shanghai, extraterritoriality meant that no matter where you were in the treaty port, you were, in a legal sense, always back home; in Dubai, the free zones made traveling from neighborhood to neighborhood, in a legal sense, like moving from country to country.

........ The Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) free zone, opened in 2002, is physically set on a block of desert off of Sheikh Zayed Road. The DIFC complex, designed by San Francisco architecture firm Gensler as a massive horseshoe-shaped office building wrapped around a central 12-story arch, soon filled up with the giants of global banking, including Citibank, HSBC, Standard Chartered and Credit Suisse. As with the architectural blueprints, the intellectual blueprints for the DIFC had been drawn up for the monarch by an American firm — consulting behemoth McKinsey — which advised the Dubai government to create a financial district governed by Western-style business regulations. It fell to veteran finance regulator Errol Hoopmann, who was hired away from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in 2003, to write the legal code. “The whole concept here was to vacate 110 acres of [land of UAE] laws, just empty it of civil and commercial laws,” Hoopmann explained in his Australian accent, wearing a pinstriped suit in his office atop the arch. “And then we had to write our own laws to fill up that vacuum. And those laws are based on mainly UK [regulations] —

though there’s an awful lot of Australian because I wrote it.”

.........Hoopmann called the DIFC “a state within a state… We compare it to the Vatican.” ........ Like a state, the DIFC has its own court system, presided over by an imported British judge, to enforce its laws. The DIFC even has its own official currency — the U.S. dollar rather than the UAE dirham — and its own official language. “English is the official language, in a sense, of the country we’ve got here,” Hoopmann said. ........ Beyond the 110 acres of the DIFC lies the realm of debtors’ prisons — about 40 percent of Dubai’s prisoners are in jail on debt charges — but inside, business can be done as it’s done in New York, with dollars and English and lawsuits. .......... In 1999, saltwater-inundated lowlands along Sheikh Zayed Road were drained and set aside to become two contiguous free zones, Internet City and Media City. ....... To entice companies to locate in Internet City and Media City, Dubai’s authorities exempted the contiguous free zones from the UAE’s strict Internet censorship policy. In the twin zones, the government promised, the Internet would be fully searchable (except for sites based in Israel, which would remain blocked). .......... unlike other authoritarian countries, notably China, the UAE is completely transparent about its Internet censorship. In the UAE, censored sites are blocked not with the message “The connection has been reset” but with “We apologize the site you are attempting to visit has been blocked due to its content being inconsistent with the religious, cultural, political and moral values of the United Arab Emirates.” ......... prohibits, among other sites, web pages with instructions for computer hacking and bomb making and sites that offer Internet gambling and Internet dating, which, according to the regulations, “contradicts with the ethics and morals of the UAE.” ......... the Washington State–based software giant could lease space rent-free for 50 years .......... Internet City hosts the Middle East headquarters of not only Microsoft but Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Canon ......... despite its big corporate names, Dubai has only been able to lure the finance and marketing departments of the tech companies. Assurance of free thought in one designated neighborhood has not been enough to woo the creative research and development and programming departments, which remain clustered in the more liberal nearby nations of India and Israel. .........

Internet City, for all its successes, is still hamstrung by the lack of intellectual freedom in the wider city-state of Dubai.

........... The city-state was an ideal place from which to cover the American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Journalists could hop on a plane for a short flight into the war zones, do their reporting, and then return to their office in rich, peaceful, stable Dubai. ......... To Sheikh Mohammed, part of the allure of building Media City was free publicity. Bringing major bureaus to the city helped make Dubai a global household name as locally based journalists ended up covering fluffy stories in the city-state that they would never have covered farther afield. Dubai’s over-the-top real estate projects — a shopping mall with an enormous indoor ski slope, giant man-made islands shaped like palm trees — became world famous. Many Dubai developments seem to have been conceived with just such stories in mind. ............ In 2007, at the request of fellow regional autocrat, Pakistani strongman General Pervez Musharraf, Dubai shut down two independent Pakistani media outlets that were reporting on unrest in their home country from Media City. .........

in 2011, Google’s Middle East marketing director, Wael Ghonim, openly organized revolutionary protests in his native Egypt via uncensored Facebook from his Internet City office.








