Netizen

Friday, August 01, 2025

1: Russia

Stocks dive as job numbers disappoint and tariff ‘panic’ sets in The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 770 points (-1.74%) as of 10:00 a.m. ET. The Nasdaq Index was off 544 points (-2.6%) and the S&P fell 122 points (-1.9%). ........ Amidst all this, Trump resumed his public criticisms of Fed chair Jerome Powell, seemingly encouraging the Fed Board to launch a coup. “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, a stubborn MORON, must substantially lower interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote. “IF HE CONTINUES TO REFUSE, THE BOARD SHOULD ASSUME CONTROL, AND DO WHAT EVERYONE KNOWS HAS TO BE DONE!”

In a First, Arab Nations Want Hamas to Disarm
Is Trump's tariffs plan working? Donald Trump has announced fresh tariffs on more than 90 countries, as his deadline to strike trade deals passed this morning. ....... The US president signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from dozens of trade partners, the latest development in the tumultuous tariff tactics he first announced in April. ....... Prices rose after the spring tariffs and "overall" import prices have risen about 3% since March. Automakers, airlines and consumer goods importers have taken the "worst hit", while levies on aluminium and electronics, such as semiconductors, prompted "increased costs" in the tech sector ....... early evidence suggests that tariffs have "failed to inspire a hiring boom", and the "chaotic policy roll-out" is actually contributing to what one manufacturing executive called a "hellacious" landscape. ........ Politically, though, the tariffs are "taming China", said The Spectator. "Trump's madman tactic makes everyone crazy", but it has "frightened the world away" from reliance on a "frequently malevolent Chinese superpower". ............

His "gangsterism" towards the EU is working too, said The New Statesman. Allowing the threat of "withdrawal of all support" for Ukraine to "hover above" economic negotiations with the bloc has been "terribly effective", as shown by the "bizarre deal" the EU announced, under which "European concessions were seemingly exchanged for… more European concessions". If Trump can "extract significant tribute" from "wealthy" Europe in a way past presidents couldn't, "why should Americans vote for anyone else"?

......... The "elephant in the room" is inflation and new data suggests that tariff charges are now "making their way down" supply chains stateside, where American consumers will feel the "squeeze".
If "inflation takes off", Trump may have no choice but to "back down".

The Last Age: Lord Kalki, Prophecy, and the Final War for Peace
The Protocol of Greatness (novel)
A Reorganized UN: Built From Ground Up
The Drum Report: Markets, Tariffs, and the Man in the Basement (novel)
World War III Is Unnecessary
Grounded Greatness: The Case For Smart Surface Transit In Future Cities
The Garden Of Last Debates (novel)
Deported (novel)
Empty Country (novel)
Trump’s Default: The Mist Of Empire (novel)

The 20% Growth Revolution: Nepal’s Path to Prosperity Through Kalkiism
Rethinking Trade: A Blueprint for a Just and Thriving Global Economy
The $500 Billion Pivot: How the India-US Alliance Can Reshape Global Trade
Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible
Formula For Peace In Ukraine
A 2T Cut
Are We Frozen in Time?: Tech Progress, Social Stagnation
The Last Age of War, The First Age of Peace: Lord Kalki, Prophecies, and the Path to Global Redemption
AOC 2028: : The Future of American Progressivism

Listen to "A Tech Incubator for Today" by Paramendra's Books https://t.co/2gIdgwlR3Y. https://t.co/BdAFhFGBZW
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 1, 2025

Donald Trump's economy stung as jobs report falls way below expectations
Biden warns of ‘dark days’ under Trump
Trump's War on Chocolate: 'There's No Way for Us To Source This Domestically'

