Netizen

Friday, January 16, 2026

16: Iran

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Today, we're releasing Claude Code for marketing.

It does a marketer's work in minutes by browsing, clicking, and posting like a human would.

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— Savannah (@SavannahFeder) January 15, 2026

Similar story: 7th grade math teacher had left my school unexpectedly and so the principal, who had been in WW2, took over math class.

He told amazing and brutal stories of his time in the war, while also doubling the normal curriculum speed to do 2 years of math in 1.

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— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 16, 2026

Carney opens Canada to Chinese EVs, China cuts canola tariffs Xi Jinping and Mark Carney mark a new “strategic partnership.”
Canada Breaks With U.S. to Slash Tariffs on Some Chinese Electric Vehicles China will in turn cut its own tariffs on Canadian canola products, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said in Beijing on Friday.
Analysis: Why a ‘quick and clean’ US attack on Iran won’t be easy Donald Trump has boxed himself in by promising to ‘help’ Iran’s protesters. But he has few good options for military operations that he can control. ......... Illiberal systems often look most permanent just before they change. But moments of upheaval can also produce a different illusion: That the system is one dramatic external blow away from collapse. With Iran convulsed by unprecedented protests against the country’s leadership, it is tempting to imagine that the United States’ air power could deliver the final shove. ........... That temptation misreads how the Islamic Republic actually survives. Coercive cohesion is the cement of the system: The ability of parallel security and political institutions to keep acting together, even when legitimacy erodes. When that cohesion holds, the system absorbs shocks that would more conventional states would fall under. ........... Iran is not a single pyramid with one man at the apex. It is a heterarchical, networked state: Overlapping hubs of power around the Supreme Leader’s office, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence organs, clerical gatekeepers, and a patronage economy. In such a system, removing one node, even the most symbolic one, does not reliably collapse the structure; redundancy and substitute chains of command are a design feature. Decapitation – a prominent narrative after US President Donald Trump’s tactical “success” in Venezuela – thus looks less like a strategy and more like a gamble on chaos. .............. This is why Trump’s dilemma matters. He sits between neoconservative hawks who want regime change by force and an America First base that will not support lengthy wars, post-conflict stabilisation, or another Middle Eastern adventure. The instinct, therefore, is quick-in, quick-out punishment that looks decisive without creating obligations. ............. Regional politics further narrow Trump’s menu. Israel wants Washington to do the heavy lifting against Tehran. Key Gulf interlocutors, notably Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman, have pressed for de-escalation and diplomacy. Operationally, the Gulf’s lack of support for a new campaign might push the US towards military options launched from a distance, making sustained air operations harder to sustain. .............. Trump has also boxed himself in rhetorically. Having warned that if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters”, the US would “come to their rescue”, he has had to signal credible military options even as he suggests diplomacy is preferable and hints that the killing is “stopping”. In practice, this oscillation appears to be less strategic ambiguity and more bargaining and indecision, encouraging every faction around him to believe it can still win the argument. .............
It is important to be clear about what Washington’s inner circle seems to want. The goal is not liberal democracy.
The prize is a pragmatic Iran that can be drawn into a regional geo-economic framework, opened to business with the US, and nudged away from overreliance on China. That implies constraints on nuclear activity, some curbs on ballistic missiles, and a drawdown – real or cosmetic – of Iran’s support for the so-called “axis of resistance”. This is a transformation of posture, not a wholesale replacement of the Islamic Republic. ............ Air power can punish and signal. It can degrade specific facilities. It can raise the cost of repression by authorities. But it cannot reorganise a security sector, arbitrate succession, or deliver a behaviour change. And it cannot protect protesters from the air. Libya in 2011 remains the cautionary tale. Military force, at most, is a high-risk attempt to coerce Iranians to the negotiation table that will likely backfire. ............. The most plausible military scenario is limited standoff punitive strikes, using cruise missiles and long-range munitions against Iranian Revolutionary Guard centres or enabling infrastructure. This fits the “quick and clean” preference and can be framed as punishment rather than war. Its strategic downside is that it hands the Guards an “existential threat” narrative that can legitimise harsher repression, while raising retaliation risk through proxies, shipping disruption, and pressure on US bases in the Gulf. It can also reduce the chance of internal fragmentation by pushing rival factions to rally around the flag. ............. A leadership “decapitation” attempt is more cinematic and less credible. It is the most escalatory option, likely to unify hardliners, and still unlikely to collapse a networked system. ........... A sustained air campaign is the least plausible and the most dangerous. Without Gulf basing and overflight, the logistics push operations towards more distant platforms and thinner sortie generation. Politically, it would violate the America First premise; strategically, it would internationalise the crisis, widen the battlefield, and invite a tit-for-tat escalation cycle that neither side can reliably control. ............. Cyber- and electronic disruption sits in a different category: Lower visibility, sometimes deniable, and potentially compatible with Gulf preferences for avoiding open war. But the effects are uncertain and often temporary, and a networked state can route around disruption. The most realistic outcome is that cyberoperations might accompany other moves, yet they are unlikely to deliver decisive political change on their own. ......... The deeper point is that external shocks rarely produce the specific internal outcome Washington claims to want: A pragmatic transition at the top. Severe outside pressure often hardens a system’s coercive core, because escalating violence is not always confidence; it is frequently panic wearing a uniform. The only durable trigger for transformation is internal: Fractures within the security services or elite splits that create competing centres of authority with incompatible survival strategies. ............... If the US wants to influence those dynamics, it should focus on cohesion-shaping levers rather than dramatic bombing. Maintain deterrence against mass slaughter but avoid promising “rescue” that cannot be delivered without war. Calibrate economic pressure towards the individuals and entities driving violence while leaving credible off-ramps for technocrats and pragmatists who might prefer de-escalation and negotiation. Above all, coordinate with the US’s friends in the region, chief of all Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, who can constrain escalation and translate coercive discourse into bargaining space. ................. The Islamic Republic may still crush this round of protests. It may also rearrange itself internally and survive in a new form. But the anger witnessed on the streets cannot be reined in unless sanctions are lifted and the economy transformed. For that, the regime needs to transform from theocratic paralysis to a more pragmatic system.