Dubai 2021
Dubai Economic Report 2018

The Dubai Magic (3)

Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation
The Dubai Magic (1)
The Dubai Magic (2)

Dubai – the future business capital of the world? Dubai has emerged as a leading global hub for financial services, logistics, hospitality and trade ....... A major event planned for 2020 is a six-month-long exhibition of trade, innovation and products from around the world. Expo 2020 Dubai, is expected to attract 25 million visitors to the city, with 70% of visitors coming from outside the UAE. ........ “Human ingenuity” has always been key to Dubai’s success. ....... Dubai has consistently recognised that embracing exciting new developments and opportunities is essential in creating a strong dynamic centre. ........ 3000 BC The first human settlement in Dubai ........ 1930 Dubai becomes a successful port, with a population of nearly 20,000, and is already popular with expats ......... 1966 Oil is discovered in the Dubai region, with revenue from oil exports is used to finance major investment in transport links and establish schools, hospitals and telecommunications networks ......... 1971 Dubai, along with Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Fujayrah, Sharjah and Umm al Quwain gain independence from Great Britain and form the United Arab Emirates. Dubai International Airport officially opens ...... 1999 The world’s only seven-star hotel, Burj Al-Arab opens .......... 2017/18 Dubai becomes one of the world’s top five centres for trade, logistics, finance and tourism, and the Capital of Islamic Economy ......... A background of economic and political stability has provided the foundation for Dubai’s continued progress as a leading centre for trade, logistics, finance and tourism. Its future is looking bright, as it moves away from the region’s dependency on oil to a more diverse economic make-up. ........ the transformation of the economy accelerated as oil surged to a record $147 a barrel in 2008, but continued in the aftermath of the financial crisis when oil plummeted to a low of $26 in 2016. .........

its aim to become the “most business-friendly city in the world”

........ Boosting its position as a leading financial centre .......... plans to accelerate the transition towards a knowledge economy by allocating 8% of the total government spend to develop performance and establish a culture of excellence and innovation, particularly in cutting-edge technology such as nanotechnology and the Internet of Things......... technology is expected to increasingly impact the workplace with more flexible working patterns and collaboration......... Dubai is bringing businesses closer to the world’s fastest-emerging markets



Dubai culture and lifestyle: what to expect Modern Dubai is a multicultural and diverse city, that has developed rapidly since its origins as a fishing and trading port in the early 1900s.......... By the 1930s, Dubai’s popularity was growing, with immigrants making up around one-quarter of the population. ......... 2021 Dubai Plan, which focuses on six key areas: its people, society, experience, place, economy and government – to make Dubai the best city it can be. .........

Today’s Dubai is a fusion of more than 200 nationalities – with Emiratis making up only around 10% of the population of 9.5 million. Individuals pay no income, property or capital gains tax, which makes it an attractive financial proposition for many expats.

....... The hottest months are between June and September, when temperatures average 45C. A cooler 24-25C is usual in January and February....... "When it comes to socialising, such as experiencing the local nightlife, there is little difference to Europe." ......... “It’s an extremely safe place, with a zero-tolerance approach to bad behavior and crime. As long as you stay respectful to the city and its modern, Middle Eastern traditions, this is one of the best places to live.” ......... “The culture today has a deep respect for religion, time with family, and intangible heritage like poetry, storytelling and falconry; it can be tricky to navigate on your own. At the Sheikh Mohammed Centre for Cultural Understanding in Dubai you can learn about local customs at special events. Modest dress and a few words in Arabic open a lot of doors and make it easier for others to approach you.”........ “However, if you have legal problems – consumer rights issues or tenancy disputes – there may seem to be very little redress.” ........ The court system operates in Arabic ..... Understanding the laws – most of which are in Arabic – and finding a good lawyer and/or translator is essential for those involved in a court case. ....... “It’s easy to spend all your earnings. .......... Most apartment blocks and compounds popular with expatriates have gyms and swimming pools exclusively for residents. ........