How Moscow might respond if Trump stops Russian oil to India U.S. President Donald Trump's demand on India to halt Russian oil imports could threaten billions in Russian revenues, prompt Moscow to retaliate by stopping a major U.S.-led oil pipeline and potentially lead to a new global supply crisis. ........ India, the world's third largest oil importer, has become the biggest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, purchasing up to 2 million barrels per day of oil accounting for 2% of global supply. Other top buyers are China and Turkey. .......... The Indian route is so important for the Kremlin that if disrupted it could prompt it to retaliate by closing the CPC pipeline from Kazakhstan, where U.S. oil majors Chevron and Exxon hold big stakes, analysts at JP Morgan said this week........ "Russia is not without leverage," the U.S. bank said. ....... Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a peace deal with Ukraine by August 7-9. A 25% tariff on all U.S. goods imports from India starts on Friday. ......... Reuters reported on Thursday that Indian state refineries had paused purchases of Russian oil this week amid Trump's threats. ........... India only began buying large quantities of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, since 2022. It became a top importer after Europe, Russia's former top client, imposed a ban on Russian oil over its military actions in Ukraine. Russia's oil giant Rosneft has a major stake in one of India's biggest oil refineries. ............... India is now 35% reliant on Russian oil imports worth $50.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, according to India's government data. ....... "Cutting off this flow would require a massive realignment of trade flows," said Aldo Spanjer from BNP Paribas, adding that the global supply was already stretched. ....... India buys all varieties and grades of Russian oil - including Urals from Western ports, ESPO and Sokol from the Pacific and some grades from the Arctic, according to LSEG data. ....... Urals would be hit hardest if India stops buying as it purchases up to 70% of Russia's biggest export grade by volume. India's oil minister said the country can find alternative supply. ....... India would need to raise imports of U.S. and Middle Eastern crude or cut refining runs, leading to a spike in diesel prices, especially in Europe, which imports fuel from India. ......... "Indian refiners will still struggle to replace the heavy quality of Russian crude so they may end up paring runs," said Neil Crosby from Sparta Commodities........... Russian firms will need to store oil on tankers if India stops buying, paying extra money for shipping charges and being forced to offer wide discounts to new buyers ......... Russia could potentially divert some 0.8 million bpd of oil to Egypt, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Brunei, South Africa and Indonesia ......... Moscow could also disrupt the CPC pipeline to make sure the West feels the pain from higher oil prices. Western oil firms Exxon, Chevron, Shell, ENI and TotalEnergies ship up to 1 million bpd via CPC, which has total capacity of 1.7 million bpd. ............. "If we get a visible and substantial difficulty in clearing Russian crude and Putin shuts off CPC, oil prices might get well over $80 per barrel, possibly a lot more," said Crosby. .......

The CPC pipeline crosses Russian territory

and the consortium has clashed with Moscow, which ordered it to suspend operations for several days in 2022 and 2025 citing environmental and tanker regulations....... A combined stoppage of CPC and Russian flows to India would create a disruption of 3.5 million bpd or 3.5% of global supply. ............... "The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices," JP Morgan said.

Global stocks drop as Trump unveils his tariffs
Elon Musk gives millions to Republican super PACs ahead of the midterms
Donald Trump's economy stung as jobs report falls way below expectations
Economy is getting worse under Trump’s leadership, Americans say in new poll on eve of his tariff D-Day

Trump trade wins leave voters, businesses wanting more Recent polls show the president’s job approval rating slipping to the lowest point of his second term and his tariff policy only satisfying about 36 percent of those surveyed ....... there is anxiety among the public that Trump’s tariffs on goods will ultimately be passed down from company to consumer. ......... consumers are still nervous about the end result of Trump’s trade battles ....... “They’re not genuine trade agreements of the traditional sort, which are voluntary in nature — countries negotiate, agree, sign, and then ratify” ......... “These are handshake agreements at the point of a gun, and I don’t see that as a particularly durable way to think about trade policy. So, we’ll see how that plays out.” .........

