The World Economy Is on the Brink of Epochal Change Capitalism’s operating system is due for a major upgrade. How that turns out depends on enormously consequential political choices. .......... The world economy is like a supercomputer that churns through trillions of calculations of prices and quantities, and spits out information on incomes, wealth, profits, and jobs. This is effectively how capitalism works—as a highly efficient information-processing system. To do that job, like any computer, capitalism runs on both hardware and software. The hardware is the markets, institutions, and regulatory regimes that make up the economy. The software is the governing economic ideas of the day—in essence, what society has decided the economy is for. ........... Most of the time, the computer works quite well. But now and then, it crashes. Usually when that happens, the world economy just needs a software update—new ideas to address new problems. But sometimes it needs a major hardware modification as well. We are in one of those Control-Alt-Delete moments. Against the background of tariff wars, market angst about U.S. debt, tumbling consumer confidence, and a weakening dollar watched over by a heedless administration, globalization’s American-led era of free trade and open societies is coming to a close. ......... The global economy is getting a hardware refit and trying out a new operating system—in effect, a full reboot, the likes of which we have not seen in nearly a century. To understand why this is happening and what it means, we need to abandon any illusion that the worldwide turn toward right-wing populism and economic nationalism is merely a temporary error, and that everything will eventually snap back to the relatively benign world of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The computer’s architecture is changing, but how this next version of capitalism will work depends a great deal on the software we choose to run on it. The governing ideas about the economy are in flux: We have to decide what the new economic order looks like and whose interests it will
Multiple Lenses on the Russia-Ukraine War: Power, Ideology, and the Elusive Road to Peace
The Russia-Ukraine war is one of the most consequential and multi-layered conflicts of the 21st century. At its surface, it appears to be a territorial invasion by a larger state against a smaller neighbor. But beneath the headlines lie a range of historical, ideological, geopolitical, and psychological dimensions. This is not just about tanks and trenches — it is a conflict that echoes through the halls of empires, democracy movements, and post-colonial reckonings.
Let’s unpack several distinct — yet interconnected — ways to understand the war and its broader implications.
1. Big Powers vs. Small States: Russia’s Monroe Doctrine?
One way to understand Russia’s aggression is through the lens of great power behavior. Vladimir Putin, in asserting that Ukraine should not fall under Western influence or join NATO, is essentially reviving a Russian version of the Monroe Doctrine — the 19th-century U.S. policy that warned European powers to stay out of the Americas.
From this view, Russia is acting not necessarily out of insecurity, but out of hegemonic instinct. It sees Ukraine not as a sovereign country making sovereign decisions, but as a zone of strategic interest, a buffer that must remain under Moscow’s sway.
But the flaw in this argument is exposed by Eastern Europe's voluntary embrace of NATO. Countries like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania wanted to join the alliance — and paid a high price in terms of domestic reforms to do so. These are not puppet states manipulated by Washington; they are nations fleeing the legacy of Soviet domination.
2. Democracy vs. Autocracy: A Global Proxy Battle
Another powerful framing is ideological: this is a war between autocracy and democracy.
Ukraine represents more than just a state on the map — it’s an experiment in democratic development on Russia’s doorstep. A thriving, Western-aligned Ukraine sends a dangerous message to the Russian people: you too could be free.
There’s a reason there’s no Navalny in Estonia or Poland — because those nations, despite their struggles, have functioning democracies and rule of law. But Russia, like Saddam’s Iraq, relies on manufactured external enemies to maintain internal control. Dictatorships often need war or threats of war to justify authoritarian rule, censorship, and domestic repression.
Putin’s regime is no exception. The war sustains the myth of a besieged Russia encircled by hostile NATO forces and moral decay. Ending the war without losing face is not just a matter of diplomacy — it’s existential for the regime’s survival.
3. NATO Expansion: Demand-Driven, Not Imposed
Western critics often cite NATO’s expansion as a provocation. But this interpretation flips cause and effect. NATO didn’t expand because it wanted to “surround” Russia — it expanded because countries formerly dominated by Moscow clamored to join.