The working week in Dubai runs from Sunday to Thursday

....... Dubai is seen as the top city in which to live in the Middle East and North Africa. ......... Expats need to be aware of Dubai’s cultural and religious norms – and an increasing cost of living – but they will be rewarded with a diverse and welcoming place to live and work.


The Dubai Magic (2)

Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation
The Dubai Magic (1)

Shanghai has the skyscrapers and the highways and the metro of New York City. In fact, it has surpassed NYC on all of those fronts, perhaps. Shanghai has a bullet train, NYC does not. But Shanghai does not have NYC's cultural diversity. That is where Dubai has surpassed even NYC. More than 80% of the residents in Dubai are from outside. That is quite a ratio. Not only that, it is a major tourist destination.

When you step inside a bank, it feels different from the street you were walking on. All of Dubai feels like one big bank. The architecture of the city is breathtaking. Dubai is ready for take-off. It can be home to the next generation of financial services. If the current crop of financial services are computers, the next generation of financial services are as different as the Internet has been from pre-Internet computers. We are talking of something fundamentally different.

I intend to play a role.

Dubai's the Very Model of a Modern Mideast Economy Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce its dependence on oil. A neighbor has already done it......... For more than 100 years, the Middle East has been defined by oil exploration, production and its boundaries. Now the region is getting repurposed by its aspiration to grow beyond fossil fuel. The shake-up in Saudi Arabia's royal family was as much about becoming a 21st-century economy as it was about rooting out corruption. ........

None of the region's petrostates has moved further from its oilfield roots than Dubai, which has been diversifying its economy since the 1970s.

The result is a thriving gateway to globalization with a superior economic outlook. .......... The most populous of the seven United Arab Emirates and home to more than 200 nationalities .......

Situated within eight flying hours of two-thirds of the world's population, Dubai has the region's busiest international airport

measured in total passengers and fourth-largest airline based on revenue per passenger kilometer....... The relentless commitment to infrastructure development turned Dubai into the Mideast hub for finance, information technology, real estate, shipping and even flowers........

Oil production, which once accounted for 50 percent of Dubai's gross domestic product, contributes less than 1 percent to GDP today.

........... Energy officials in 2016 said renewable energy will account for 25 percent of the emirate's needs in 12 years. Sheikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai, a year ago said that the renewable percentage will rise to 44 percent by 2050. ......... Even as oil prices declined 50 percent in 2014, construction continued unabated for Expo 2020, which aims to showcase "opportunity, mobility and sustainability" with a specific focus on education, financial capital, logistics, natural ecosystems and biodiversity, among other themes. .......... With oil down 37 percent since 2013, the Dubai stock market is up 155 percent and real estate firms are 135 percent more valuable ........ Since 2003, the seven companies that make up the real estate and construction sector of the index produced a 789 percent total return (income plus appreciation), beating the benchmark's 417 percent as well as the 250 percent return for the 242-member Bloomberg World Real Estate Index. No other market in the Persian Gulf comes close to replicating the performance of Dubai real estate. .......... Dubai now is poised to be the growth leader among the six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, with GDP expanding 3 percent or more this year and in 2019











Elon Musk's Giant Blind Spot: Human Beings

There is this no small detail called gravity. It is big, it is fat.



And gravity is physics. And Elon Musk has a degree in physics from U Penn. He must know his physics because he seems to send rockets out into space at will.

But Elon was no biology major, looks like.

There is this funny thing called gravity. The human body needs the earth's gravity. That is why long term human habitation on the moon is a bad idea. Robots? Yes. Human beings? No, no.