Gulf countries gear up diplomacy to stave off US-Iran escalation Gulf nations don’t want the chaos that a US attack on Iran or the collapse of the Islamic Republic would generate. ........ Arab Gulf nations have been watching nervously as neighbouring Iran has been engulfed in nationwide protests. United States President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Tehran – a move many Gulf powers fear would plunge the region into chaos. ............ Behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia has reportedly been lobbying the US administration to refrain from striking Iran, while Qatar and Oman have been focused on diplomatic outreach between Iranian and American officials. The three countries shifted into high-gear diplomacy to de-escalate tensions after reports on Wednesday suggested that contact between Washington and Tehran had broken down, raising fears that an attack was imminent, observers said. .......... Arab Gulf nations fear that a military strike on Iran could disrupt oil prices, shatter their reputation as safe havens for business, and trigger an Iranian retaliation on their soil. ........... Speaking to reporters in the White House later on Wednesday, Trump said he had received information that “the killing in Iran is stopping, is stopped … and there’s no plan for executions”. While some interpreted that as an off-ramp to de-escalation, the US president did not rule out military action. ........... The collapse of Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion, and the chaos that followed – including a deadly civil war, the strengthening of al-Qaeda, and the eventual emergence of ISIL (ISIS) – is an experience Arab Gulf countries do not want to see repeated in a country with a population of more than 90 million, an arsenal of weapons at its disposal, and a badly weakened yet existent network of allies in the region. ............. “They may like to see the Iranian leadership weakened, but all of them are more concerned about a scenario of chaos and uncertainty and the possibility of more radical elements coming to power there,” said Khalaf. ............ Qatar, Kuwait and Oman have found their way to exist with their neighbour on the northern shore of the Gulf – Doha even shares with Tehran the world’s largest natural gas reservoir. ............ The UAE’s Dubai is also a key port for trade with Iran and the two countries enjoy a robust economic partnership. The UAE would therefore greatly suffer from unrest in Iran or an attack on its soil. Still, Emirati officials have remained silent in the past week having diverged from other GCC countries by cozying up to Israel and taking different positions in Sudan and Yemen. ................. Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been arch-foes, but in recent years the rivalry has morphed into a pragmatic relationship based on keeping channels of communication open and preventing each other from escalation. ........... Riyadh is especially wary of regional destabilisation as the Kingdom embarks on a series of ambitious economic reforms to diversify its reliance on oil and boost its tourism sector – goals that require stability at home and in the broader region. .......... “Saudi [Arabia] is not comfortable at all with regime change anywhere – it’s radical and extreme and outcomes are uncertain and risky,” Khalaf added. .......... Riyadh would welcome changes in Iran, especially if they are gradual, bringing about a leadership willing to curtail its nuclear and missile programmes and one that is less opposed to the US. .............. “But a sudden change like a regime change with the risk of the country’s disintegration is not going to be good for anyone,” said Batarfi. “The whole region is on fire and we don’t need to add another fire to our doors.” .............

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— Rohan Pavuluri (@RPavuluri) January 15, 2026

Witkoff indicates US prefers to resolve Iran tensions with diplomacy, not military action US envoy says agreement with Islamic Republic would address nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, Iran’s existing stockpile of enriched material, and its proxies

Not buying RAMs and SSDs in 2025 is basically our generation's “we could’ve bought that land for peanuts.”
— Palak Zatakia (@palakzat) January 12, 2026

