Netizen: 4: Trade

Trump is Getting Desperate We're in an extremely dangerous moment ......... companies, which have been holding back on passing tariff costs on to consumers in the hope that Trump would back down, are getting ready to raise prices. And private surveys, like the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index, suggest that
a significant inflation bump is just around the corner
: .......... Erratic policy that creates uncertainty depresses growth and job creation; tariffs raise prices. Trump has been betting that he’s smarter than economists warning about the downsides of his policies. After all, they’re all at Marxist institutions like … Goldman Sachs. ......... All of this takes place against a political background in which Trump faces massive public disapproval, not just overall but on every issue: ........... one possible effect of the bad economic news may be to induce MAGA to put the real Project 2025 — the plot to destroy American democracy — on an accelerated schedule. ........... Since taking power in 2010 Viktor Orban and Fidesz, the ruling party, have systematically undermined democratic institutions, creating a de facto one-party state. But the process has been gradual and relatively nonviolent: Salami tactics that sliced off effective opposition a bit at a time rather than tanks in the streets and detention camps. ........... Trump and MAGA don’t have the luxury of time. Trump’s approval has already cratered. He inherited an economy with low unemployment and subdued inflation, but is now presiding over a weakening job market and will soon face a burst of inflation, with nobody but himself to blame. ............ if Trump and MAGA want to hold on to power, they’ll have to do so in the face of low public approval and poor economic performance. This, unfortunately, doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t demolish democracy. It does mean that they’ll have to do it quickly and blatantly. ........... Republicans are trying in multiple ways to, in effect, rig the midterm elections. Their actions include a plan for an extreme, mid-decade gerrymandering in Texas that could cost Democrats multiple House seats; attempts to interfere in voting procedures, for example by banning states from accepting mail-in ballots after election day and forcing states to require proof of citizenship. Much of this is clearly unconstitutional, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. ............ right now Trump has immense power, thanks in large part to the cowardice of many of the institutions that should be holding him in check. But he’s also rapidly bleeding support, in large part because he’s completely failing to deliver on his economic promises. ....... And if authoritarianism does come to America, don’t count on it being soft.

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The Economics of Smoot-Hawley 2.0, Part I Tariffs will be very high as far as the eye can see. What does that mean? .......... The Aug. 1 deadline has come and gone, and Donald Trump hasn’t made any trade deals. What some gullible reports call “deals” are at best “frameworks” in which other countries have suggested — without signing anything — that they’ll do things that might help the U.S. economy. For the most part even these understandings are vaporware. For example, the European Union literally has no way to deliver the increased U.S. investment and increased imports of U.S. energy the Trump administration has trumpeted as part of the so-called deal. ........... What we’re left with is that the United States has, for all practical purposes, unilaterally imposed high tariffs. So you should think of Trump’s trade policy as the second coming of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff, effectively reversing the results of 90 years of trade liberalization. In fact, average U.S. tariffs, which were very low just a few months ago, are roughly back to Smoot-Hawley levels. ............. Unless the courts rule Trump’s tariffs illegal — which they clearly are, but I fully expect the Supreme Court to uphold them anyway — Smoot-Hawley 2.0 is the new normal. ........... The effect of tariffs on U.S. growth. Spoiler: significantly negative, but maybe not as bad as you imagine. But big costs for families. ........

what Trump is really waging is mostly a class war against middle- and lower-income Americans rather than a trade war against other countries

......... all of Trump’s tariffs violate solemn agreements — agreements ratified by Congress — that the United States has made in the past. So the Trump tariffs have inflicted massive and possibly irreparable damage on U.S. credibility.