In absence of gravity, your eyes might bulge out. Your joints might start getting, well, disjointed. Your bones need gravity to stay bones.

But Elon stays oblivious to the fact. He says everyone who signs up for Mars will get 10 cubic meters of space inside his spaceship, "which is a lot."

And that's just gravity. Radiation will have to be another blog post. Radiation might make those ten cubic meters a microwave experience, which is a lot. Like, too much.

It is not like Elon does not have enough on his plate. There are trillions to be made through robotic asteroid mining. Spices used to be like gold. Gold can become like spices. I want his 10,000 satellites to provide gigabit broadband every point on earth. I like the idea of any point on earth to any other point on earth in 30 minutes. You escape zero gravity before the bones figure it out. Hyperloop is massive. I have an entire real estate tech startup around the Hyperloop concept. Tesla? I want one. Solar tiles on the roof? I want. Super cheap, super boring tunnels? I want them. Although it could get literally boring down there unless the walls of those underground vehicles come alive and are entertainment.

Save earth like this is the only planet we got. There is no other. Plant a trillion trees. Elon should design some drones that will plant those trillion trees. And his satellites should map out the earth to find out every patch of land where trees can be planted. And let's get it done and over with already.

Somebody drop an apple on Elon's head.











Tuesday, October 08, 2019

The Dubai Magic (1)

Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation












Dubai Economy Dubai is an important tourist destination and its port (JebeL Ali) operates at the centre of the exporting trade in the Middle East. With the introduction of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) in 2004, it has allowed Dubai to develop as a global hub for service industries such as IT and finance. ....... Dubai is the second wealthiest emirate in the UAE, after Abu Dhabi which is the capital state. Most tourists believe Dubai’s revenues came primarily from oil but in fact it only used a moderate amount of oil reserves to generate the infrastructure for trade, manufacturing and tourism, in order to build up Dubai's economy. ........

About 95% of Dubai’s Gross Domestic Product is not oil-based. So far oil has accounted for less than one percent of Dubai’s GDP and tourism to produce 20% of the GDP. These figures explain why Dubai has had to become a more dynamic and diversified economy in order to survive the decay of fossil fuels.

......... In the early 1990’s there were only a handful of hotels available for tourists and Dubai never had high oil revenues like Abu Dhabi so something had to change. The Burj Al Project in 1994 (Burj Al Arab Hotel) gave hope to the economy, as a long term strategy, an ambition to become the world’s top tourist destination. ......... Dubai is an international IT hub that serves service industries such as Finance and IT. Dubai Internet City, along with Dubai Media City forms the TECOM (Dubai Technology, Electronic Commerce and Media Free Zone Authority), which is an enclave who houses well-known IT firms such as EMC Corporation, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Oracle Corporation and IBM, and media organisations such as BBC, MBC, CNN, Reuters and Sky News. ...... With an amazing growth rate of 6.1% in 2014, Dubai has again became one of the fastest growing economies in the world. ......

By 2014, Dubai’s largest trading partner was identified to be China followed by India and United States.

......... Based on its air traffic in 2013, Dubai was the 7th most visited countries in the world and it is being expected that Dubai will accommodate more than 15 million visitors by 2016. Dubai has also surfaced as the shopping capital of the Middle East, thanks to its diverse souks and innumerable shopping centres. Dubai is aptly referred to as the ‘City of gold’, as the city houses nearly 250 gold shops. ..........

Dubai has won the bid to host the most awaited Expo 2020, which will give an amazing boost to its economy, and is expected to create over 270,000 jobs.