Listen to "Peace in the Taiwan Strait: A Possible Future" by Paramendra's Books https://t.co/2gIdgwmoTw. https://t.co/1UsK6mYmao
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 1, 2025

Listen to "CEO Functions and Leadership Coaching" by Paramendra's Books https://t.co/2gIdgwmoTw. https://t.co/D6LUnlPATm
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) August 1, 2025

pic.twitter.com/jqY6bSCkK0
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) August 1, 2025

A second mass grave of Irish immigrant railroad workers has been uncovered in Pennsylvania – victims of cholera, violence, and anti-immigrant hate in 1832.

Their story is finally being unearthed. https://t.co/utk4vHtHyy
By William E. Watson, Immaculata University
— The Conversation U.S. (@ConversationUS) August 1, 2025

Trump posted this, you gotta love him 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/8seIlJ70Sy
— Tommy Robinson 🇬🇧 (@TRobinsonNewEra) August 1, 2025

Trump’s ballroom plan, replacing most of the East Wing of the White House, is an overscale, reactionary solution to the genuine question of where to host a big state dinner. https://t.co/Dwg7QmMqyO
— New York Magazine (@NYMag) August 1, 2025

What Empires Taught Us About Moral Clarity

Empires do not begin with evil intentions. They rarely rise from cartoonish villainy or overt declarations of conquest. More often, they are born from a sense of purpose—mission, vision, even virtue. Their architects speak of order, of… pic.twitter.com/zyFR9v2CPN
— Niels Groeneveld (@nigroeneveld) August 1, 2025

The High-Income Trap: When Rich Nations Stop Growing

Just as many developing nations fall into the middle-income trap—unable to compete with low-wage economies on cost or advanced economies on innovation—there is an emerging and under-discussed phenomenon we can call the high-income trap.

🔒 The High-Income Trap: When Rich Nations Stop Growing

The high-income trap refers to the structural stagnation that advanced economies can fall into once they achieve high per capita income, marked by sluggish growth, declining productivity, innovation fatigue, social malaise, and political dysfunction. It is not merely an economic phenomenon, but a complex interplay of cultural, institutional, and moral factors.

Below is a framework outlining the root causes:

🚫 1. Hubris and Complacency

Past success breeds arrogance. Elites and policymakers begin to assume that what worked before will always work.
Historical examples: Postwar Europe in the 1970s; Japan in the 1990s.
This leads to delayed reform, institutional rigidity, and resistance to new global competition.

📉 2. Innovation Deceleration

Diminishing marginal returns on technology. Much of the "low-hanging fruit" of the industrial and digital revolutions has been picked.
Innovation becomes incremental rather than disruptive.
Heavy regulatory regimes, overpatenting, and rent-seeking behavior from incumbent firms discourage fresh entrants.

🛑 3. Over-Financialization

Economies shift from productive sectors to finance, real estate, and speculation.
“Making money off money” becomes more profitable than building goods or services.
Investment in R&D, infrastructure, and human capital shrinks.

🛌 4. Labor Market Rigidities and Aging Populations

Generous welfare and retirement systems discourage workforce participation.
Aging populations strain public resources and shrink the labor base.
Migration, a potential solution, becomes politically unpopular.

📉 5. Declining Social Mobility and Rising Inequality

Wealth concentrates among the elite, while younger generations face higher costs for housing, education, and healthcare.
Meritocracy erodes; inherited wealth dominates.
The resulting economic pessimism fuels political radicalization and civic disengagement.

🧠 6. Educational Stagnation

Advanced economies overinvest in degrees but underinvest in relevant skills.
Bureaucratized universities produce credentials, not creativity.
A generation of overeducated but underproductive workers emerges.

🤖 7. Resistance to Disruption

High-income societies become status-quo preserving, defending existing industries and unions.
Protectionist policies proliferate to “save jobs” instead of re-skilling.
Innovation is stifled by incumbents who lobby to maintain dominance.

🧬 8. Cultural Decay and Loss of Purpose

Comfort leads to nihilism or apathy.
Declining birth rates reflect a loss of confidence in the future.
Hedonism, consumerism, and identity fragmentation displace collective goals.