They did so because of legitimate fears about Russian revanchism, which have now proven entirely justified. Ukraine’s desire to align with the EU and NATO is not a conspiracy — it is a sovereign choice grounded in the national will.
4. The West’s Hypocrisy in Africa: France the Colonialist, Russia the Liberator?
While the West often frames itself as the defender of democracy, this narrative falters in other parts of the world — especially in West Africa. France’s neocolonial entanglements and economic dominance in former colonies have bred resentment, especially among the youth.
Enter Russia, not with ideals of democracy, but with anti-colonial rhetoric. Wagner mercenaries in Mali and Burkina Faso have positioned Moscow as the new liberator, exploiting the vacuum left by discredited Western influence. This contradiction exposes a truth: democracy and colonialism cannot coexist, and Western policy often fails to uphold its own professed values.
This undermines the West’s moral credibility and hands propaganda victories to Putin on a global scale.
5. The Limits of War: Why the Conflict Is So Hard to Resolve
This war is difficult to end because it's not just a war over territory — it’s a war over systems of governance and legitimacy.
Putin cannot afford to lose. A military defeat could spell political collapse. And yet, the West and Ukraine cannot allow a precedent to be set where aggression and occupation are rewarded. This impasse creates a deadly stalemate.
Further complicating matters, Putin’s methods — from poisoning opponents to assassinating ministers in parking lots — show the ruthlessness with which he consolidates power. For such a leader, peace is a threat, not a goal.
6. Toward a Political Solution: The Case for a Peace Formula
Military options are running thin. Sanctions have weakened Russia but failed to halt the war. Western military aid to Ukraine has enabled resistance but not victory. The “ceasefire-first” model — tried in 2014 and 2015 — has only led to frozen conflicts that later reignited.
A realistic peace formula must acknowledge that regime change in Moscow is not a viable strategy. Instead, it must pursue:
Security guarantees for Ukraine, possibly outside of NATO.
Withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territories.
Phased sanctions relief tied to compliance.
An international security conference, with both Western and non-Western actors involved.
The book Formula for Peace in Ukraine lays out such a framework. It avoids the utopianism of total Russian democratization while not rewarding aggression. A YouTube presentation of the same name makes the case in more accessible form.
Conclusion: Multiple Truths, One Urgent Goal
The Russia-Ukraine war is not a puzzle with a single solution. It is a web of narratives — imperial legacies, ideological clashes, domestic survival strategies, and global hypocrisy. Recognizing this complexity is the first step toward crafting a durable peace.
But peace will not come from tanks or speeches alone. It will require moral clarity, political courage, and strategic creativity from leaders in Kyiv, Moscow, Washington, and beyond.
History is watching. Let it not be said that we were too narrow in our thinking, too divided in our action, or too late in our response. The world needs a roadmap — not for victory, but for peace with justice.
Opinion: Putin is fooling no one -- certainly not Xi In Samarkand, Putin will undoubtedly keep up his triumphant, self-assured demeanor -- but that will fool no one, certainly not Xi, who must be deeply worried about the astonishing collapse of Russia's forces in northeast Ukraine....... Not only is Russia humiliated, Ukraine exuberant, and the West united, but even China, which still expresses support for the Kremlin, is making statements that embarrass Russia. ........ Russia confirmed Xi and Putin would meet on the sidelines of the summit for "very important" talks. China has confirmed Xi's trip, but its foreign minister on Tuesday declined to confirm a meeting with the Russian president. ........ The relationship between Xi and Putin was never one of equals, but now Putin is encountering Xi during one of the most disastrous moments of his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. He will likely seek more support from Xi, who has been generous with words but much less with deeds. ......... China has been reluctant to break the sanctions, or step in to provide a major boost to Russia's dwindling military supplies. If it had, Putin could have avoided the awkward spectacle of seeking weapons from Iran and North Korea, minor, if aggressive powers. .......... Putin needs Xi much more than Xi needs Putin, and that imbalance has grown far greater since their last meeting. ........ he Russian president's suppression of all criticism about the war has taken an expected turn. Those who opposed the "special military operation," have gone to prison, exile or have mostly fallen silent. But now some of the war's most vocal supporters are fuming, enraged by the military's poor performance. (They even call it a "war" -- a word that could not previously be uttered without some consequence.) ........... A strongman cannot afford to be weak, and Putin knows it. ........ For now, there's no chance that Beijing will discard its unofficial alliance with Moscow, even if Russia is a greatly diminished power. Xi wants to be the leader of a global front opposing the US-led liberal democratic order. To do that, he needs to line up support from nations large and small. And Russia remains an important, nuclear-armed nation. ........... Next month, China's Communist Pary will hold its twice-a-decade party congress. Xi, China's most powerful figure since Mao, is expected to secure an unprecedented third term amid a sharp economic slowdown, made worse by his extreme zero-Covid policy. The possibility of a global recession, heightened by Russia's gas wars against Europe, would hit export-reliant China very hard.