Here's how Dubai transformed from a fishing village to a global real estate hub The city trails only New York and Shanghai for the number of buildings taller than 150 meters. ........ Dubai’s transformation from a fishing village to a global real estate hub has been nothing short of remarkable. From having the world’s tallest building to man-made islands in the shape of a world map, the U.A.E.’s most populous city has never shied away from ambitious construction projects........ Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, summed up the ambition of his people in a quote: "Dubai will never settle for anything less than first place." .......... Indeed, the city’s economic growth has been nearly unparalleled over the past two decades. Unlike neighboring emirates, Dubai had a modest supply of oil and knew that diversifying their economy would be vital for future success........ In 2002, reforms allowed foreigners to own real estate and that industry boomed overnight. Today, oil accounts for a minuscule 1% of Dubai’s GDP. ........... World’s tallest building – Burj Khalifa ..... World’s tallest hotel – JW Marriott Marquis Hotel....... World’s largest shopping center – Dubai Mall ....... World’s largest indoor theme park – IMG Worlds of Adventure ....... World’s Busiest Airport (International Travelers) – Dubai International Airport ......... World’s longest fully automated metro network – Dubai Metro ...........For a city of only 3.0 million people, Dubai has a remarkable number of skyscrapers. In fact, the city trails only New York and Shanghai for the number of buildings taller than 150m (492ft). ......... during the period of 2007–2014 Dubai essentially kept pace with high-rise development in the United States as a whole. (Dubai’s population is 0.9% the size of the United States.) ...........

In 2009, headlines around the world proclaimed that Dubai’s real estate bubble had finally burst.

........ Going into 2017, there were 11,600 active projects worth over $800 billion. As well, Expo 2020 is expected to add fuel to the twin engines of Dubai’s economy: real estate development and tourism. .......... With the U.A.E. set to further relax foreign ownership roles, the city’s economic prospects remain as sunny as its weather forecast.





































Monday, October 07, 2019

Dubai's Remarkable Economic Transformation



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There are those who say Dubai is remarkable, but there are many cities like Dubai. I see Dubai in a league all its own. There are those who say Dubai is remarkable, but it is now downhill from here. I see that Dubai's best days are ahead still. It will not happen on its own. The effort will have to be made. But I am optimistic it will be made. Dubai is more than one chic city, beautiful to visit. Dubai can be to Pakistan what Hong Kong has been to China. Even today something like 60% of the FDI that goes into China goes through Hong Kong. Before the number was larger. There are things only governments can do. But once Pakistan can get its act straight on the basics like law and order, and infrastructure, I see Dubai playing an indispensable role in the rapid economic rise of Pakistan. For all its remarkable achievements I see Dubai ready for take-off. Dubai today is like China in 1990. I see that kind of graph ahead for the city. And it is dazzling as it is.

When I say Dubai is ready for take-off, that is not just a statement on Dubai the city, remarkable as it is, and the amazing transformation it has achieved in such a short period of time, but primarily a statement on where the world of technology is going. What will happen in tech in the next 25 years will be at least 100 times bigger than what has happened over the past 25 years. And Dubai is in a very good position to benefit from that. That positioning is a win-win for the world. Dubai will rise further and lift up the world with it.

I consider myself a student of Dubai's amazing transformation. I would like to know in great detail how it came to be.

As I see it, some of the future innovation in tech is going to be pretty capital intensive. And it might make sense for the various Gulf countries to channel their investments through Dubai. Dubai already has a reputation. Silicon Valley by now is many places. Silicon Valley always was an idea in the first place. And in thus channeling not only will Dubai rise to the next level, but it will also help every participating country follow its lead and similarly diversify. Diversification is survival at this point. It is diversify or decline for every country in the region. But in diversifying the region will lift the world. It will lift Africa. It will lift South Asia. It will lift the masses in the Middle East itself.

The Blockchain will do to money what the Internet has done to media. Money will be democratized. Look how easy it is to send messages and share photos and video clips today. The dollar a day people will get similar access to financial services. And places like Dubai that will facilitate all that will harvest rich dividends.

I am personally interested in making some moves. Today I had the good fortune to learn the wonderful people at Noor Almuna approved my loan application. And I am so very thankful. I have given to them in writing, I will give them first preference during phase two and phase three of my company. And I will.