⚖️ 9. Political Paralysis and Short-Termism

High-income democracies often fall into policy gridlock, with politics dominated by identity issues and partisan warfare.
Long-term structural reforms (tax reform, immigration, green transitions, pension overhauls) are postponed indefinitely.
Lobbyists and entrenched interests dominate legislative processes.

🌍 10. Decline of Global Competitive Spirit

Once at the frontier, nations become insulated.
The “empire mindset”: nations rest on laurels of global dominance.
As emerging markets catch up, the lack of urgency in developed countries leaves them flat-footed.

🧭 Escaping the High-Income Trap

Some economies—like Sweden, South Korea, and Singapore—have shown resilience by continually reinventing themselves through:

Proactive labor market reforms
Lifelong learning and reskilling ecosystems
Aggressive R&D investment
Open immigration policies
Institutional renewal and anti-corruption efforts

💡 Analogy: The Aging Athlete

A country in the high-income trap is like an elite athlete in their 40s who continues training but doesn’t adapt:

They once broke records but now resist new routines.
They rely on reputation, not performance.
They ignore new, younger challengers.

The solution? Reinvention—not just staying in shape, but relearning how to play the game.

जैसे विकासशील देश "मिडल इनकम ट्रैप" में फँस जाते हैं, वैसे ही समृद्ध देश एक नए जाल में फँस सकते हैं जिसे हम कह सकते हैं: "हाई इनकम ट्रैप"।

🔒 हाई इनकम ट्रैप: जब अमीर देश रुक जाते हैं

हाई इनकम ट्रैप उस संरचनात्मक ठहराव (stagnation) को दर्शाता है जिसमें विकसित देश फँस सकते हैं जब वे एक उच्च प्रति व्यक्ति आय स्तर तक पहुँच जाते हैं। इस स्थिति में विकास धीमा पड़ जाता है, उत्पादकता घटती है, नवाचार थम जाता है, और सामाजिक तथा नैतिक पतन शुरू हो जाता है। यह केवल आर्थिक संकट नहीं, बल्कि सांस्कृतिक, संस्थागत, और नैतिक गिरावट का भी मिश्रण है।

यहाँ उन प्रमुख कारणों की रूपरेखा है जो एक देश को इस जाल में फँसा सकते हैं:

🚫 1. अहंकार और आत्मसंतोष

बीते समय की सफलता घमंड को जन्म देती है। नीति-निर्माता मान लेते हैं कि जो पहले काम आया, वही आगे भी काम करेगा।
उदाहरण: 1970 का यूरोप; 1990 का जापान।
इससे सुधार में देरी, संस्थागत जड़ता, और नई प्रतिस्पर्धा का विरोध होता है।

📉 2. नवाचार की मंदी

प्रौद्योगिकी से लाभ के घटते रिटर्न। औद्योगिक और डिजिटल क्रांतियों के अधिकतर फायदे पहले ही मिल चुके हैं।
नवाचार अब क्रांतिकारी नहीं, बल्कि छोटे-छोटे सुधारों तक सीमित हो गया है।
पुराने उद्योगों का एकाधिकार, अत्यधिक नियम-कानून, और पेटेंट-हथियाना नई सोच को हतोत्साहित करता है।

🛑 3. अत्यधिक वित्तीयकरण (Over-financialization)

अर्थव्यवस्था वास्तविक उत्पादक क्षेत्रों से हटकर फाइनेंस और रियल एस्टेट में फंस जाती है।
"पैसे से पैसा बनाना" उत्पाद बनाने से अधिक लाभकारी हो जाता है।
अनुसंधान, बुनियादी ढांचे, और मानव पूंजी में निवेश कम हो जाता है।

🛌 4. श्रम बाज़ार की जड़ता और बढ़ती उम्र की आबादी

उदार सामाजिक सुरक्षा योजनाएँ लोगों को काम से दूर करती हैं।
बुजुर्गों की बढ़ती संख्या संसाधनों पर बोझ डालती है।
प्रवासन, जो समाधान हो सकता है, राजनीतिक रूप से अस्वीकार्य बन जाता है।

