Saturday, November 30, 2019

Climate Crisis: Another Perspective

Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong Few have underscored the threat more than student climate activist Greta Thunberg and Green New Deal sponsor Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The latter said, “The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change.” Says Thunberg in her new book, “Around 2030 we will be in a position to set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will lead to the end of our civilization as we know it.” ........... no credible scientific body has ever said climate change threatens the collapse of civilization much less the extinction of the human species ......... It’s not like climate doesn’t matter. It’s that climate change is outweighed by other factors. Earlier this year, researchers found that climate “has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential.”............... but it’s also true that economic development has made us less vulnerable, which is why there was

a 99.7% decline in the death toll from natural disasters since its peak in 1931.

.......... In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did. And that decline occurred over a period when the global population quadrupled. ........ IPCC estimates sea level could rise two feet (0.6 meters) by 2100. Does that sound apocalyptic or even “unmanageable”? ......... Consider that one-third of the Netherlands is below sea level, and some areas are seven meters below sea level. You might object that the Netherlands is rich while Bangladesh is poor. But

the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago.

............ Humans today produce enough food for 10 billion people, or 25% more than we need ........ The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts crop yields increasing 30% by 2050. And the poorest parts of the world, like sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see increases of 80 to 90%. ............ Wheat yields increased 100 to 300% around the world since the 1960s, while a study of 30 models found that yields would decline by 6% for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature............. Rates of future yield growth depend far more on whether poor nations get access to tractors, irrigation, and fertilizer than on climate change, says FAO.......... By 2100, IPCC projects the global economy will be 300 to 500% larger than it is today. Both IPCC and the Nobel-winning Yale economist, William Nordhaus, predict that warming of 2.5°C and 4°C would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) by 2% and 5% over that same period............. Climate change may threaten one million species globally and half of all mammals, reptiles, and amphibians in diverse places like the Albertine Rift in central Africa, home to the endangered mountain gorilla.......... Of the 10 variables that influence fire, “none were as significant… as the anthropogenic variables,” such as building homes near, and managing fires and wood fuel growth within, forests......... “If you want to minimize carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2070 you might want to accelerate the burning of coal in India today,” MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel said. ......... “It doesn’t sound like it makes sense. Coal is terrible for carbon. But it’s by burning a lot of coal that they make themselves wealthier, and by making themselves wealthier they have fewer children, and you don’t have as many people burning carbon, you might be better off in 2070.” .........

the extreme rhetoric is making political agreement on climate change harder.

....... “We shouldn’t be forced to choose between lifting people out of poverty and doing something for the climate.” ....... Happily, there is a plenty of middle ground between climate apocalypse and climate denial.


















Environmental Progress: Founder President
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Monday, November 25, 2019

Tesla Cybertruck Unveil

Why is it called a cybertruck? Why not simply a truck? Is it because it is a lot of software with a little bit of metal and glass thrown in?





Meet the Cybertruck, Tesla's Ford-Fighting Pickup Elon Musk has revealed the latest Tesla model, promising hundreds of miles of range for about $40,000. ....... the top-of-the-line variant, starting at $69,900, will go more than 500 miles between charges, hit 60 mph in under 3 seconds, tow up to 14,000 pounds, and start production in late 2022. ..... Musk spoke to the importance of entering the pickup segment, one of the most popular in the US....... for unclear reasons, it’s bulletproof, at least to a 9-millimeter handgun...... Pickup trucks make up roughly 15 percent of US vehicle sales, a share that has steadily grown since 2009 .......

The Ford F-150 has been the top-selling passenger vehicle in the US for 36 years straight; Americans buy nearly a million every year.

... General Motors nets, on average, $17,000 per pickup. ...... On high-end models with the sorts of options that push sale prices above $100,000, that margin can reach $50,000. ...... The large, expensive vehicles accommodate large, expensive batteries better than a compact sedan does....... Pickup customers are less likely to live in an apartment building than a single-family house where they can install a home charger. On the other hand, public charging infrastructure is hardly developed in the middle of the country where pickups are especially popular. ........ Pickup buyers.. hardly consider fuel economy when shopping. They care about capability and reliability. Plus, compared with other drivers, they’re particularly loyal to their brands of choice.......... For the Cybertruck to succeed the way the Model 3 has, Tesla must steal the customers Ford, GM, Chrysler, and other automakers most value. ....... The Roadster, Model S, Model X, and Model 3 also hit the market well after Musk’s targets. Once they did, they came off the line slowly and with problems.