But there is also a bigger picture. My real estate tech startup is going to be the first of several companies.

An entrepreneur like me is an artist who needs three buckets of paint. Human capital, financial capital, and physical capital (also known as technology). Indians powered the rise of Silicon Valley. And right now Dubai beats Silicon Valley on visa issues, although it could do even better. Dubai leads on the two buckets. And the third bucket is derivative. And Dubai is in an excellent geographic location. You have large masses in South Asia, and Africa nearby. Those are the next two Chinas.

I am itching to make moves in Dubai.


Dubai Economy
Here's how Dubai transformed from a fishing village to a global real estate hub
Dubai's the Very Model of a Modern Mideast Economy Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce its dependence on oil. A neighbor has already done it.
Dubai Economic Report 2018
How Dubai Became Dubai
Dubai – the future business capital of the world?





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Sunday, October 06, 2019

AI And Fire, I.E. Larry Ellison On Fire

Earlier in the afternoon, Ellison had made the point that the same regulators who are scrutinizing autonomous driving would likely have felt the same way about the invention of fire—too dangerous. Is AI dangerous? “Probably,” Ellison said with a grin. “More dangerous than fire.”

-- Larry Ellison







Oracle’s Larry Ellison on Uber, Tesla, Autonomous Driving, and More







Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Peter Diamandis: Spatial Web, Web 3.0

The Four Converging Technologies Giving Rise to the Spatial Web boundaries between the digital and physical are beginning to fade....... Web 3.0, or the Spatial Web ...... version 1.0, static documents and read-only interactions limited the internet to one-way exchanges. Web 2.0 provided quite an upgrade, introducing multimedia content, interactive web pages, and participatory social media. ..... mediated by two-dimensional screens. .............

the rise of Web 3.0, riding the convergence of high-bandwidth 5G connectivity, rapidly evolving AR eyewear, an emerging trillion-sensor economy, and powerful artificial intelligence.

....... freeing our eyes from the tyranny of the screen ....... convergence of AR, AI, sensors, and blockchain ...... graphics processing units (GPUs)—electric circuits that perform rapid calculations to render images ........ blockchain can now enable distributed GPU processing power, and blockchains specifically dedicated to AR holographic processing are on the rise. ........ cameras and sensors will aggregate real-time data from any environment to seamlessly integrate physical and virtual worlds ....... In healthcare, smart AR glasses will provide physicians with immediately accessible and maximally relevant information (parsed from the entirety of a patient’s medical records and current research) to aid in accurate diagnoses and treatments, freeing doctors to engage in the more human-centric tasks of establishing trust, educating patients and demonstrating empathy. ............. AR will converge with AI, sensors, and blockchain to multiply manufacturer productivity and employee experience. ....... digital guides superimposed on production tables will vastly improve employee accuracy and speed, while minimizing error rates. ........ Boeing brought Skylight’s smart AR glasses to the runway, now used in the manufacturing of hundreds of airplanes. Sure enough—the aerospace giant has now seen a 25 percent drop in production time and near-zero error rates. ........ Jaguar Land Rover, for instance, implemented Bosch’s Re’flekt One AR solution to gear technicians with “x-ray” vision: allowing them to visualize the insides of Range Rover Sport vehicles without removing any dashboards. ........ Perhaps one of the most profitable business opportunities, AR guidance through centralized AI systems will also serve to mitigate supply chain inefficiencies at extraordinary scale. Coordinating moving parts, eliminating the need for manned scanners at each checkpoint, and directing traffic within warehouses, joint AI-AR systems will vastly improve workflow while overseeing quality assurance. ............

“All these technologies that are coming together around artificial intelligence are going to augment the capabilities of the worker and that’s very powerful. I call it Augmented Intelligence. The idea is that you can take someone of a certain skill level and by augmenting them with artificial intelligence via augmented reality and the Internet of Things, you can elevate the skill level of that worker.”