Why the U.S. Is Being Ominously Compared to Hungary and Turkey A conversation with Max Fisher, who covers the decline of democracy around the world. ....... That democracy is declining more or less everywhere now. Not necessarily in every country but in every region, in rich and poor countries, old and new democracies. And the decline is incremental but steady, which means that the scale of the change isn’t necessarily obvious until you start looking at the data. ......... What happens is more like what has occurred in Venezuela, say, or Turkey or Hungary. Elected leaders rise within a democracy promising to defeat some threat within, and in the process end up slowly tearing that democracy down. ......... more democracies are in decline today than at any other point in the last century. .......... The United States fits pretty cleanly into what is now a well-established global pattern of democratic backsliding.
Through my blockchain startup I intend to build the most sophisticated digital tools to put at the service of the democracy movement in Russia. The Russian people have to take the lead. The Russian diaspora has to take the lead. I did similar work before Facebook with barely a blog and a mailing list hosted for free by Google. But then we also wrote before computers. It will not hurt to have the tools I intend to build.
Liberty is at risk in the United States. The same tools could be used to take this country to a new Philadelphia. Thomas Jefferson expected a constituent assembly every 30 years or so. It has been way more than 30 years.
Racism is fascism. It is the opposite of liberty.
The same tools will neutralize the surveillance state that is China. But the proof is in the pudding. The work of liberty will take China back to a 10% growth rate, clean energy powered. Perhaps the CCP needs to be broken up like AT&T. Xi is Brezhnev. Perhaps there is an emerging figure in the Chinese Communist Party who successfully pushes the case for political reform.
The same digital tools will turn Saudi Arabia into a republic. The smart monarchies in the Gulf will volunteer to become constitutional monarchies. The not so smart ones will pave the way for repubics.
The same digital tools will take e-Estonia like government services to every poor, nascent democracy on the planet and help build the institutions of democracy.
Voting should be eezy peezy. Noone should be without a digital identity that they can take to the bank that resides on their phones.
Facebook and Twitter did not topple Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. The people did. Facebook and Twitter were just digital tools.
Slowly accepting the fact that having a routine is boring but it can 10x your productivity.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) May 7, 2022
CZ. @cz_binance Let's team up on Africa. Invest in my blockchain startup, like Yahoo invested in Alibaba. Crypto trading can not be the starting point for Africa. So you are not it.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2022
Excited to announce my next adventure with @PanteraCapital. Bear markets are great times to focus on what needs to be built. I write about how I’m fascinated by the concepts of open source money and open source Disney, and why I’m joining Pantera. https://t.co/gBQMzUoHXk
"From my interactions with the a16z team, they can only be described as “Crypto Ocean’s Eleven” consisting of some of the very best hackers, cypherpunks, operators and builders from every corner of the internet." @joandthezhus What a compliment @a16z@pmarca@cdixon
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) July 6, 2022
Urgently recruiting for an assistant to support me in my work for the CIA. Expertise in liver journal will be considered as an advantage pic.twitter.com/DdUZRG9dVH
"'I have this math competition experience, that ... you have to be fast,' [Wang] said. 'But June is the opposite. … If you talk to him for five minutes about some calculus problem, you’d think this guy wouldn’t pass a qualifying exam. He’s very slow.'"https://t.co/WrQRRzd0ge