📉 5. सामाजिक गतिशीलता में गिरावट और बढ़ती असमानता

संपत्ति अमीरों के पास सिमट जाती है; नई पीढ़ी के लिए घर, शिक्षा और स्वास्थ्य सेवा महँगी होती जाती है।
योग्यता आधारित प्रणाली ढहती है; उत्तराधिकार से सत्ता मिलती है।
यह हताशा राजनीतिक उग्रवाद और सामाजिक विघटन को जन्म देती है।

🧠 6. शिक्षा में ठहराव

उच्च आय वाले देश डिग्रियों में निवेश करते हैं, लेकिन प्रासंगिक कौशल में नहीं।
विश्वविद्यालयों में नौकरशाही ज्ञान से अधिक प्रमाण पत्र उत्पादन का केंद्र बन जाती है।
एक पीढ़ी बनती है जो पढ़ी-लिखी है, परन्तु अप्रभावी।

🤖 7. परिवर्तन का विरोध

अमीर समाज यथास्थिति बनाए रखने में अधिक रूचि रखते हैं।
पुरानी नौकरियों को "बचाने" के नाम पर संरक्षणवाद फैलता है।
मौजूदा कंपनियाँ लॉबीइंग के ज़रिए नवाचार को रोकती हैं।

🧬 8. सांस्कृतिक क्षय और उद्देश्यहीनता

भौतिक सुख-सुविधाएँ लोगों को नीरसता और निराशा की ओर ले जाती हैं।
जन्म दर गिरती है—भविष्य के प्रति भरोसा नहीं रह जाता।
उपभोक्तावाद, पहचान की राजनीति, और आत्म-केन्द्रित सोच समाज को तोड़ते हैं।

⚖️ 9. राजनीतिक पक्षाघात और अल्पकालिक सोच

लोकतंत्र नीति निर्धारण में जकड़ जाता है; मुद्दों पर नहीं, पहचान पर राजनीति होती है।
दीर्घकालिक सुधार (कर प्रणाली, पेंशन सुधार, प्रवासन, ग्रीन ऊर्जा) टाले जाते हैं।
लॉबिस्ट और विशेष हितधारक निर्णय प्रक्रिया पर हावी हो जाते हैं।

🌍 10. वैश्विक प्रतिस्पर्धा की भावना का अंत

जो देश कभी अग्रणी थे, वे अंदरूनी होते जाते हैं।
“साम्राज्य मानसिकता”: अपने पुराने गौरव पर जीते रहना।
जब उभरते देश आगे बढ़ते हैं, ये देश चेतने में देर कर देते हैं।

🧭 हाई इनकम ट्रैप से बाहर निकलना

कुछ देश—जैसे स्वीडन, साउथ कोरिया, और सिंगापुर—ने खुद को इस जाल से बचाया है:

श्रम बाज़ार सुधार
सतत शिक्षा और पुनः-कौशल प्रणाली
अनुसंधान और नवाचार में आक्रामक निवेश
उदार प्रवासन नीति
पारदर्शिता और संस्थागत सुधार

💡 एक उपमा: बूढ़ा एथलीट

हाई इनकम ट्रैप में फँसा देश उस प्रसिद्ध खिलाड़ी की तरह है जो 40 की उम्र में भी उसी पुरानी ट्रेनिंग से खेलने की कोशिश करता है:

कभी उसने रिकॉर्ड तोड़े थे, अब वो सिर्फ़ नाम के बल पर खेल रहा है।
नई रणनीति सीखने को तैयार नहीं।
युवा खिलाड़ियों से प्रतिस्पर्धा नहीं कर पा रहा।

उपाय? पुनर्नवाचार। सिर्फ़ फिट रहना नहीं, बल्कि खेलना फिर से सीखना ज़रूरी है।

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