.........Perhaps the most heartening outcome of the AI-AR convergence is that, rather than replacing humans in manufacturing, AR is an ideal interface for human collaboration with AI. And as AI merges with human capital, prepare to see exponential improvements in productivity, professional training, and product quality. ..........

Stacked convergence of blockchain, sensors, AI and AR will disrupt almost every major industry.

......... Because AR requires much more compute power than typical 2D experiences, centralized GPUs and cloud computing systems are hard at work to provide the necessary infrastructure. Nonetheless, the workload is taxing and blockchain may prove the best solution. ........ “I predicted that 90% of computing would eventually reside in the web based cloud… Otoy has created a remarkable technology which moves that last 10%—high-end graphics processing—entirely to the cloud. This is a disruptive and important achievement. In my view, it marks the tipping point where the web replaces the PC as the dominant computing platform of the future.” ............. our future of brick-and-mortar retail will largely lean on blockchain to create the necessary digital links. .....

distributed computing power with blockchain networks like RNDR will democratize AR, boosting global consumer adoption at plummeting price points.









Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Internet Of Things

How the world will change as computers spread into everyday objects The “Internet of Things” will fundamentally change the relationship between consumers and producers ....... by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes. ...... One way to think of it is as the second phase of the internet. ...... a series of unresolved arguments about ownership, data, surveillance, competition and security will spill over from the virtual world into the real one. ...... Flows of data from iot gadgets are just as valuable as those gleaned from Facebook posts or a Google search history.


Drastic falls in cost are powering another computer revolution The first act, in the aftermath of the second world war, brought computing to governments and big corporations. The second brought it to ordinary people, through desktop pcs, laptops and, most recently, smartphones. The third will bring the benefits—and drawbacks—of computerisation to everything else, as it becomes embedded in all sorts of items that are not themselves computers, from factories and toothbrushes to pacemakers and beehives......Countless tiny chips will be woven into buildings, cities, clothes and human bodies, all linked by the internet......... Smart traffic systems will reduce waiting times at traffic lights and better distribute cars through a city. ........ Data from factory robots, for instance, will allow algorithms to predict when they will break down, and schedule maintenance to ensure that does not happen. Implanted sensors will spot early signs of illness in farm animals, and micromanage their feeding. Collectively, those benefits will add up to a more profound change: by gathering and processing vast quantities of data about itself, a computerised world will allow its inhabitants to quantify and analyse all manner of things that used to be intuitive and inexact.......... analogy with another world-changing innovation. Over the past century electricity has allowed consumers and businesses at least in the rich world, access to a fundamental, universally useful good—energy—when and where they needed it.

The IOT aims to do for information what electricity did for energy.

...... total spending on it will reach $520bn by 2021........ the economic impact of the iot could be as much as $11.1trn every year by 2025......... Like most futures, a lot of the iot is already here—it is just not (yet) evenly distributed. ....... The price of computation today is roughly one hundred-millionth what it was in the 1970s ........ a megabyte of data storage in 1956 would have cost around $9,200 ($85,000 in today’s prices). It now costs just $0.00002....... between 1950 and 2010 the amount of number-crunching possible with a kilowatt-hour of energy grew roughly a hundred-billion-fold. ....... In 1860, sending a ten-word telegram from New York to New Orleans cost $2.70 (about $84 in today’s money). These days, speeds are measured in megabits per second. (A megabit is equal to roughly 2,700 ten-word telegrams). Connection speeds of tens of megabits per second can be had for a few tens of dollars a month. ......

51.2% of the world’s population had internet access in 2018, up from 23.1% ten years ago.