America's Gestapo What you can do to stop ICE's mayhem .......... Since Renee Good’s death, clashes between ICE and the residents of Minneapolis have escalated. On Wednesday night, an ICE agent shot and wounded someone who, ICE claimed, was fleeing arrest. (Sure, just like Good supposedly was trying to run them over when she turned her car away from them and said, moments before an agent fired three bullets into her chest and head, “That’s fine, dude. I’m not mad at you.”) ........... I’ve always loved Minneapolis. Its people have midwestern common sense. They also have a deep sense of fairness and justice. ............
The problem is not the protesters. It’s the armed thugs who are shooting and murdering them. (Trump seems capable of seeing a similar dynamic playing out in Iran and vows to protect the protesters there, but not in America.)
............ “There are four kinds of people who join the armed forces: those from a traditional military family, true patriots who want to serve their country, those with no other prospects who need a job, and psychotics who just want to kill people. ............... The armed services do a pretty decent job of screening out the fourth group, but that group is now the prime recruitment pool for ICE. Racists, haters, gun nuts, and cage fighting fans who want to shoot anyone the least bit different from them. They are becoming America’s Gestapo. That is no exaggeration. We’re slipping into Nazi Germany.” ........... ICE is reportedly investing $100 million in what it calls “wartime recruitment” of 10,000 new agents, in addition to the 20,000 already employed. ............ It has lowered its recruitment standards to meet the deportation targets set by Stephen Miller (Trump’s deputy chief of staff for promoting bigotry and nativism), thereby increasing the numbers of untrained and dangerous agents on the streets. ........ ICE’s recruitment is aimed at gun and military enthusiasts and people who listen to right-wing radio, have gone to Ultimate Fighting Championship fights or shopped for guns and tactical gear, live near military bases, and attend NASCAR races. ............ It’s seeking recruits who are willing to perform their “sacred duty” and “defend the homeland” by repelling “foreign invaders.” ........... If I had my way, ICE would be abolished and Border Patrol agents sent back to the border. But this isn’t going to happen under Trump and his Republican lapdogs in Congress. Too many Democrats are almost as spineless when it comes abolishing ICE. ........... But Congress can still take action to rein in ICE. At the very least, it must disarm ICE. ............. Congress is now considering the appropriations bill for the Department of Homeland Security, whose funding runs out at the end of January. ........... House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Wednesday that Democrats will oppose the bill unless Republicans agree to new rules governing ICE officers. “ICE cannot conduct itself as if it’s above the law.” ......... There is no reason for ICE agents to be armed. If they are shot at — and there’s no record of this ever actually happening — they could readily summon state or local police to protect their safety. ............ ICE was designed to be mainly an investigative agency, not a militarized arm of the presidency. ICE agents are not adequately trained to use deadly force. .............. ICE agents prowling our streets in unmarked cars, wearing masks, clad in body armor and carrying long guns, are a clear provocation to violence — both by them and by otherwise law-abiding residents of our towns and cities who feel they must stop their brutality. .............. Trump, Vance, and Miller want to provoke violent confrontations so they can justify even more oppression — including invoking the Insurrection Act, which would allow Trump to call in the regular military. “I’d be allowed to do that,” Trump said in October, referring to the act, “and the courts wouldn’t get involved, nobody would get involved, and I could send the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, I can send anybody I wanted.” .................. Also tell them that the bill must restrict ICE and Border Patrol’s ability to conduct dragnet arrest operations and target people based on their race, language or accent. And the bill must clarify that ICE agents are liable under civil and criminal law if they harm civilians. ............ The Trump regime is telling agents they have “absolute immunity” from criminal prosecution or civil lawsuits if they kill or maim or otherwise hurt civilians. “That guy is protected by absolute immunity,” JD Vance said of the ICE agent who killed Renee Good. “He was doing his job.” ............ DHS went so far as to post a clip of Stephen Miller saying, “You have immunity to perform your duties, and no one — no city official, no state official, no illegal alien, no leftist agitator or domestic insurrectionist — can prevent you from fulfilling your legal obligations and duties.” .......... Rubbish. There’s no such absolute immunity under the law. ............ I hope and expect the state of Minnesota will open a criminal investigation of the agent who murdered Renee Good and, on the basis of the evidence uncovered, prosecute him for murder under state law. ........... To reach your representative or senator, call the U.S. Congressional Switchboard at (202) 224-3121.

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— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) January 16, 2026

I am a woman from a small village in northern Iran.
Jailed for protesting.
Beaten for showing my hair.
Expelled from parliament for exposing their corruption.
Forced into exile.
My sister was paraded on state TV to publicly disown me.
My brother was imprisoned as punishment.
My… pic.twitter.com/jJHuunjLOh
— Masih Alinejad 🏳️ (@AlinejadMasih) January 16, 2026

Today, we're releasing Claude Code for marketing.

It does a marketer's work in minutes by browsing, clicking, and posting like a human would.

The marketing hire is now optional: pic.twitter.com/wWTqg99HQU
— Savannah (@SavannahFeder) January 15, 2026

Pages

Friday, January 16, 2026

16: Iran

It is important to be clear about what Washington’s inner circle seems to want. The goal is not liberal democracy.

The problem is not the protesters. It’s the armed thugs who are shooting and murdering them. (Trump seems capable of seeing a similar dynamic playing out in Iran and vows to protect the protesters there, but not in America.)