https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck: Impressive Specs, Killer Price, Polarizing Looks What was revealed has some damned impressive claimed specs — pretty close to Musk’s boasts that it needs to be better than a Ford F-150 and a Porsche 911 — and a price that made the audience gasp. What was revealed also looks like a 32-bit rendering of that truck you tried to doodle in class before you remembered that you’re bad at drawing. It’s a very interesting mixed bag....... The internet is already full of memes based on the looks of the Cybertruck, because the internet remains undefeated. Musk’s “armored personnel carrier from the future” looks like what the Ghost of Video Games Past drives........ the Cybertruck is bulletproof. Tesla claims the 30-times cold-rolled steel body can withstand a 9 mm bullet fired from 10 meters away........ After dropping metal balls from varying heights on sample pieces of traditional car glass (shattered right away) and the Cybertruck’s “armor glass” (never broke), Musk had Tesla chief designer Franz von Holzhausen throw one of the metal balls at the windows of the Cybertruck on stage. Twice. And each time, the window cracked significantly. Musk was quick to point out that nothing broke into the cabin, and joked about fixing it “in post,” but it was an extremely awkward and deeply funny moment that is going to be replayed on TV and online again and again........ we’re still waiting for the new Roadster two years after its reveal


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Give It For Bachchan










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NEOM: Governance

I have been blogging about NEOM much recently. I have read little on the topic, and have said much. But on this one topic, I have read nothing. And here are my comments.

The NEOM territory will be a little bit of Egypt, a little bit of Jordan, and a lot of Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia will let go. That is my impression. The Saudi judiciary will have no jurisdiction over NEOM. That is my impression. That is a decision that has already been made.

Saudi Arabia is dangling a wallet with 500 billion dollars in it. But it has to have the humility to see this is not a 500 billion dollar project. This is at least a five trillion dollar project with most of the money coming from beyond Saudi Arabia. Easy math will tell you, Saudi Arabia will have to be willing to give 90% ownership to others. Which others?

NEOM has to be a fresh start for humanity like America was a fresh start for Europe.

But there is land. It is Saudi land, primarily. And the 500 billion dollar does not count the land. The land eventually is worth more than that wallet. After the city of NEOM is up and standing, NEOM land might fetch Manhattan prices. But that is not now.

Walking away from the Saudi judiciary is fine, that is how you give a place a fresh start, but that can not be walking away from God and faith. Every major faith emphasizes family and marriage.

At some level, this is existential for Saudi Arabia. This is do or die. The world needs to walk away from oil for climate crisis reasons. And oil is on its way to getting priced out. So Saudi Arabia has this window in time to diversify and become a post-oil economy. I think it can. It should. Done right the future riches will be greater than the oil riches. Nokia used to be a timber company long before it became a phone company. Great companies and great countries transform as necessary.

NEOM will be a new city. It will be a city-state. Like the Vatican is its own country. That is what I read somewhere. And I don't see how it could work any other way. 500 billion dollars is but seed money. It is a small amount compared to the ambition.

Heck, NEOM could create a world government. Every country willing to pay 1% of its GDP as an annual membership fee would be welcome to join the world government that would have its seat in NEOM, a city-state, a country of its own. That world government can co-exist with the UN. The UN functions more like an NGO. It does not function much like a government. The whole veto thing is so outdated. The UN can keep doing the UN thing. No problem.

The world government would be funded by that membership fee. It would have two chambers. In the lower chamber each country's voting weight would be in proportion to its population. In the upper chamber it would be in proportion to its GDP.

The world government would have a president directly elected by people all over the planet voting on their phones and tablets, using their biometric IDs. The president of the world would also be president of NEOM, but NEOM would also elect a Prime Minister. And that Prime Minister voted in by all residents of the city who have lived in the city for at least a year, would be the one running the city. The president for the city would be more ceremonial.

The city could have a prince in a ceremonial role. The prince of Saudi Arabia can be the prince of NEOM. Why not? Thanks for all that land.

NEOM should have a permanent seat for the world government. It should also have a permanent seat for the T100, the governing body of the 100 biggest technology companies in the world measured by market cap. Issues like data privacy and data security this T100 needs to solve.

And a Consortium of Cities (CC), an annual gathering of the 100 biggest cities in the world. This would be more like an organization for comparing notes and sharing best practices.

The city would provide all government services digitally. The city would use surveillance cameras to attempt a zero crime rate but would do so with the highest standards for privacy protection. Every time anyone enters or leaves the city, they would have to press the finger and submit their biometric ID. They would also have to be willing to do an iris scan and a face scan.

I understand there is a lot of paranoia around biometric IDs, much of it justified, because those who do it seem to have little respect for privacy protection.

All the high tech stuff would be happening in the private sector with individual companies participating. So when there is a failure it is a company and not the city failing. That demarcation is important. There will be plenty of failures. There is no innovation where there are no failures.

Taxes can be as low as possible. The city might even do the Dubai thing for a few decades and have no taxes. Land development pays enough to run the city.

And those are my early thoughts on NEOM governance.






NEOM Beats Mars
NEOM: Wide Participation Will Enhance Chance Of Success
NEOM, Jerusalem: Twin Cities?
My Take On NEOM, The City
NEOM: A City



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