........ The final ingredient is a way to gather all the data that a trillion-computer world will generate and to make sense of it all. Modern artificial-intelligence techniques excel at extracting useful patterns from large quantities of raw data. ........ the new sorts of chips that might make the iot work, which will cost less than a cent each and will be able to harvest the energy they need to run from sunlight or ambient heat........ A world of ubiquitous sensors is a world of ubiquitous surveillance. Consumer gadgets stream usage data back to their corporate makers. Smart buildings—from airports to office blocks—can already track the people who move through them in real time. Thirty years of hacks and cyber-attacks have proved that computers are insecure machines. As they spread, so will that insecurity. Miscreants will be able to exploit it remotely and at a huge scale.




Monday, September 16, 2019

Libra And The "Global" Financial System







Will Facebook’s Libra Change the Way the World Banks? The Templars were originally a Catholic military order that took up residence in Jerusalem, where they pledged to protect Christian pilgrims. They created the economic infrastructure for the Crusades, writing promissory notes in France or England that were redeemable in the Levant. A cipher based on the shape of the cross ostensibly guaranteed the notes’ security. In other words, the Templars created a variant on modern international transfer services, five hundred years before the first central bank......... Today, the demand mounts for a similar system, but on a global scale. Billions of people have no access to banks. Countless others endure high fees and slow transactions, especially when sending money across borders. What we consider a global financial system is, in reality, hardly global. Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank of International Settlements, and the Financial Stability Board provide little more than a multilateral veneer over relationships that are primarily bilateral and dominated by commercial and central banks. Even within borders, moving money involves costly processes of settlement and exchange........... A blockchain-type network creates a public ledger, a universally trustworthy account of who owes what. Just as the Templar cipher verified an otherwise forgeable piece of paper, cryptography will ensure that Libra cannot be spent twice or otherwise duplicated. Such technologically guaranteed, artificial scarcity allows cryptocurrencies to operate as money........ Libra will be redeemable at a fixed price for certain established currencies (such as dollars, euros, and yen). Members of the association will deposit assets in the Libra Reserve as backing any time someone wants to buy more Libra. As a result, whereas Bitcoin fluctuates wildly in value, Libra should remain relatively stable. That stability makes Libra potentially useful not only as a store of value but as a medium of exchange. Users will, Facebook argues, be able to send money around the world as easily as they send messages and videos........ In addition to banking the unbanked, Libra could replace traditional intermediaries in cross-border transactions, such as remittances, which amount to more than $600 billion per year. Libra could also end up reducing the power of central banks in countries with weak currencies or strong capital controls, because it will allow people to move their money out of these countries more easily. ......... Facebook is already in the crosshairs of governments around the world, and the stakes are nothing less than the stability of the global economy....... Much of the current financial system is antiquated below the surface. ........ The country with the most to lose from Libra also has the most to gain from a revolution in the global financial system. That country is China. China bans Facebook and forbids trading in cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin) that could circumvent its capital controls. China is also home to the world’s biggest digital payments systems. WeChatPay and AliPay together process as many transactions in a day as the United States does in nine months. They operate only with China’s own currency, the renminbi, and they are centrally controlled, which makes payments easy for the government to access or limit. Facebook’s argument to regulators is that if an American company doesn’t move aggressively into blockchain-based payments, China will. The truth is that Facebook’s entry has accelerated China’s movement in this direction.........

No country is more interested than China in displacing American hegemony over global financial institutions. Cryptocurrency serves that objective.

........ There is also the IMF, whose director, Christine Lagarde, has already hinted at a possible “IMFcoin” based on the IMF-sponsored assets known as Special Drawing Rights......... Money transfer helped the order become one of the wealthiest institutions in medieval Europe—a sprawling financial empire and powerful creditor to kings. After the crusaders were pushed out of the Levant, however, the Templars languished. And then the order collapsed abruptly at the beginning of the fourteenth century.

The French King Philip IV, deeply in debt to the Templars, arrested and tortured many of its members on trumped-up charges of heresy. He eventually convinced the pope to ban the order, coincidentally canceling his debts.

The Templars’ power and wealth were their undoing. Facebook should take heed.